Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from this morning's papers.

1. Immigration line weakens Cameron story (Financial Times)

The UK government’s policy is economic and political folly, says Janan Ganesh.

2. In or out? It’s a question for Europhiles too (Daily Telegraph)

A referendum would give pro-Europeans the chance to win the case for democratic reform, writes Will Straw.

3. Labour's 2015 fears are puny compared to the Tories' terror (Guardian)

On the economy, Europe, tax and the NHS, the trajectory is all in favour of Ed Miliband, says Polly Toynbee. Now his party can start to dare.

4. Netanyahu: tactical genius, strategic idiot (Financial Times)

The Israeli prime minister may be returned to office in triumph next week, writes Gideon Rachman. But he risks leading Israel to disaster.

5. No one wants to be mistaken for the pub bore (Times) (£)

A tough line on Europe and shirkers may be popular, but the Prime Minister has to play the measured statesman, writes Rachel Sylvester.

6. Nothing to fear from a new deal with EU (Financial Times)

The UK should change the relationship and realign its trade relations, says Douglas Carswell.

7. Mali's Islamists are too dangerous to be ignored (Independent)

For all the difficulties of intervention in Mali, the alternatives are worse, argues an Independent editorial.

8. To understand the deepening mess we are in now, it's worth looking to the words of a Polish economist in 1944 (Guardian)

This assault on an entire social contract is what Michał Kalecki warned about, writes Aditya Chakrabortty.

9. Let’s see the top civil servants on television (Independent)

Jeremy Heywood is now with his third successive PM, writes Steve Richards. He and other officials should be held to account.

10. Benjamin Disraeli can help Cameron to a clear win in 2015 (Daily Telegraph)

It is the 'aspirers’ who deliver Tory majorities – so the PM must put himself on their side, says

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Who will win in Manchester Gorton?

Will Labour lose in Manchester Gorton?

The death of Gerald Kaufman will trigger a by-election in his Manchester Gorton seat, which has been Labour-held since 1935.

Coming so soon after the disappointing results in Copeland – where the seat was lost to the Tories – and Stoke – where the party lost vote share – some overly excitable commentators are talking up the possibility of an upset in the Manchester seat.

But Gorton is very different to Stoke-on-Trent and to Copeland. The Labour lead is 56 points, compared to 16.5 points in Stoke-on-Trent and 6.5 points in Copeland. (As I’ve written before and will doubtless write again, it’s much more instructive to talk about vote share rather than vote numbers in British elections. Most of the country tends to vote in the same way even if they vote at different volumes.)

That 47 per cent of the seat's residents come from a non-white background and that the Labour party holds every council seat in the constituency only adds to the party's strong position here. 

But that doesn’t mean that there is no interest to be had in the contest at all. That the seat voted heavily to remain in the European Union – around 65 per cent according to Chris Hanretty’s estimates – will provide a glimmer of hope to the Liberal Democrats that they can finish a strong second, as they did consistently from 1992 to 2010, before slumping to fifth in 2015.

How they do in second place will inform how jittery Labour MPs with smaller majorities and a history of Liberal Democrat activity are about Labour’s embrace of Brexit.

They also have a narrow chance of becoming competitive should Labour’s selection turn acrimonious. The seat has been in special measures since 2004, which means the selection will be run by the party’s national executive committee, though several local candidates are tipped to run, with Afzal Khan,  a local MEP, and Julie Reid, a local councillor, both expected to run for the vacant seats.

It’s highly unlikely but if the selection occurs in a way that irritates the local party or provokes serious local in-fighting, you can just about see how the Liberal Democrats give everyone a surprise. But it’s about as likely as the United States men landing on Mars any time soon – plausible, but far-fetched. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.