Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from this morning's papers.

1. Could Chris Huhne take Nick Clegg or David Cameron with him? (Daily Telegraph)

The by-election in Eastleigh brought about by the Lib Dem's resignation will be fought viciously and will expose every rift in the coalition, writes Peter Oborne.

2. A crisis needs a firewall not a ringfence (Financial Times)

We cannot solve our banking problems until the eurozone does too, says Alistair Darling.

3. Gay marriage: no one can stop this social revolution now (Independent)

Some lives will be improved, a wider signal conveyed about tolerance, but the legalisation of gay marriage will have a negligible effect on the next election, says Steve Richards.

4. The shadow of 1914 falls over the Pacific (Financial Times)

China, like Germany 100 years ago, fears the established power is intent on blocking its ascent, writes Gideon Rachman. 

5. Voters won’t listen if the Tories talk only among themselves (Daily Telegraph)

The Mid-Staffs report demands a united front, but the party is rowing over gay marriage, writes Benedict Brogan.

6. The end of nuclear power? Careful what you wish for (Guardian)

Flawed and stalled as the plans for toxic waste may be, at least they exist, says George Monbiot. There is no way to clean up CO2, the greater evil.

7. There’s no such thing as an MP’s private life (Times) (£)

Chris Huhne’s fall was personal, not political, writes Rachel Sylvester. But in today’s Westminster pressure cooker that counts for nothing.

8. George Osborne: hedging his bets (Guardian)

The Chancellor wants to eat his cake and have it when it comes to banking reform, says a Guardian editorial. 

9. Gay marriage and a split no one wanted (Daily Mail)

In the depths of the worst economic crisis in living memory, the Prime Minister has pushed this fringe obsession to the top of his programme for government, says a Daily Mail editorial.

10. Israel, Palestine and the mapping of power (Guardian)

In portraying politics rather than geography, Ramallah and Jerusalem are displaying instincts as ancient as Ptolemy, writes Tristram Hunt. 

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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