Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from this morning's papers.

1. Cameron's 'historic' speech proves he's the latest leader to lose control of his party over Europe (Independent)

The Prime Minister's chaotic approach will leave him even more at the mercy of events and his party’s willful insurrectionaries, writes Steve Richards.

2. Blair has failed in the Middle East and should quit (Daily Telegraph)

It’s easy to see what the former Labour prime minister gets out of his role as Middle East envoy, but harder to see what he gives back, says Peter Oborne.

3. Banks and bonuses: gaming the public (Guardian)

George Osborne suggested he could withhold government work from miscreant banks - now it is time for action, says a Guardian editorial.

4. Even if everything’s free, there can be a price (Times) (£)

The death of hacker Aaron Swartz reveals a young generation unaware of its own great power – or responsibilities, writes David Aaronovitch.

5. Are ministers too scared to say what they know about the next wave of migrants? (Daily Mail)

In refusing to disclose the number of migrants expected to arrive from Romania and Bulgaria, the government is treating us like children, says Stephen Glover.

6. Hong Kong sees the light through a haze (Financial Times)

The city is finally addressing its pollution problem but is not going far enough, says David Pilling.

7. Referring Syria to the international criminal court is a justified gamble (Guardian)

An international criminal court investigation may split the United Nations – but it would change the civil war's political dynamics, writes Philippe Sands.

8. Battle lines drawn in Whitehall’s phoney war (Daily Telegraph)

There’s always tension between ministers and mandarins, but strong leaders see it through, says Sue Cameron.

9. The west must plan for an arc of uncertainty (Independent)

The collapse of the state in a nuclear Pakistan is a prospect that must be addressed, says an Independent editorial.

10. Ending the culture of US gun violence (Financial Times)

Obama must try to break the NRA’s grip on national politics, says an FT editorial.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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