Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from this morning's papers.

1. A-level reforms: Michael Gove's bid to grab headlines will merely narrow pupils' learning (Guardian)

The education secretary, an ex-journalist, knows how to sell reforms for the rightwing press, writes Peter Wilby. But it's no way to run our schools.

2. Coalition's constituency boundary reforms are a complete mess and an insult to voters (Daily Mail)

Trust will be reduced, confidence eroded and the political class once again will lose public faith for playing irrelevant games, writes David Blunkett.

3. Could the Tories' plan for re-election in 2015 cost just 10p? (Guardian)

A new tax band might entice hard-hit voters to look again at the party, and would be billed as righting a Labour wrong, writes Gavin Kelly. 

4. Modern Essex man who has the key to victory (Times) (£)

Europe alone won’t be enough to win in 2015, writes Tim Montgomerie. The Conservatives must become the party of the little people.

5. Why the left should support a referendum on Europe (Guardian)

 The EU is an elite project without popular support, says Vernon Bogdanor. Labour can bring it back to the people.

6. Only a coward would deny the people their voice on Europe (Daily Telegraph)

Ed Miliband's rejection of an in-out EU referendum is blatantly undemocratic, argues Boris Johnson.

7. Time to decide on UK defence policy (Financial Times)

Cameron must scale back either the rhetoric or the cuts, says an FT editorial. 

8. What my generation can learn from the Holocaust (Independent)

We should recall that hatred continues to be fanned against entire peoples, and that man is capable of both wonderful benevolence and unspeakable horrors, writes Owen Jones.

9. We need a big speech on the economy now (Sun)

The measures planned by new Bank of England governor Mark Carney will be controversial, writes Trevor Kavanagh. Cameron must explain them to voters worried about their jobs and savings.

10. An open letter to Nick Clegg on the matter of his children possibly being educated privately (Independent)

The Deputy Prime Minister, educated at Westminster School himself, says the State sector isn't good enough for his children, writes John O'Farrell. He doesn't know what he's talking about.

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Who will win in Manchester Gorton?

Will Labour lose in Manchester Gorton?

The death of Gerald Kaufman will trigger a by-election in his Manchester Gorton seat, which has been Labour-held since 1935.

Coming so soon after the disappointing results in Copeland – where the seat was lost to the Tories – and Stoke – where the party lost vote share – some overly excitable commentators are talking up the possibility of an upset in the Manchester seat.

But Gorton is very different to Stoke-on-Trent and to Copeland. The Labour lead is 56 points, compared to 16.5 points in Stoke-on-Trent and 6.5 points in Copeland. (As I’ve written before and will doubtless write again, it’s much more instructive to talk about vote share rather than vote numbers in British elections. Most of the country tends to vote in the same way even if they vote at different volumes.)

That 47 per cent of the seat's residents come from a non-white background and that the Labour party holds every council seat in the constituency only adds to the party's strong position here. 

But that doesn’t mean that there is no interest to be had in the contest at all. That the seat voted heavily to remain in the European Union – around 65 per cent according to Chris Hanretty’s estimates – will provide a glimmer of hope to the Liberal Democrats that they can finish a strong second, as they did consistently from 1992 to 2010, before slumping to fifth in 2015.

How they do in second place will inform how jittery Labour MPs with smaller majorities and a history of Liberal Democrat activity are about Labour’s embrace of Brexit.

They also have a narrow chance of becoming competitive should Labour’s selection turn acrimonious. The seat has been in special measures since 2004, which means the selection will be run by the party’s national executive committee, though several local candidates are tipped to run, with Afzal Khan,  a local MEP, and Julie Reid, a local councillor, both expected to run for the vacant seats.

It’s highly unlikely but if the selection occurs in a way that irritates the local party or provokes serious local in-fighting, you can just about see how the Liberal Democrats give everyone a surprise. But it’s about as likely as the United States men landing on Mars any time soon – plausible, but far-fetched. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.