Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from this morning's papers.

Morning Call: pick of the papers The ten must-read comment pieces from this morning's papers. 1. 2012: the year we did our best to abandon the natural world (Guardian)

Emissions are rising, ice is melting and yet the response of governments is simply to pretend that none of it is happening, says George Mobiot.

2. Now's the moment for mindfulness (Telegraph)

Make a fresh start in 2013 with the acclaimed technique that clears your head of information overload and allows you to focus on the present, says Judith Woods.

3. We risk a repeat of Dr Beeching’s mistakes (Times)(£)

The man who closed railway lines was right to make cuts, but missed the need to invest in a modern network, says Andrew Adonis.

4. In 2013, seismic events will shape the Middle East (FT) (£)

The region offers no respite to international or local actors, writes David Gardner.

5. Women: don’t even think of applying to this orchestra (Times)(£)

One female player had nine years on probation after having children, writes Neil Fisther.

6. A US warning for the Conservatives: pander to Ukip at your peril(Guardian)

Courting Tea Party voters cost Romney the election. If Cameron isn't careful, Farage's party could cause similar havoc here, says John Kampfner.

7. The Magna Carta: an old piece of parchment that made England a nation – let's celebrate it(Telegraph)

The 800th anniversary of Magna Carta, in 2015, is fast approaching, and we should do it justice, says Philip Johnston.

8. Forty years on, the benefits of EU membership are no longer compelling (Independent)

Then we thought it was a matter of economics, not politics - and we still do today - but the rest of Europe doesn't, says Dominic Lawson.

9. 2013 brings grounds for Tory optimism (Daily Mail)

The Mail remains optimistic that 2013 could be a good year for David Cameron and his party.

10. The lost boys of Sudan's civil war (Independent)

Thousands of children were separated from their families and forced to become soldiers in a country ravaged by war, reports Dan Howden.

 

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There are risks as well as opportunities ahead for George Osborne

The Chancellor is in a tight spot, but expect his political wiles to be on full display, says Spencer Thompson.

The most significant fiscal event of this parliament will take place in late November, when the Chancellor presents the spending review setting out his plans for funding government departments over the next four years. This week, across Whitehall and up and down the country, ministers, lobbyists, advocacy groups and town halls are busily finalising their pitches ahead of Friday’s deadline for submissions to the review

It is difficult to overstate the challenge faced by the Chancellor. Under his current spending forecast and planned protections for the NHS, schools, defence and international aid spending, other areas of government will need to be cut by 16.4 per cent in real terms between 2015/16 and 2019/20. Focusing on services spending outside of protected areas, the cumulative cut will reach 26.5 per cent. Despite this, the Chancellor nonetheless has significant room for manoeuvre.

Firstly, under plans unveiled at the budget, the government intends to expand capital investment significantly in both 2018-19 and 2019-20. Over the last parliament capital spending was cut by around a quarter, but between now and 2019-20 it will grow by almost 20 per cent. How this growth in spending should be distributed across departments and between investment projects should be at the heart of the spending review.

In a paper published on Monday, we highlighted three urgent priorities for any additional capital spending: re-balancing transport investment away from London and the greater South East towards the North of England, a £2bn per year boost in public spending on housebuilding, and £1bn of extra investment per year in energy efficiency improvements for fuel-poor households.

Secondly, despite the tough fiscal environment, the Chancellor has the scope to fund a range of areas of policy in dire need of extra resources. These include social care, where rising costs at a time of falling resources are set to generate a severe funding squeeze for local government, 16-19 education, where many 6th-form and FE colleges are at risk of great financial difficulty, and funding a guaranteed paid job for young people in long-term unemployment. Our paper suggests a range of options for how to put these and other areas of policy on a sustainable funding footing.

There is a political angle to this as well. The Conservatives are keen to be seen as a party representing all working people, as shown by the "blue-collar Conservatism" agenda. In addition, the spending review offers the Conservative party the opportunity to return to ‘Compassionate Conservatism’ as a going concern.  If they are truly serious about being seen in this light, this should be reflected in a social investment agenda pursued through the spending review that promotes employment and secures a future for public services outside the NHS and schools.

This will come at a cost, however. In our paper, we show how the Chancellor could fund our package of proposed policies without increasing the pain on other areas of government, while remaining consistent with the government’s fiscal rules that require him to reach a surplus on overall government borrowing by 2019-20. We do not agree that the Government needs to reach a surplus in that year. But given this target wont be scrapped ahead of the spending review, we suggest that he should target a slightly lower surplus in 2019/20 of £7bn, with the deficit the year before being £2bn higher. In addition, we propose several revenue-raising measures in line with recent government tax policy that together would unlock an additional £5bn of resource for government departments.

Make no mistake, this will be a tough settlement for government departments and for public services. But the Chancellor does have a range of options open as he plans the upcoming spending review. Expect his reputation as a highly political Chancellor to be on full display.

Spencer Thompson is economic analyst at IPPR