Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from this morning's papers.

1. The logic of David Cameron's cry for optimism is: vote Labour (Guardian)

It's tempting to side with conservative Eeyores, writes Gaby Hinsliff. But from peace in Ulster to US healthcare, the progressive case is clear.

2. The new prisoners of ideology (Financial Times)

The parties of the right have forsaken centrist broad appeal, says Philip Stephens.

3. I blame the English for India’s backwardness (Times) (£)

The country’s terrible problems can be traced back to those who brought in a culture of pettifogging regulation, writes Philip Collins.

4. Greece's only certainty in 2013? Predictions are futile (Guardian)

Forecasts of collapse, 'Grexit' and even civil war proved unfounded but Greek society is under immense pressure, says Nick Malkoutzis.

5. Making welfare simple is fiendishly complex (Daily Telegraph)

It is vital that Iain Duncan Smith's heroic attempt to bring simplicity to the chaos of the welfare system succeeds, says a Telegraph editorial.

6. Where was Willetts's concern for the disadvantaged? (Independent)

The Universities Minister's professed concern for white working class boys is risible, says Joan Smith.

7. The decline of western dominance (Financial Times)

Developing countries now account for about half of total world output, writes Samuel Brittan.

8. An unfair policy that fails on every test (Daily Mail)

The removal of child benefit from higher earners makes a mockery of David Cameron’s promise to stand up for the traditional family, says a Daily Mail editorial.

9. The Falklands: another way forward (Guardian)

The governments of the UK and Argentina would do well to look to the island of Tromelin for a model for their negotiations, says a Guardian editorial.

10. Our robotic revolution is only just beginning to gather steam (Daily Telegraph)

Robots offer the potential for unlimited economic growth - as well as a helping hand about the house, says Jeremy Warner.

Jeremy Corbyn, Labour leader. Getty
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Will Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn become Prime Minister after the 2017 general election?

Can Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn win the 2017 general election? 

Jeremy Corbyn could be the next prime minister. Admittedly, it’s highly unlikely. After less than two years as Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn is leading the party into a snap general election. Labour behind in the latest general election polls and underperformed badly in the recent local elections. But since the election was called, Labour’s position in the polls has been improving. Can we trust the general election polls?

This isn’t the first vote of national significance since his election, however, since he was in office during the 2016 EU referendum. It’s also not Corbyn’s first serious challenge: after the Brexit vote, his MPs voted “no confidence” in him and Owen Smith challenged him for the leadership. Corbyn saw off that threat to his position convincingly, so can he pull out another electoral triumph and become prime minister? 

Can Jeremy Corbyn become prime minister after the general election 2017?

Do the polls predict a Labour victory?

Since May 2015, the Conservative Party has consistently led in the polls. The latest polls give Labour ratings in the mid 30s, while the Conservatives are on the mid-40s. Recent improvements in Labour’s standing still leave Jeremy Corbyn a long way from becoming prime minister.

But should we believe the general election polls? Glen O’Hara, professor of modern and contemporary history at Oxford Brookes University, points out that the polls have been wrong before, and could be overstating Labour’s collapse. However, a 20-point gap is far outside the margin of error. A Corbyn win would be an unprecedented upset.

What is Labour's record on elections?

At the 2016 local elections, Labour did not gain any councils and lost 18 seats and 4 per cent of the vote. James Schneider, the co-founder of Momentum who is now Corbyn’s head of strategic communications, said this showed Labour was on the right trajectory, but it’s a disappointment for an opposition to make no gains. And at the Copeland by-election this February, Labour lost the seat to the Tories – the first government gain in a by-election since 1982.

Can Jeremy Corbyn become prime minister? The verdict

Jeremy Corbyn’s path to power would be one of the greatest surprises in British politics. But unlikely doesn’t mean impossible. It would take some extraordinary events, but it could happen. Check out the latest odds to see how the markets rate his chances.

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