Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from this morning's papers.

1. Cameron is trashing his own party, and it’s not a pretty sight (Daily Telegraph)

Gay marriage is an admirable cause, but if Conservative membership keeps falling at this rate, we will soon enter a new political era, says Peter Oborne.

2. Stafford Hospital, NHS managers, and why money rather than reform sometimes really is the answer (Independent)

A confused, simplistic and narrow debate about the true meaning of NHS reform has been exposed by the appalling neglect of patients in this exceptional case, writes Steve Richards.

3. The five questions Carney must answer (Financial Times)

The next BoE governor must live up to his rock star billing, says Chris Giles.

4. 'No more Mid Staffs' sounds so simple. It will be anything but (Guardian)

The parties were unified but we know that reform in the NHS, though massively necessary, has defeated many politicians, writes Martin Kettle.

5. It isn't those who oppose gay marriage who are the bigots - it is the liberals who demonise them (Daily Mail)

It marks a watershed in modern Britain when the leader of the party to which instinctively conservative people might be expected to look champions social revolution, says Stephen Glover.

6. Why the Tories need a meritocrat's manifesto (Guardian)

Fairness has traditionally been seen as a Labour preserve. But we can find a better way to reach the aspirational underdog, says Dominic Raab.

7. Confused of Westminster seeks a big idea (Times) (£)

Fractious Tories fight their leader and each other, while docile Labour is devoid of a plan, writes David Aaronovitch. The old politics is dying.

8. Turkey and the Kurds: progress on the horizon (Guardian)

If a Kurdish spring happens, the rewards for both sides are significant – not just the end of a conflict that has claimed 40,000 lives, says a Guardian editorial. 

9. Leveson and the Lords (Daily Telegraph)

The Defamation Bill is being used as a backdoor means of introducing state regulation of the press, says a Telegraph leader.

10. Rating agencies must beware of the law (Financial Times)

Free speech is no defence if standards are lowered to please issuers and gain revenues, writes John Gapper.

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After Article 50 is triggered, what happens next?

The UK must prepare for years, if not decades, of negotiating. 

Back in June, when Europe woke to the news of Brexit, the response was muted. “When I first emerged from my haze to go to the European Parliament there was a big sign saying ‘We will miss you’, which was sweet,” Labour MEP Seb Dance remembered at a European Commission event. “The German car industry said we don’t want any disruption of trade.”

But according to Dance – best known for holding up a “He’s Lying” sign behind Nigel Farage’s head – the mood has hardened with the passing months.

The UK is seen as demanding. The Prime Minister’s repeated refusal to guarantee EU citizens’ rights is viewed as toxic. The German car manufacturers now say the EU is more important than British trade. “I am afraid that bonhomie has evaporated,” Dance said. 

On 31 March the UK will trigger Article 50. Doing so will end our period of national soul-searching and begin the formal process of divorce. So what next?

The European Parliament will have its say

In the EU, just as in the UK, the European Parliament will not be the lead negotiator. But it is nevertheless very powerful, because MEPs can vote on the final Brexit deal, and wield, in effect, a veto.

The Parliament’s chief negotiator is Guy Verhofstadt, a committed European who has previously given Remoaners hope with a plan to offer them EU passports. Expect them to tune in en masse to watch when this idea is revived in April (it’s unlikely to succeed, but MEPs want to discuss the principle). 

After Article 50 is triggered, Dance expects MEPs to draw up a resolution setting out its red lines in the Brexit negotiations, and present this to the European Commission.

The European Commission will spearhead negotiations

Although the Parliament may provide the most drama, it is the European Commission, which manages the day-to-day business of the EU, which will lead negotiations. The EU’s chief negotiator is Michel Barnier. 

Barnier is a member of the pan-EU European People’s Party, like Jean-Claude Juncker and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. He has said of the negotiations: “We are ready. Keep calm and negotiate.”

This will be a “deal” of two halves

The Brexit divorce is expected to take 16 to 18 months from March (although this is simply guesswork), which could mean Britain officially Brexits at the start of 2019.

But here’s the thing. The divorce is likely to focus on settling up bills and – hopefully – agreeing a transitional arrangement. This is because the real deal that will shape Britain’s future outside the EU is the trade deal. And there’s no deadline on that. 

As Dance put it: “The duration of that trade agreement will exceed the life of the current Parliament, and might exceed the life of the next as well.”

The trade agreement may look a bit like Ceta

The European Parliament has just approved the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (Ceta) with Canada, a mammoth trade deal which has taken eight years to negotiate. 

One of the main stumbling points in trade deals is agreeing on similar regulatory standards. The UK currently shares regulations with the rest of the UK, so this should speed up the process.

But another obstacle is that national or regional parliaments can vote against a trade deal. In October, the rebellious Belgian region of Wallonia nearly destroyed Ceta. An EU-UK deal would be far more politically sensitive. 

The only way is forward

Lawyers working for the campaign group The People’s Challenge have argued that it will legally be possible for the UK Parliament to revoke Article 50 if the choice is between a terrible deal and no deal at all. 

But other constitutional experts think this is highly unlikely to work – unless a penitent Britain can persuade the rest of the EU to agree to turn back the clock. 

Davor Jancic, who lectures on EU law at Queen Mary University of London, believes Article 50 is irrevocable. 

Jeff King, a professor of law at University College London, is also doubtful, but has this kernel of hope for all the Remainers out there:

“No EU law scholar has suggested that with the agreement of the other 27 member states you cannot allow a member state to withdraw its notice.”

Good luck chanting that at a march. 

Julia Rampen is the editor of The Staggers, The New Statesman's online rolling politics blog. She was previously deputy editor at Mirror Money Online and has worked as a financial journalist for several trade magazines.