Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from this morning's papers.

1. Osborne's in the crosshairs, and the trigger finger is twitching (Daily Telegraph)

His enemies know that if the Chancellor can’t find growth, the Tories are in real trouble, writes Benedict Brogan. 

2. As Osborne reels, why is Balls feeling the heat? (Independent)

There are calls for the shadow chancellor to be replaced - but Balls is one of the few politicians who has the economic experience to rise to the challenge of a crisis, says Steve Richards.

3. With threats and bribes, Gove forces schools to accept his phoney 'freedom' (Guardian)

Through its academies programme, the government is creating a novelty: the first capitalist command economy, writes George Monbiot. 

4. Euro crisis is breeding comics not fascists (Financial Times)

Times may be tough but this is not the 1930s, writes Gideon Rachman. Modern Europe is a richer, less traumatised continent. 

5. 'Benefit tourism' – real or hyped – must be tackled (Independent)

The longer ministers decline to tackle concern about welfare benefits for new migrants, the more likely it is that xenophobes will end up with the field to themselves, says an Independent editorial. 

6. Tories must see the conservative in Cameron (Times

The PM’s modernising instincts are rooted in traditional values, says Rachel Sylvester. His party must realise this is the only way to win.

7. After Eastleigh, the Lib Dems have finally found the fire in their belly (Guardian)

The Lib Dems must now seize the chance to prove they aren't just a fig leaf for the Tories' cruellest cuts, says Polly Toynbee.

8. Cameron condemned to rightward lurches (Financial Times)

The moment to push root-and-branch modernisation has gone, writes Janan Ganesh.

9. Theresa May's human rights stunt (Guardian)

The home secretary's talk of defying Europe's courts is all show, says Conor Gearty. Human rights are now part of our legal system – rightly so.

10. Why 'hi-viz’ will make the police less visible (Daily Telegraph)

Putting bobbies in the yellow jackets that everyone from dustment to builders wears will only reduce police officers' authority, says Philip Johnston. 

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Who will win the Copeland by-election?

Labour face a tricky task in holding onto the seat. 

What’s the Copeland by-election about? That’s the question that will decide who wins it.

The Conservatives want it to be about the nuclear industry, which is the seat’s biggest employer, and Jeremy Corbyn’s long history of opposition to nuclear power.

Labour want it to be about the difficulties of the NHS in Cumbria in general and the future of West Cumberland Hospital in particular.

Who’s winning? Neither party is confident of victory but both sides think it will be close. That Theresa May has visited is a sign of the confidence in Conservative headquarters that, win or lose, Labour will not increase its majority from the six-point lead it held over the Conservatives in May 2015. (It’s always more instructive to talk about vote share rather than raw numbers, in by-elections in particular.)

But her visit may have been counterproductive. Yes, she is the most popular politician in Britain according to all the polls, but in visiting she has added fuel to the fire of Labour’s message that the Conservatives are keeping an anxious eye on the outcome.

Labour strategists feared that “the oxygen” would come out of the campaign if May used her visit to offer a guarantee about West Cumberland Hospital. Instead, she refused to answer, merely hyping up the issue further.

The party is nervous that opposition to Corbyn is going to supress turnout among their voters, but on the Conservative side, there is considerable irritation that May’s visit has made their task harder, too.

Voters know the difference between a by-election and a general election and my hunch is that people will get they can have a free hit on the health question without risking the future of the nuclear factory. That Corbyn has U-Turned on nuclear power only helps.

I said last week that if I knew what the local paper would look like between now and then I would be able to call the outcome. Today the West Cumbria News & Star leads with Downing Street’s refusal to answer questions about West Cumberland Hospital. All the signs favour Labour. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.