Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from this morning's papers.

1. Will Ed Miliband be an Obama or an Hollande?  (Guardian)

The Labour party leader faces a choice he's still not made: to keep ambitions modest, or to offer a genuinely radical vision , says Jonathan Freedland.

2. Why Eastleigh could soon turn beastly  (Daily Telegraph)

As campaigning begins for the parliamentary seat vacated by Chris Huhne, Tory minders try to control their outspoken candidate, Maria Hutchings , write Neil Tweedie and Peter Dominiczak.

3. Why we all love Attenborough  (Independent)

There are people in whose company, because of a million tiny signals, we quickly feel at ease; I would submit that Attenborough has that effect on the whole nation, says Michael McCarthy.

4. This nasty virus could kill off press freedom (Times) (£)

Lord Puttnam has led a sneak attack to sabotage the Defamation Bill and get statutory regulation by the back door, says Matthew Parris.

5. Europe can walk as well as talk  (Financial Times)

A week of hard-won bargains shows the EU is working, says this FT editorial.

6. Whoever wins in Eastleigh, the coalition will lose  (Guardian)

The Eastleigh byelection will highlight the fact that there is no way of knowing if the public support the coalition, says Vernon Bogdanor.

7. Stafford scandal: Let’s face the truth about our uncaring, selfish and cruel NHS  (Daily Telegraph)

We don’t want any Mid Staffs 'scapegoats’ – just the people who are actually to blame, says Charles Moore.

8. RIP landline, you’ll cold-call me no longer (Times)

We’ve got e-mail, G-chat, Twitter and text. The curly-tailed monster in the hallway has had its day, writes Janice Turner.

9. The Wizard of Oz: Cameron's controversial campaign strategist grants a rare interview  (Independent)

Since Lynton Crosby was named as David Cameron's new campaign expert last autumn, speculation has been rife as to what his methods will do for British politics. Paola Totaro is granted a rare interview with the man Boris Johnson (a client) calls the Wizard of Oz.

The prime minister must confront his party with the truth, says the FT.

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What does François Bayrou's endorsement of Emmanuel Macron mean for the French presidential race?

The support of the perennial candidate for President will boost Macron's morale but won't transform his electoral standing. 

François Bayrou, the leader of the centrist Democratic Movement and a candidate for the French presidency in 2007 and 2012, has endorsed Emmanuel Macron’s bid for the presidency.

What does it mean for the presidential race?  Under the rules of the French electoral system, if no candidate secures more than half the vote in the first round, the top two go through to a run-off.

Since 2013, Marine Le Pen has consistently led in the first round before going down to defeat in the second, regardless of the identity of her opponents, according to the polls.

However, national crises – such as terror attacks or the recent riots following the brutal arrest of a 22-year-old black man, who was sodomised with a police baton – do result in a boost for Le Pen’s standing, as does the ongoing “Penelopegate” scandal about the finances of the centre-right candidate, François Fillon.

Macron performs the most strongly of any candidate in the second round but struggles to make it into the top two in the first. Having eked out a clear lead in second place ahead of Fillon in the wake of Penelopegate, Macron’s lead has fallen back in recent polls after he said that France’s rule in Algeria was a “crime against humanity”.

Although polls show that the lion’s share of Bayrou’s supporters flow to Macron without his presence in the race, with the rest going to Fillon and Le Pen, Macron’s standing has remained unchanged regardless of whether or not Bayrou is in the race or not. So as far as the electoral battlefield is concerned, Bayrou’s decision is not a gamechanger.

But the institutional support of the Democratic Movement will add to the ability of Macron’s new party, En Marche, to get its voters to the polls on election day, though the Democratic Movement has never won a vast number of deputies or regional elections. It will further add to the good news for Macron following a successful visit to London this week, and, his supporters will hope, will transform the mood music around his campaign.

But hopes that a similar pact between Benoît Hamon, the Socialist Party candidate, and Jean-Luc Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the Left Front’s candidate, look increasingly slim, after Mélenchon said that joining up with the Socialists would be like “hanging himself to a hearse”. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.