Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from this morning's papers.

1. The logic of David Cameron's cry for optimism is: vote Labour (Guardian)

It's tempting to side with conservative Eeyores, writes Gaby Hinsliff. But from peace in Ulster to US healthcare, the progressive case is clear.

2. The new prisoners of ideology (Financial Times)

The parties of the right have forsaken centrist broad appeal, says Philip Stephens.

3. I blame the English for India’s backwardness (Times) (£)

The country’s terrible problems can be traced back to those who brought in a culture of pettifogging regulation, writes Philip Collins.

4. Greece's only certainty in 2013? Predictions are futile (Guardian)

Forecasts of collapse, 'Grexit' and even civil war proved unfounded but Greek society is under immense pressure, says Nick Malkoutzis.

5. Making welfare simple is fiendishly complex (Daily Telegraph)

It is vital that Iain Duncan Smith's heroic attempt to bring simplicity to the chaos of the welfare system succeeds, says a Telegraph editorial.

6. Where was Willetts's concern for the disadvantaged? (Independent)

The Universities Minister's professed concern for white working class boys is risible, says Joan Smith.

7. The decline of western dominance (Financial Times)

Developing countries now account for about half of total world output, writes Samuel Brittan.

8. An unfair policy that fails on every test (Daily Mail)

The removal of child benefit from higher earners makes a mockery of David Cameron’s promise to stand up for the traditional family, says a Daily Mail editorial.

9. The Falklands: another way forward (Guardian)

The governments of the UK and Argentina would do well to look to the island of Tromelin for a model for their negotiations, says a Guardian editorial.

10. Our robotic revolution is only just beginning to gather steam (Daily Telegraph)

Robots offer the potential for unlimited economic growth - as well as a helping hand about the house, says Jeremy Warner.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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