Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from this morning's papers.

1. Ed Miliband's 10p tax pledge is smart politics but dumb policy (Observer)

Andrew Rawnsely is unimpressed by the Labour leader's latest gambit...

2. Gordon Brown is dead, long live Gordon Brown (Sunday Times)

.... while Rafael Behr spots a familiar style in the way Ed Miliband plays his politics ...

3. Ed Miliband, the candidate from Planet Zog (Independent on Sunday)

... as does John Rentoul, who thinks the Labour leader lacks dexterity.

4. The meat scandal shows all that is rotten about our free marketeers (Observer)

Will Hutton finds the Conservative party ideologically ill-equipped to deal with another crisis in capitalism.

5. The Red Tops have a repellent new invention - murder trial porn (Independent on Sunday)

Joan Smith takes tabloids to task for demeaning the victims of terrible violent crimes.

6. Welsh Minister baffles himself on gay marriage (Observer)

Barbara Ellen finds David Jones's comments garbled and contradictory.

7. Why I am committed to global tax reform (Observer)

Op-ed, in which George Osborne pledges action on tax avoidance.

8. A drama that beats any Dan Brown plot (Sunday Telegraph)

Peter Stanford picks up some conspiracy theories around Pope Benedict's resignation.

9. Have the lessons of Iraq really been learnt (Independent on Sunday)

Former Liberal Democrat leader Sir Menzies Cambell is disappointed and cross.

10. If the tax rate does fall to 10p it will be because of America (Mail on Sunday)

James Forsyth identifies trans-Atlantic inspiration in Labour policy-making.

 

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Why Theresa May can't end speculation of an early general election

Both Conservative and Labour MPs regard a contest next year as the solution to their problems. 

One of Theresa May’s first acts as a Conservative leadership candidate was to rule out an early general election. After a tumultuous 2015 contest and the EU referendum, her view was that the country required a period of stability (a view shared by voters). Many newly-elected Tory MPs, fearful of a Brexit-inspired Ukip or Liberal Democrat surge, supported her on this condition.

After entering Downing Street, May reaffirmed her stance. “The Prime Minister could not have been clearer,” a senior source told me. “There won’t be an early election.” Maintaining this pledge is an important part of May’s straight-talking image.

But though No.10 has wisely avoided publicly contemplating an election (unlike Gordon Brown), the question refuses to die. The Conservatives have a majority of just 12 - the smallest of any single-party government since 1974 - and, as David Cameron found, legislative defeats almost inevitably follow. May’s vow to lift the ban on new grammar schools looks to many like an unachievable task. Former education secretary Nicky Morgan and former business minister Anna Soubry are among the Tories leading the charge against the measure (which did not feature in the 2015 Conservative manifesto).  

To this problem, an early election appears to be the solution. The Tories retain a substantial opinion poll lead over Labour, the most divided opposition in recent history. An election victory would give May the mandate for new policies that she presently lacks.

“I don’t believe Theresa May wishes to hold an early election which there is evidence that the country doesn’t want and which, given the current state of the Labour Party, might be seen as opportunistic,” Nigel Lawson told today’s Times“If, however, the government were to find that it couldn’t get its legislation through the House of Commons, then a wholly new situation would arise.”

It is not only Conservatives who are keeping the possibility of an early election alive. Many Labour MPs are pleading for one in the belief that it would end Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership. An early contest would also pre-empt the boundary changes planned in 2018, which are forecast to cost the party 23 seats.

For Corbyn, the possibility of an election is a vital means of disciplining MPs. Allies also hope that the failed revolt against his leadership, which Labour members blame for the party’s unpopularity, would allow him to remain leader even if defeated.

Unlike her predecessors, May faces the obstacle of the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act (under which the next election will be on 7 May 2020). Yet it is not an insurmountable one. The legislation can be suspended with the backing of two-thirds of MPs, or through a vote of no confidence in the government. Alternatively, the act could simply be repealed or amended. Labour and the Liberal Democrats, who have demanded an early election, would struggle to resist May if she called their bluff.

To many, it simply looks like an offer too good to refuse. Which is why, however hard May swats this fly, it will keep coming back. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.