Budget 2013: the front pages

The Sun turns on Osborne but much of Fleet Street gives the Budget a cautious thumbs up.

One litmus test of a Budget is how its received by the next day's papers, so here's what Fleet Street made of it all. 

The Sun takes the opportunity to have a swipe at the government over press regulation. The irony is that George Osborne was equally dismayed by the grubby nature of the deal and the presence of Hacked Off at the negotiations.

The Chancellor backed the paper's call for a cut in beer duty but the Sun complains that wine is up by 10p and spirits by 47p, while also expressing its long-standing opposition to the increase in overseas aid ("untouched once again, workers"). 

Team Osborne will be much happier with the front page of Fleet Street's other leading right-wing title, which declares that the Chancellor "seized the mantle of Margaret Thatcher" by supporting home ownership and cutting taxes. "I nearly choked on my toast and marmite," said Osborne this morning of the paper's mock up of him as the Iron Lady.

The Guardian contrasts Osborne's populist maneouvres with the anaemic economic outlook ("growth down, borrowing up"). 

The Telegraph gives a cautious welcome to Osborne's plans to support Britain's "property-owning democracy".

The Times also splashes on Osborne's housing annoucements declaring that the Chancellor has gone "for growth" (although the OBR small print shows that the Budget is forecast to boost GDP by precisely 0%). 

The FT focuses on Osborne's political positioning, while noting that the growth forecast for 2013 has been halved (from 1.2% to just 0.6%). 

The Mirror assails Osborne for his lack of fiscal activism, invoking the poverty of the 1900s. 

The Independent shares the Guardian's verdict, rightly noting that the economic outlook darkened in every respect yesterday. The paper also notes Barclays's decision to use Budget day to hand out £39m in bonuses for nine senior staff.

Finally, the Express gives the Budget the most favourable welcome of all, hailing Osborne's decision to cut beer duty, increase the personal allowance and support home buyers. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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What does François Bayrou's endorsement of Emmanuel Macron mean for the French presidential race?

The support of the perennial candidate for President will boost Macron's morale but won't transform his electoral standing. 

François Bayrou, the leader of the centrist Democratic Movement and a candidate for the French presidency in 2007 and 2012, has endorsed Emmanuel Macron’s bid for the presidency.

What does it mean for the presidential race?  Under the rules of the French electoral system, if no candidate secures more than half the vote in the first round, the top two go through to a run-off.

Since 2013, Marine Le Pen has consistently led in the first round before going down to defeat in the second, regardless of the identity of her opponents, according to the polls.

However, national crises – such as terror attacks or the recent riots following the brutal arrest of a 22-year-old black man, who was sodomised with a police baton – do result in a boost for Le Pen’s standing, as does the ongoing “Penelopegate” scandal about the finances of the centre-right candidate, François Fillon.

Macron performs the most strongly of any candidate in the second round but struggles to make it into the top two in the first. Having eked out a clear lead in second place ahead of Fillon in the wake of Penelopegate, Macron’s lead has fallen back in recent polls after he said that France’s rule in Algeria was a “crime against humanity”.

Although polls show that the lion’s share of Bayrou’s supporters flow to Macron without his presence in the race, with the rest going to Fillon and Le Pen, Macron’s standing has remained unchanged regardless of whether or not Bayrou is in the race or not. So as far as the electoral battlefield is concerned, Bayrou’s decision is not a gamechanger.

But the institutional support of the Democratic Movement will add to the ability of Macron’s new party, En Marche, to get its voters to the polls on election day, though the Democratic Movement has never won a vast number of deputies or regional elections. It will further add to the good news for Macron following a successful visit to London this week, and, his supporters will hope, will transform the mood music around his campaign.

But hopes that a similar pact between Benoît Hamon, the Socialist Party candidate, and Jean-Luc Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the Left Front’s candidate, look increasingly slim, after Mélenchon said that joining up with the Socialists would be like “hanging himself to a hearse”. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.