Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from this morning's papers.

1. Talk of ‘shirkers’ echoes Victorian past (Financial Times)

If for Beveridge the welfare state was a vehicle for social solidarity, this government uses it as a partisan dividing line, writes Tristram Hunt.

2. Assad could still hold power in Damascus a year from now (Independent)

The rebel insistence that Assad’s departure be a precondition for talks is unrealistic since he controls most of the Syrian population, says Patrick Cockburn.

3. The Tories have a moral mission – and David Cameron should say so (Daily Telegraph)

After Labour’s failures, Conservative reforms are about saving lives rather than money, writes Fraser Nelson.

4. US pivot gives Europe an opportunity (Financial Times)

Atlanticist nominations offer the continent a chance to break free of euro-crisis introversion, says Philip Stephens.

5. Britain and the EU: Europe's lost voices (Guardian)

Pro-Europeans should shed their anxieties, says a Guardian editorial. Voices that have been silent for too long need to make themselves heard.

6. Our interests come first, not those of America (Daily Telegraph)

The United States wants Britain to stay in the European Union for its benefit - not ours, says a Telegraph editorial.

7. A long way to go in our response to sex crimes (Independent)

Weaknesses in the police and criminal justice systems are only part of the problem, says an Independent editorial.

8. Grayling takes one step forward, then one giant step back (Guardian)

The reform of the probation services and closing of creaking Victorian prisons are welcome – but the plan for new mega-jails is a disaster, says Ian Birrell.

9. To do or not to do – that is the PM’s question (Times) (£)

If David Cameron wants to win in 2015 he must find a big problem to take on, says Philip Collins. Championing care of the elderly fits the bill.

10. Europe offers the best deal for Britain (Guardian)

Britain's future in Europe must be defined by its national interests, not those of the Conservative Party, says Menzies Campbell.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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