Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from this morning's papers.

1. Can Labour promise real choice on economy in 2015? (Independent)

With the next election still two years away, Ed Miliband will keep much of his powder dry a while yet, says an Independent editorial. But pressure is building.

2. George Osborne's case for austerity has just started to wobble (Guardian)

With the IMF and Osborne's favourite economists revising their figures, the pro-cuts argument now lacks intellectual support, says Polly Toynbee.

3. Small solutions should be Miliband’s big idea (Times

One Nation is just a slogan, writes Philip Collins. If Labour looks after the everyday issues everyone will know what it stands for.

4. Will Gove’s schools revolution be just another false start? (Daily Telegraph)

There are encouraging signs of real progress, but Labour may have other ideas in 2015, writes Fraser Nelson.

5. Obama and gun control: no, we can't (Guardian)

If ever Obama must be tempted to bypass Capitol Hill and rule by executive order, it must be now, says a Guardian editorial.

6. The Japanese PM's 'Abenomics' is a revolution that might not change anything at all (Independent)

After more than 20 years in recession ritual persists in Japan, and for most  people life moves along on fixed rails, writes Peter Popham. 

7. Germany should face the German question (Financial Times)

Berlin must show willing to carry the responsibilities of power, writes Philip Stephens.

8. The Boston bombs show how the internet turned kitchen utensils into weapons of terror (Daily Telegraph)

The blood spilled at Monday's marathon attacks is a reminder of how easy it is to build a deadly weapon, says Con Coughlin. 

9. Michael Gove's disdain for experts is typical of the laissez-faire ideologues (Guardian)

Consultation on the new curriculum is closed but no matter, writes David Preistland. Gove, like the rest of his government, will do what he believes in.

10. Thatcher was right – there is no ‘society’ (Financial Times)

Aid for the poor, or distressed regions, must come from the citizens of the country concerned, argues Samuel Brittan.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
Show Hide image

Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

0800 7318496