Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from this morning's papers.

1. Britain's new working-class pride could be a bonus for Labour (Guardian)

That 60 per cent of Britons claim to be proletarian reflects a fear that the Tories have broken a promise on rewarding hard work, writes Gaby Hinsliff.

2. It does not really matter if Britain leaves (Financial Times)

The idea of the UK at the heart of the EU is bizarre, writes Wolfgang Münchau.

3. Obama's new team shows the Iraq lessons are forgotten (Guardian)

His key appointments contributed to the worst foreign blunder in at least a decade, says Gary Younge. Can we trust them in another war?

4. The war in Libya was seen as a success, now here we are engaging with the blowback in Mali (Independent)

Our government and media may often ignore the price of Western interventions, but in future conflicts and fuel for radical Islamist groups, it is still paid nonetheless, writes Owen Jones.

5. Tories, wear your hearts on your sleeves (Times) (£)

On social justice and poverty, the best ideas come from Conservatives, says Tim Montgomerie. The party needs to spell out its moral vision.

6. A straightforward pension scheme for all (Daily Telegraph)

The system we launch today will give workers the help they need in planning for retirement, writes Steve Webb.

7. We need a bloodbath to tame these arrogant officials (Daily Mail)

It requires a determined minister to make the civil service once more the servants of democracy, rather than its wreckers, says Simon Heffer.

8. Ignore ghosts of Eurolovers Dave...be tough with Brussels (Sun)

The greatest threat to an acceptable British outcome is half-hearted and indecisive leadership, says Trevor Kavanagh.

9. It’s transport that will carry us down the road to recovery (Daily Telegraph)

Upgrading the rail system is crucial if we are to be economically competitive again, writes Boris Johnson.

10. The battle against cybercrime is too important to be undone by Eurosceptics (Guardian)

If they come under attack from hackers, Eurosceptics will come to regret their opposition to Europol's Cybercrime Centre, says Misha Glenny.

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Forget gaining £350m a week, Brexit would cost the UK £300m a week

Figures from the government's own Office for Budget Responsibility reveal the negative economic impact Brexit would have. 

Even now, there are some who persist in claiming that Boris Johnson's use of the £350m a week figure was accurate. The UK's gross, as opposed to net EU contribution, is precisely this large, they say. Yet this ignores that Britain's annual rebate (which reduced its overall 2016 contribution to £252m a week) is not "returned" by Brussels but, rather, never leaves Britain to begin with. 

Then there is the £4.1bn that the government received from the EU in public funding, and the £1.5bn allocated directly to British organisations. Fine, the Leavers say, the latter could be better managed by the UK after Brexit (with more for the NHS and less for agriculture).

But this entire discussion ignores that EU withdrawal is set to leave the UK with less, rather than more, to spend. As Carl Emmerson, the deputy director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, notes in a letter in today's Times: "The bigger picture is that the forecast health of the public finances was downgraded by £15bn per year - or almost £300m per week - as a direct result of the Brexit vote. Not only will we not regain control of £350m weekly as a result of Brexit, we are likely to make a net fiscal loss from it. Those are the numbers and forecasts which the government has adopted. It is perhaps surprising that members of the government are suggesting rather different figures."

The Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts, to which Emmerson refers, are shown below (the £15bn figure appearing in the 2020/21 column).

Some on the right contend that a blitz of tax cuts and deregulation following Brexit would unleash  higher growth. But aside from the deleterious economic and social consequences that could result, there is, as I noted yesterday, no majority in parliament or in the country for this course. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.