Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from this morning's papers.

1. Obama's second inaugural address: don't believe the conciliatory language (Guardian)

Inaugural speeches are always mushy, but make no mistake: the economy, gun control and immigration are going to be divisive, writes Michael Cohen.

2. British politics urgently needs a new force - a movement on the left to counter capitalism's crisis (Independent)

If a new, networked movement of the left could agree on some key principles, and avoid creating another battleground for ultra-left sects, it could give a voice to millions, writes Owen Jones.

3. What ties David Cameron's EU policy to his stirring words on Algeria? Impatience (Guardian)

Pick a fight in Brussels, send in a taskforce, shake it all up – on foreign policy Cameron's like a bull in a china shop, says Gaby Hinsliff.

4. We need the world’s policeman back on duty (Times) (£)

Devastation in Syria, Islamist terror in North Africa — there is a bloody cost to when the US fails to intervene, says Tim Montgomerie.

5. Why is David Cameron so in thrall to this blunderer? (Daily Mail)

MPs' criticism that Jeremy Heywood was not rigorous enough over the Anderew Mitchell affair is all too familiar, writes Andrew Pierce.

6. Given the state of Britain's economy, Capable (Mark) Carney needs to work miracles (Independent)

There are huge expectations of the new Bank of England Governor, and he won't be able to live up to them. But he could start by learning from the Federal Reserve, says David Blanchflower.

7. The union at Europe’s heart is frayed (Financial Times)

François Heisbourg says he is deeply struck by the loss of Franco-German intimacy.

8. Mokhtar Belmokhtar: the world’s most wanted (Daily Telegraph)

The Algerian crisis has turned Belmokhtar from a minor warlord into the West’s number one target, says Richard Spencer.

9. Obama must atone for his carbon omissions (Financial Times)

His promise of energy security no substitute for action on global warming, writes Edward Luce.

10. It’s snowing, and it really feels like the start of a mini ice age (Daily Telegraph)

Something appears to be up with our winter weather, and to call it "warming" is obviously to strain the language, writes Boris Johnson.

Jeremy Corbyn, Labour leader. Getty
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Will Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn become Prime Minister after the 2017 general election?

Can Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn win the 2017 general election? 

Jeremy Corbyn could be the next prime minister. Admittedly, it’s highly unlikely. After less than two years as Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn is leading the party into a snap general election. Labour behind in the latest general election polls and underperformed badly in the recent local elections. But since the election was called, Labour’s position in the polls has been improving. Can we trust the general election polls?

This isn’t the first vote of national significance since his election, however, since he was in office during the 2016 EU referendum. It’s also not Corbyn’s first serious challenge: after the Brexit vote, his MPs voted “no confidence” in him and Owen Smith challenged him for the leadership. Corbyn saw off that threat to his position convincingly, so can he pull out another electoral triumph and become prime minister? 

Can Jeremy Corbyn become prime minister after the general election 2017?

Do the polls predict a Labour victory?

Since May 2015, the Conservative Party has consistently led in the polls. The latest polls give Labour ratings in the mid 30s, while the Conservatives are on the mid-40s. Recent improvements in Labour’s standing still leave Jeremy Corbyn a long way from becoming prime minister.

But should we believe the general election polls? Glen O’Hara, professor of modern and contemporary history at Oxford Brookes University, points out that the polls have been wrong before, and could be overstating Labour’s collapse. However, a 20-point gap is far outside the margin of error. A Corbyn win would be an unprecedented upset.

What is Labour's record on elections?

At the 2016 local elections, Labour did not gain any councils and lost 18 seats and 4 per cent of the vote. James Schneider, the co-founder of Momentum who is now Corbyn’s head of strategic communications, said this showed Labour was on the right trajectory, but it’s a disappointment for an opposition to make no gains. And at the Copeland by-election this February, Labour lost the seat to the Tories – the first government gain in a by-election since 1982.

Can Jeremy Corbyn become prime minister? The verdict

Jeremy Corbyn’s path to power would be one of the greatest surprises in British politics. But unlikely doesn’t mean impossible. It would take some extraordinary events, but it could happen. Check out the latest odds to see how the markets rate his chances.

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