Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from this morning's papers.

1. The perilous drift to intervention in Syria (Financial Times)

The most telling argument against action remains that the consequences are incalculable, writes Gideon Rachman.

2. Perhaps Osborne is a fine political tactician. But is his economic medicine working? (Independent)

The Chancellor is often the main victim of his wily initiatives, writes Steve Richards.

3. Making hard calls on major issues – the Tory strategy for re-election (Daily Telegraph)

This week’s Autumn Statement should mark a return to realistic, solid government, says Benedict Brogan.

4. Morsi has left Egypt on the brink (Financial Times)

The country is divided between Islamists and the rest and risks civil war, writes Mohamed ElBaradei.

5. Israel must take heed of its friends (Daily Telegraph)

William Hague was right to differ from Israel’s government over the expansion of settlements, says a Telegraph leader.

6. Tories at half-time: cruel and inept, with worse to come (Guardian)

The autumn statement falls on an inauspicious day – Cameron's halfway mark – and is likely to unleash yet more chaos, says Polly Toynbee.

7. We’ll only win this war if banks lend (Daily Mail)

The banks are failing to help Britain recover from the disaster they created, says a Daily Mail editorial.

8. In the battle of the budget, who’s fair wins (Times) (£)

The Chancellor’s challenge is as much about values as maths, says Rachel Sylvester. He can’t afford to misjudge again how voters feel.

9. This is Europe's big chance to help the two-state solution become reality (Guardian)

The EU and its consumers can put pressure on Israel to end expansion of its illegal settlements, say Mary Robinson and Martti Ahtisaari.

10. There’s more trust in business giants than the MPs who call them immoral (Independent)

We should be wary of legislators when they talk morality, writes Dominic Lawson.

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Why Theresa May can't end speculation of an early general election

Both Conservative and Labour MPs regard a contest next year as the solution to their problems. 

One of Theresa May’s first acts as a Conservative leadership candidate was to rule out an early general election. After a tumultuous 2015 contest and the EU referendum, her view was that the country required a period of stability (a view shared by voters). Many newly-elected Tory MPs, fearful of a Brexit-inspired Ukip or Liberal Democrat surge, supported her on this condition.

After entering Downing Street, May reaffirmed her stance. “The Prime Minister could not have been clearer,” a senior source told me. “There won’t be an early election.” Maintaining this pledge is an important part of May’s straight-talking image.

But though No.10 has wisely avoided publicly contemplating an election (unlike Gordon Brown), the question refuses to die. The Conservatives have a majority of just 12 - the smallest of any single-party government since 1974 - and, as David Cameron found, legislative defeats almost inevitably follow. May’s vow to lift the ban on new grammar schools looks to many like an unachievable task. Former education secretary Nicky Morgan and former business minister Anna Soubry are among the Tories leading the charge against the measure (which did not feature in the 2015 Conservative manifesto).  

To this problem, an early election appears to be the solution. The Tories retain a substantial opinion poll lead over Labour, the most divided opposition in recent history. An election victory would give May the mandate for new policies that she presently lacks.

“I don’t believe Theresa May wishes to hold an early election which there is evidence that the country doesn’t want and which, given the current state of the Labour Party, might be seen as opportunistic,” Nigel Lawson told today’s Times“If, however, the government were to find that it couldn’t get its legislation through the House of Commons, then a wholly new situation would arise.”

It is not only Conservatives who are keeping the possibility of an early election alive. Many Labour MPs are pleading for one in the belief that it would end Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership. An early contest would also pre-empt the boundary changes planned in 2018, which are forecast to cost the party 23 seats.

For Corbyn, the possibility of an election is a vital means of disciplining MPs. Allies also hope that the failed revolt against his leadership, which Labour members blame for the party’s unpopularity, would allow him to remain leader even if defeated.

Unlike her predecessors, May faces the obstacle of the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act (under which the next election will be on 7 May 2020). Yet it is not an insurmountable one. The legislation can be suspended with the backing of two-thirds of MPs, or through a vote of no confidence in the government. Alternatively, the act could simply be repealed or amended. Labour and the Liberal Democrats, who have demanded an early election, would struggle to resist May if she called their bluff.

To many, it simply looks like an offer too good to refuse. Which is why, however hard May swats this fly, it will keep coming back. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.