Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from this morning's papers.

1. Big trouble from little Cyprus (Financial Times)

The calamity that has struck the island threatens wider damage, writes Martin Wolf.

2. D-Day Budget for would-be Chancellor Ed Balls (Daily Telegraph)

Labour's shadow chancellor is feared in Downing Street, but he has not silenced doubters in his own party, writes Mary Riddell.

3. Press regulation: a victory for the rich, the celebrated and the powerful (Guardian)

This new press regulator is all about revenge, not justice, says Simon Jenkins. It's hard to imagine a more chilling deterrent to serious investigation.

4. Labour's chance to lead fiscal policy (Financial Times)

The party should commit to reducing the ratio of public debt to GDP, writes Nick Pearce.

5. Iraq war: make it impossible to inflict such barbarism again (Guardian)

The US and Britain not only bathed Iraq in blood, they promoted a sectarian war that now threatens the region, says Seumas Milne.

6. No turning back. And no rabbits from hats (Times) (£)

The Chancellor cannot afford any bold or tricksy stunts when deficit reduction is the only course to pursue, says Daniel Finkelstein.

7. The Budget of 2018: Future governments will have to learn how to do more with less (Independent)

For 25 years, tax revenue has been stuck at around 38 per cent of GDP, notes Hamish McRae. No government has been able to increase it.

8. If they had a scintilla of decency, Tony Blair, Alastair Campbell and John Scarlett would not show their faces in public again (Daily Mail)

The former prime minister and his spin doctor have wrought such tragedy and grief in the world that they should be regarded as pariahs, says Max Hastings. 

9. Will George Osborne make his mark or show himself as unambitious? (Daily Telegraph)

This Budget will tell us whether George Osborne is content with going down in history as an unambitious, steady as he goes apparatchik, says Allister Heath.

10. François Hollande: Mr Normal takes a battering (Guardian)

The French president's promise to stabilise and reverse unemployment by the end of the year is looking like yet another broken election pledge, notes a Guardian editorial.

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The Fire Brigades Union reaffiliates to Labour - what does it mean?

Any union rejoining Labour will be welcomed by most in the party - but the impact on the party's internal politics will be smaller than you think.

The Fire Brigades Union (FBU) has voted to reaffiliate to the Labour party, in what is seen as a boost to Jeremy Corbyn. What does it mean for Labour’s internal politics?

Firstly, technically, the FBU has never affliated before as they are notionally part of the civil service - however, following the firefighters' strike in 2004, they decisively broke with Labour.

The main impact will be felt on the floor of Labour party conference. Although the FBU’s membership – at around 38,000 – is too small to have a material effect on the outcome of votes themselves, it will change the tenor of the motions put before party conference.

The FBU’s leadership is not only to the left of most unions in the Trades Union Congress (TUC), it is more inclined to bring motions relating to foreign affairs than other unions with similar politics (it is more internationalist in focus than, say, the PCS, another union that may affiliate due to Corbyn’s leadership). Motions on Israel/Palestine, the nuclear deterrent, and other issues, will find more support from FBU delegates than it has from other affiliated trade unions.

In terms of the balance of power between the affiliated unions themselves, the FBU’s re-entry into Labour politics is unlikely to be much of a gamechanger. Trade union positions, elected by trade union delegates at conference, are unlikely to be moved leftwards by the reaffiliation of the FBU. Unite, the GMB, Unison and Usdaw are all large enough to all-but-guarantee themselves a seat around the NEC. Community, a small centrist union, has already lost its place on the NEC in favour of the bakers’ union, which is more aligned to Tom Watson than Jeremy Corbyn.

Matt Wrack, the FBU’s General Secretary, will be a genuine ally to Corbyn and John McDonnell. Len McCluskey and Dave Prentis were both bounced into endorsing Corbyn by their executives and did so less than wholeheartedly. Tim Roache, the newly-elected General Secretary of the GMB, has publicly supported Corbyn but is seen as a more moderate voice at the TUC. Only Dave Ward of the Communication Workers’ Union, who lent staff and resources to both Corbyn’s campaign team and to the parliamentary staff of Corbyn and McDonnell, is truly on side.

The impact of reaffiliation may be felt more keenly in local parties. The FBU’s membership looks small in real terms compared Unite and Unison have memberships of over a million, while the GMB and Usdaw are around the half-a-million mark, but is much more impressive when you consider that there are just 48,000 firefighters in Britain. This may make them more likely to participate in internal elections than other affiliated trade unionists, just 60,000 of whom voted in the Labour leadership election in 2015. However, it is worth noting that it is statistically unlikely most firefighters are Corbynites - those that are will mostly have already joined themselves. The affiliation, while a morale boost for many in the Labour party, is unlikely to prove as significant to the direction of the party as the outcome of Unison’s general secretary election or the struggle for power at the top of Unite in 2018. 

Stephen Bush is editor of the Staggers, the New Statesman’s political blog.