Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from this morning's papers.

1. America’s fiscal policy is not in crisis (Financial Times)

The most urgent challenge is to promote economic recovery, says Martin Wolf, not reduce the deficit. 

2. What the latest conflict in north Africa tells us about the meaning of 'war on terror' (Independent)

To try and draw simplistic lines between good and bad will only help those seeking to unify those with ethnic, regional and international grievances, writes Douglas Alexander.

3. Mali: the fastest blowback yet in this disastrous war on terror (Guardian)

French intervention in Mali will fuel terrorism, but the west's buildup in Africa is also driven by the struggle for resources, writes Seumas Milne.

4. Fear of the grey vote has turned politicians into cowards (Daily Telegraph)

Wealthy pensioners must pay their fair share to finance childcare and social care bills, argues Mary Riddell. 

5. Trident will not protect us (Guardian)

Britain can't justify these military cuts without looking at the billions spent on nuclear weapons, says Liberal Democrat armed forces minister Nick Harvey. 

6. It’s not a fight against ‘us’. It’s Islam v Islam (Times) (£)

The new "war on terror" won’t be won by armies, but by helping moderate Muslim governments defeat extremism, says Paddy Ashdown.

7. An African crusade is lunacy when cuts have left us barely enough soldiers to troop the colour (Daily Mail)

David Cameron should not have sent a single British aircraft anywhere near his French counterpart’s rash African adventure, says Max Hastings.

8. Climate change is back on the agenda, at last (Independent)

Warnings of the economic risks of global warming should help focus minds at Davos, says an Independent editorial. 

9. Wars like Afghanistan should never be a theatre for celebrity (Guardian)

Prince Harry may shine as a soldier, but he's just a pawn in a political game – adding celebrity dust to a senseless conflict, says Simon Jenkins. 

10. Whitehall can learn from London 2012 (Financial Times)

The games hold plenty of pointers to effective and successful delivery, writes Peter Riddell.

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Is Britain about to leave the European Union?

A series of bad polls have pro-Europeans panicked. Are they right?

Is this what Brexit looks like? A batch of polls all show significant movement towards a Leave vote. ORB, a phone pollster, has Leave up four points to 46 per cent, with Remain’s leave cut to four points. ICM’s online poll has Leave up three points, putting Brexit ahead of Remain by 52 per cent to 48 per cent once don’t-knows are excluded. ICM’s phone poll shows Leave up six points, a Brexit lead of three points.

That two phone polls are showing advances for Leave are particularly significant, as telephone polling has tended to show lower figures for Brexit. There is a lively debate over which method, phone or online, is likely to be more effective at predicting the referendum, although no-one knows for certain at the present time.

In any case, whether on the telephone or the Internet, the latest polls have pro-Europeans worried, and Brexiteers jubilant. Who’s right?

There are reasons to start trusting the polls, at least as far as voter ID is concerned

So far, the performances of the political parties in local elections and by-elections has been about par with what we’d expect from the polls. So the chances are good that the measures taken post-2015 election are working.

Bank holidays are always difficult

I would be deeply cautious of reading too much into three polls, all of which have been conducted over the bank holiday weekend, a time when people go out, play with their kids, get wasted or go away for a long weekend. The last set of bank holiday polls gave Ed Miliband’s Labour party  large leads, well outside the average, which tended to show the two parties neck-and-neck.

Although this time they might be more revealing than we expect

One reason why the polls got it wrong in 2015 is they talked to the wrong type of people. The demographic samples were right but they were not properly representative. (Look at it like this – if my poll includes 18 actors who are now earning millions in cinema, I may have a representative figure in terms of the total number of Britain’s millionaires – but their politics are likely to be far to the left of the average British one percenter, unless the actor in question is Tom Conti.)

Across telephone and online, the pollsters talked to people who were too politically-motivated, skewing the result: Ed Miliband’s Labour party did very well among young people for whom Thursday night was a time to watch Question Time and This Week, but less well among young people for whom Thursday is the new Friday.  The polls had too many party members and not enough party animals.

But the question no-one can answer is this: it may be that differential turnout in the European referendum means that a sample of hyper-politicos is actually a better sample than an ordinary poll. Just as the polls erred in 2015 by sampling too many political people, they may be calling the referendum wrong in having too many apolitical people.

These three polls aren’t the scariest for Remain released today

IpsosMori released a poll today, taken 15 days ago and so free from any bank holiday effect, without a referendum voting intention question, but one taking the temperature on which issues the British public believe are the most important of the day.

Far from growing more invested in the question of Britain’s European Union membership as the campaign enters its terminal phase, concern about the European Union has flatlined at 28 per cent – within the margin of error of last month’s IpsosMori survey, which put Britain at 30 per cent. The proportion who believe that it is the biggest single issue facing Britain today also remains static at 16 per cent. Evidence of the high turnout necessary to avert Brexit seems thin on the ground.

Pro-Europeans should be further worried by the identity of the groups that are concerned about the European Union. Conservative voters, the over-65s and people from social grades A (higher managerial, administrative and professional workers) and B (intermediate managerial, administrative and professional workers), are more concerned about the European Union than the national average. The only one of those three groups that is more likely to favour Remain over Leave are ABers, while Conservative voters and the over-65s are likely to vote for Brexit over the status quo.

Among the demographics who are least concerned about the European Union, the only pro-Brexit group that is significantly less concerned about EU membership than the national average are people from social grades D (semi-skilled and unskilled manual workers) to E (state pensioners, casual workers and jobseekers). The other groups that are least concerned with the European Union are people who live in urban areas and people aged from 18 to 24, the two most pro-European demographics.

The prospects of a Brexit vote are rather better than the betting odds would suggest. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. He usually writes about politics.