Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from this morning's papers.

1. David Cameron should take tips from John Major about Europe (Observer)

Andrew Rawnsley finds important diplomatic lessons in the last Tory Prime Minister's record of Brussels negotiations.

2. A civil servant too effective for his own good (Independent on Sunday)

Cabinet Secretary Sir Jeremy Heywood is a formidable operator, says John Rentoul. No wonder he has so many enemies ...

3. Jeremy's still king of Whitehall, but is his crown slipping? (Mail on Sunday)

... while James Forsyth detects chinks in the Cabinet Secretary's famously formidable armour.

4. No more Mr Tough Guy - enter Obama the peacemaker (Sunday Times)

Andrew Sullivan sees signs of a new radicalism in White House foreign policy.

5. Uncertainty of independence can't be wished away (Scotland on Sunday)

Scotland Secretary Michael Moore MP rules out negotiations on a contingency plan for independence before a referendum. 

6. Cameron gives the game away (Independent on Sunday)

Leading article slams the Prime Minister for abandoning the national interest with a reckless European policy.

7. Face it, we only matter to Obama as part of the EU (Sunday Telegraph)

Peter Oborne finds the founding myth of the Atlanticist Tory party in tatters.

8. The beautiful game embodies everything that's bad about Britain (Observer

Will Hutton sees the ugly side of UK capitalism neatly expressed in the Premier League.

9. Now it's loss of faith in justice that needs fixing (Sunday Telegraph)

The Savile affair exposes grim inadequacy at the heart of the system, writes Matthew D'Ancona.

10. Chilcot's continuing silence on Iraq is an affront to us all (Observer)

Catherine Bennett wonders how the truth about the decision to go to war is still so hard to come by 10 years on.

How Jim Murphy's mistake cost Labour - and helped make Ruth Davidson

Scottish Labour's former leader's great mistake was to run away from Labour's Scottish referendum, not on it.

The strange revival of Conservative Scotland? Another poll from north of the border, this time from the Times and YouGov, shows the Tories experiencing a revival in Scotland, up to 28 per cent of the vote, enough to net seven extra seats from the SNP.

Adding to the Nationalists’ misery, according to the same poll, they would lose East Dunbartonshire to the Liberal Democrats, reducing their strength in the Commons to a still-formidable 47 seats.

It could be worse than the polls suggest, however. In the elections to the Scottish Parliament last year, parties which backed a No vote in the referendum did better in the first-past-the-post seats than the polls would have suggested – thanks to tactical voting by No voters, who backed whichever party had the best chance of beating the SNP.

The strategic insight of Ruth Davidson, the Conservative leader in Scotland, was to to recast her party as the loudest defender of the Union between Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom. She has absorbed large chunks of that vote from the Liberal Democrats and Labour, but, paradoxically, at the Holyrood elections at least, the “Unionist coalition” she assembled helped those parties even though it cost the vote share.

The big thing to watch is not just where the parties of the Union make gains, but where they successfully form strong second-places against whoever the strongest pro-Union party is.

Davidson’s popularity and eye for a good photo opportunity – which came first is an interesting question – mean that the natural benefactor in most places will likely be the Tories.

But it could have been very different. The first politician to hit successfully upon the “last defender of the Union” routine was Ian Murray, the last Labour MP in Scotland, who squeezed both the  Liberal Democrat and Conservative vote in his seat of Edinburgh South.

His then-leader in Scotland, Jim Murphy, had a different idea. He fought the election in 2015 to the SNP’s left, with the slogan of “Whether you’re Yes, or No, the Tories have got to go”.  There were a couple of problems with that approach, as one  former staffer put it: “Firstly, the SNP weren’t going to put the Tories in, and everyone knew it. Secondly, no-one but us wanted to move on [from the referendum]”.

Then again under different leadership, this time under Kezia Dugdale, Scottish Labour once again fought a campaign explicitly to the left of the SNP, promising to increase taxation to blunt cuts devolved from Westminster, and an agnostic position on the referendum. Dugdale said she’d be open to voting to leave the United Kingdom if Britain left the European Union. Senior Scottish Labour figures flirted with the idea that the party might be neutral in a forthcoming election. Once again, the party tried to move on – but no-one else wanted to move on.

How different things might be if instead of running away from their referendum campaign, Jim Murphy had run towards it in 2015. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.

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