Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from this morning's papers.

1. Now it’s a battle for the soul of David Cameron (Sunday Telegraph)

Forget the issue of who might make a plausible new leader for the Conservative Party - the question is, can the Prime Minister reinvent himself now that the modernisation project is dead, says Janet Daley.

2. Overburdened, overtaxed, over to you, George (Sunday Times) (£)

This week’s budget must remove the obstacles that prevent job creation, writes David Davis.

3. Secret courts: the Lords must prevent this perversion of true justice (Observer)

The justice and security bill, which would allow secret courts, is pernicious and has no place in this country, says this Observer editorial.

4. My Budget will be tough but it will help people who work hard (Sun on Sunday)

Ahead of delivering his Budget Chancellor George Osborne lays out three-point plan.

5. Britain has a responsibility to ensure tough standards are imposed on the sale of our weapons (Independent on Sunday)

The UN will soon meet to agree a global arms trade treaty and as events in Syria show, thousands of lives depend on on the outcome, write Douglas Alexander and Jim Murphy.

6. There's a fresh way on immigration – and it has the public's support (Observer)

A new survey points the way to a balanced and rational approach to immigration that could win widespread consent, writes Andrew Rawnsley.

7. Why this Budget really is the Chancellor's last chance... (Mail on Sunday)

Michael Ashcroft warns George Osborne that he MUST offer the voters more than just endless austerity.

8. Note to all Tories: calm down, dears (Sunday Telegraph)

The Conservatives need to realise they're on the right path, says Andrew Mitchell.

9. Leveson's liberal friends bring shame upon the left (Observer)

MPs who vote to regulate the press tomorrow are siding against the principles they're meant to uphold, says Nick Cohen.

10. Free speech is too important for all this messy politicking (Sunday Telegraph)

A national wave of revulsion at phone hacking is ending in compromise, brinkmanship and Hugh Grant finally getting to play the tough guy, says Matthew D'Ancona.

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Theresa May's Brexit stance could come at a political cost

The Prime Minister risks raising unrealistic expectations among Leave backers.

Good morning. For Leavers, there's only one more sleep before Christmas: tomorrow Tim Barrow will moonlight as a courier and hand-deliver Theresa May's letter triggering Article 50 to Donald Tusk and Britain's Brexit talks will start.

Well, sort of. That we're pulling the trigger in the middle of, among other things, the French elections means that the EU27 won't meet to discuss May's exit proposals for another month. (So that's one of 23 out of 24 gone!)

The time pressure of the Article 50 process - which, its author Colin Kerr tells Politico was designed with the expulsion of a newly-autocratic regime in mind rather than his native country - disadvantages the exiting nation at the best of times and if there is no clear winner in the German elections in October that will further eat into Britain's negotiating time.

That Nigel Farage has announced that if the Brexit deal doesn't work out he will simply move abroad may mean that Brexit is now a win-win scenario, but heavy tariffs and customs checks seem a heavy price to pay just to get shot of Farage.

What are the prospects for a good deal? As I've written before, May has kept her best card - Britain's status as a net contributor to the EU budget - in play, though the wholesale rejection of the European Court may cause avoidable headaches over aviation and other cross-border issues where, by definition, there must be pooling of sovereignty one way or another.

That speaks to what could yet prove to be May's biggest mistake: she's done a great job of reassuring the Conservative right that she is "one of them" as far as Brexit is concerned. But as polling for BritainThinks shows, that's come at a cost: expectations for our Brexit deal are sky high. More importantly, the average Brexit voter is at odds with the Brexit elite over immigration. David Davis has once again reiterated that immigration will occasionally rise after we leave the EU. A deal in which we pay for single market access, can strike our own trade deals but the numbers of people coming to Britain remain unchanged might work as far as the British economy is concerned. May might yet come to regret avoiding an honest conversation about what that entails with the British public.

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.