Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from this morning's papers.

1. The perilous drift to intervention in Syria (Financial Times)

The most telling argument against action remains that the consequences are incalculable, writes Gideon Rachman.

2. Perhaps Osborne is a fine political tactician. But is his economic medicine working? (Independent)

The Chancellor is often the main victim of his wily initiatives, writes Steve Richards.

3. Making hard calls on major issues – the Tory strategy for re-election (Daily Telegraph)

This week’s Autumn Statement should mark a return to realistic, solid government, says Benedict Brogan.

4. Morsi has left Egypt on the brink (Financial Times)

The country is divided between Islamists and the rest and risks civil war, writes Mohamed ElBaradei.

5. Israel must take heed of its friends (Daily Telegraph)

William Hague was right to differ from Israel’s government over the expansion of settlements, says a Telegraph leader.

6. Tories at half-time: cruel and inept, with worse to come (Guardian)

The autumn statement falls on an inauspicious day – Cameron's halfway mark – and is likely to unleash yet more chaos, says Polly Toynbee.

7. We’ll only win this war if banks lend (Daily Mail)

The banks are failing to help Britain recover from the disaster they created, says a Daily Mail editorial.

8. In the battle of the budget, who’s fair wins (Times) (£)

The Chancellor’s challenge is as much about values as maths, says Rachel Sylvester. He can’t afford to misjudge again how voters feel.

9. This is Europe's big chance to help the two-state solution become reality (Guardian)

The EU and its consumers can put pressure on Israel to end expansion of its illegal settlements, say Mary Robinson and Martti Ahtisaari.

10. There’s more trust in business giants than the MPs who call them immoral (Independent)

We should be wary of legislators when they talk morality, writes Dominic Lawson.

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Can Philip Hammond save the Conservatives from public anger at their DUP deal?

The Chancellor has the wriggle room to get close to the DUP's spending increase – but emotion matters more than facts in politics.

The magic money tree exists, and it is growing in Northern Ireland. That’s the attack line that Labour will throw at Theresa May in the wake of her £1bn deal with the DUP to keep her party in office.

It’s worth noting that while £1bn is a big deal in terms of Northern Ireland’s budget – just a touch under £10bn in 2016/17 – as far as the total expenditure of the British government goes, it’s peanuts.

The British government spent £778bn last year – we’re talking about spending an amount of money in Northern Ireland over the course of two years that the NHS loses in pen theft over the course of one in England. To match the increase in relative terms, you’d be looking at a £35bn increase in spending.

But, of course, political arguments are about gut instinct rather than actual numbers. The perception that the streets of Antrim are being paved by gold while the public realm in England, Scotland and Wales falls into disrepair is a real danger to the Conservatives.

But the good news for them is that last year Philip Hammond tweaked his targets to give himself greater headroom in case of a Brexit shock. Now the Tories have experienced a shock of a different kind – a Corbyn shock. That shock was partly due to the Labour leader’s good campaign and May’s bad campaign, but it was also powered by anger at cuts to schools and anger among NHS workers at Jeremy Hunt’s stewardship of the NHS. Conservative MPs have already made it clear to May that the party must not go to the country again while defending cuts to school spending.

Hammond can get to slightly under that £35bn and still stick to his targets. That will mean that the DUP still get to rave about their higher-than-average increase, while avoiding another election in which cuts to schools are front-and-centre. But whether that deprives Labour of their “cuts for you, but not for them” attack line is another question entirely. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to domestic and global politics.

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