Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from this morning's papers.

1. Mid Staffs report is right: NHS targets went too far (Guardian)

Without being knee-jerk or top-down, Labour must learn lessons from the failings at Stafford hospital, says Andy Burnham.

2. US must do more than focus on deficit (Financial Times)

A broader, growth-centred agenda is needed to propel the economy, says Lawrence Summers.

3. What a tragedy that we couldn't stop the war in Iraq despite marching in our thousands (Independent)

Forget the expenses scandal: it was Iraq that exploded what trust millions had in our political establishment, says Owen Jones. But the real anguish lies elsewhere.

4. Tories must keep talking about family values (Times

Ructions over gay marriage are no excuse for retreat, says Tim Montgomerie. Update social conservatism, don’t abandon it.

5. Barack Obama is pushing gun control at home, but he's a killer abroad (Guardian)

President Obama's appeals to respect human life in the US are at odds with his backing for drone strikes in foreign parts, writes Gary Younge.

6. This still won't pay the bills for elderly care (Independent)

It has to be asked whether ministers have not taken the coward's way out, says an Independent editorial.

7. Care, inheritance and penalising the thrifty (Daily Mail)

Not only has George Osborne held the inheritance tax threshold at £325,000 since the election, he now reportedly wants it frozen for another five years, notes a Daily Mail editorial.

It’s all down to taboo, mankind’s way of defining ourselves and avoiding chaos, writes Boris Johnson.

9. Cut off NHS head to save the patient (Sun)

Since NHS head David Nicholson refuses to do the decent thing, the Prime Minister must do it for him, says Trevor Kavanagh.

10. Scotland: Britain's real referendum (Guardian)

Bit by bit the arguments and terrain for the 2014 referendum vote are taking sharper shape, says a Guardian editorial.

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Why Chris Grayling is Jeremy Corbyn's secret weapon

The housing crisis is Labour's best asset - and Chris Grayling is making it worse. 

It feels like the classic Conservative story: wait until the election is over, then cancel spending in areas that have the temerity to vote Labour. The electrification of rail routes from Cardiff to Swansea – scrapped. So too is the electrification of the Leeds to Manchester route – and of the Midland main line.

But Crossrail 2, which runs from north to south across London and deep into the capital's outer satellites, including that of Transport Secretary Chris Grayling, will go ahead as planned.

It would be grim but effective politics if the Conservatives were pouring money into the seats they won or lost narrowly. There are 25 seats that the Conservatives can take with a swing of 1 per cent from Labour to Tory, and 30 seats that they would lose with a swing of 1 per cent from Tory to Labour.

It wouldn’t be at all surprising if the Conservatives were making spending decisions with an eye on what you might call the frontline 55. But what they’re actually doing is taking money away from north-west marginal constituencies – and lavishing cash on increasingly Labour London. In doing that, they’re actually making their electoral headache worse.

How so? As I’ve written before, the biggest problem for the Conservatives in the long term is simply that not enough people are getting on the housing ladder. That is hurting them in two ways. The first is straightforward: economically-driven voters are not turning blue when they turn 30 because they are not either on or about to mount the first rungs of the housing ladder. More than half of 30-year-olds were mortgage-payers in 1992, when John Major won an unexpected Conservative majority, while under a third were in 2017, when Theresa May unexpectedly lost hers.

But it is also hurting them because culturally-driven voters are getting on the housing ladder, but by moving out of areas where Labour’s socially-concerned core vote congregates in great numbers, and into formerly safe or at least marginal Conservative seats. That effect has reached what might be its final, and for the Conservatives, deadly form in Brighton. All three of the Brighton constituencies – Hove, Brighton Kemptown and Brighton Pavilion – were Conservative-held in 1992. Now none of them are. In Pavilion they are third, and the smallest majority they have to overcome is 9,868, in Kemptown. The same effect helped reduce Amber Rudd’s majority in Hastings, also in East Sussex, to 346.

The bad news for the Conservatives is that the constituencies of Crawley, Reading, Swindon and in the longer-term, Bracknell, all look like Brightons in the making: although only Reading East fell to Labour this time, all saw swings bigger than the national average and all are seeing increasing migration by culturally-driven left-wing voters away from safe Labour seats. All are seeing what you might call “Hackneyfication”: commuters moving from inner city seats but taking their politics with them.

Add to that forced migration from inner London to seats like Iain Duncan Smith’s in Chingford – once a Conservative fortress, now a razor-thin marginal – and even before you add in the appeal of Jeremy Corbyn’s person and platform, the electoral picture for the Conservatives looks bleak.

(It should go without saying that voters are driven by both economics and culture. The binary I’ve used here is simplistic but helpful to understand the growing demographic pressures on the Conservatives.)

There is actually a solution here for the Tories. It’s both to build more housing but also to rebalance the British economy, because the housing crisis in London and the south is driven by the jobs and connectivity crisis in the rest of the United Kingdom.

Or, instead, they could have a number of measures designed to make London’s economy stride still further ahead of the rest, serviced by 5 per cent mortgages and growing numbers of commuter rail services to facilitate a growing volume of consumers from London’s satellite towns, all of which only increase the electoral pressures on their party. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to domestic and global politics.