Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from this morning's papers.

1. The worst thing the Tories can do is catch the Ukip bug (Guardian)

Eastleigh punished Cameron for not finishing his modernisation project, says Jonathan Freedland. Now Conservative voters have somewhere else to go.

2. The case of Brussels and banker bonuses (Financial Times)

Europe has found a way to attack the UK that is sure to be favoured by much of the British public, writes Martin Wolf.

3. Two fingers up, but government not down (Times) (£)

The Eastleigh result means Clegg can still work with Cameron, writes Matthew Parris. That’s more important than any UKIP protest vote.

4. I used to argue when people said 'all parties are all the same’. I don’t now (Daily Telegraph)

Voters are punishing politicians who have lost touch with normal human instincts, says Charles Moore.

5. We have a long way to go before our immigration system is fair and simple (Independent)

I support tough controls on immigration, but the government has focused on the wrong end of the stick, says Labour's shadow immigration minister Chris Bryant.

6. Can Cameron prove himself a winner? (Daily Telegraph)

A new path to prosperity is the only means by which the Prime Minister and the Chancellor can return the Tories to favour, says a Telegraph editorial.

7. The west babbles on, and Assad is the winner (Independent)

Talks in Rome did nothing to hide the fact Syria's people have been betrayed, says Robert Fisk.

8. Grotesque myth that Red Ed leads a 'one nation' party (Daily Mail)

This electoral snub proves the party’s complete disconnection from hard-pressed and striving voters in the south of England, says Simon Heffer.

9. Beware of misreading Eastleigh result (Financial Times)

The by-election is a political, not electoral, problem for David Cameron, writes Robert Shrimsley.

10. What Labour could learn from Hollywood (Guardian)

Persona is as important in politics as it is in the movies, writes Marina Hyde. If only Ed Miliband would dump Ed Balls and recast Alistair Darling.

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Scotland's vast deficit remains an obstacle to independence

Though the country's financial position has improved, independence would still risk severe austerity. 

For the SNP, the annual Scottish public spending figures bring good and bad news. The good news, such as it is, is that Scotland's deficit fell by £1.3bn in 2016/17. The bad news is that it remains £13.3bn or 8.3 per cent of GDP – three times the UK figure of 2.4 per cent (£46.2bn) and vastly higher than the white paper's worst case scenario of £5.5bn. 

These figures, it's important to note, include Scotland's geographic share of North Sea oil and gas revenue. The "oil bonus" that the SNP once boasted of has withered since the collapse in commodity prices. Though revenue rose from £56m the previous year to £208m, this remains a fraction of the £8bn recorded in 2011/12. Total public sector revenue was £312 per person below the UK average, while expenditure was £1,437 higher. Though the SNP is playing down the figures as "a snapshot", the white paper unambiguously stated: "GERS [Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland] is the authoritative publication on Scotland’s public finances". 

As before, Nicola Sturgeon has warned of the threat posed by Brexit to the Scottish economy. But the country's black hole means the risks of independence remain immense. As a new state, Scotland would be forced to pay a premium on its debt, resulting in an even greater fiscal gap. Were it to use the pound without permission, with no independent central bank and no lender of last resort, borrowing costs would rise still further. To offset a Greek-style crisis, Scotland would be forced to impose dramatic austerity. 

Sturgeon is undoubtedly right to warn of the risks of Brexit (particularly of the "hard" variety). But for a large number of Scots, this is merely cause to avoid the added turmoil of independence. Though eventual EU membership would benefit Scotland, its UK trade is worth four times as much as that with Europe. 

Of course, for a true nationalist, economics is irrelevant. Independence is a good in itself and sovereignty always trumps prosperity (a point on which Scottish nationalists align with English Brexiteers). But if Scotland is to ever depart the UK, the SNP will need to win over pragmatists, too. In that quest, Scotland's deficit remains a vast obstacle. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.