Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from this morning's papers.

1. So you think you know why Blair went to war? (Independent)

Being seen as Bush’s poodle was much safer than being accused of anti-Americanism, writes Steve Richards.

2. Ed Miliband needs to strike home on the mansion tax (Daily Mirror)

The red dividing lines of the 2015 general election are being drawn and the Tories are positioning themselves as defenders of privilege, says Kevin Maguire.

3. Disarmed Europe will face the world alone (Financial Times)

One day Europeans may find that the US military is not there to deal with threats lapping at their frontiers, writes Gideon Rachman.

4. How to turn a housing crisis into a homeless catastrophe (Guardian)

From Westminster to Hull, the bedroom tax is proving to be the ultra-sharp end of three decades of failure to build, says Polly Toynbee.

5. Never mind the rich and poor, what about the middle classes? (Daily Telegraph)

In America, the middle classes are the most courted group in politics, writes Benedict Brogan. But here they have been erased from the debate.

6. Legalising drugs would be the perfect Tory policy (Guardian)

It would save money, aid global security and be tough on crime, writes Ian Birrell. What could appeal to Conservatives more?

7. Supply matters – but so does demand (Financial Times)

The UK needs more innovation, infrastructure and skills, write Robert Skidelsky and Marcus Miller.

8. Manic activity makes for bad government (Daily Telegraph)

David Cameron and the Conservatives should embrace 'masterly inactivity’ – it often yields better results, says George Bridges.

9. A Slippery Slope (Times)

A political bidding war over the mansion tax will inevitably end in higher property charges for the middle classes, says a Times editorial.

10. David Cameron should beware this war on ‘soft’ judges (Independent)

The Prime Minister must be watching Theresa May's manoeuvres with mixed feelings, says an Independent editorial.

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Can Philip Hammond save the Conservatives from public anger at their DUP deal?

The Chancellor has the wriggle room to get close to the DUP's spending increase – but emotion matters more than facts in politics.

The magic money tree exists, and it is growing in Northern Ireland. That’s the attack line that Labour will throw at Theresa May in the wake of her £1bn deal with the DUP to keep her party in office.

It’s worth noting that while £1bn is a big deal in terms of Northern Ireland’s budget – just a touch under £10bn in 2016/17 – as far as the total expenditure of the British government goes, it’s peanuts.

The British government spent £778bn last year – we’re talking about spending an amount of money in Northern Ireland over the course of two years that the NHS loses in pen theft over the course of one in England. To match the increase in relative terms, you’d be looking at a £35bn increase in spending.

But, of course, political arguments are about gut instinct rather than actual numbers. The perception that the streets of Antrim are being paved by gold while the public realm in England, Scotland and Wales falls into disrepair is a real danger to the Conservatives.

But the good news for them is that last year Philip Hammond tweaked his targets to give himself greater headroom in case of a Brexit shock. Now the Tories have experienced a shock of a different kind – a Corbyn shock. That shock was partly due to the Labour leader’s good campaign and May’s bad campaign, but it was also powered by anger at cuts to schools and anger among NHS workers at Jeremy Hunt’s stewardship of the NHS. Conservative MPs have already made it clear to May that the party must not go to the country again while defending cuts to school spending.

Hammond can get to slightly under that £35bn and still stick to his targets. That will mean that the DUP still get to rave about their higher-than-average increase, while avoiding another election in which cuts to schools are front-and-centre. But whether that deprives Labour of their “cuts for you, but not for them” attack line is another question entirely. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to domestic and global politics.

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