Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from this morning's papers.

1. We don't need secret courts to protect our US relations (Guardian)

The claim that America's intelligence agencies won't share material if our justice remains open is bogus, says David Davis.

2. Britain suffers delusions of weakness not grandeur (Financial Times)

Nowhere is the UK’s imagined irrelevance less true than in the European Union, writes Janan Ganesh.

3. The fight for the centre ground between Clegg and Cameron makes the coalition fragile (Independent)

The Deputy Prime Minister has created tensions that may be his undoing, writes Steve Richards.

4. Today’s challenges go beyond Keynes (Financial Times)

A different kind of growth path is required, says Jeffrey Sachs.

5. In the US, mass child killings are tragedies. In Pakistan, mere bug splats (Guardian)

Barack Obama's tears for the children of Newtown are in stark contrast to his silence over the children murdered by his drones, says George Monbiot.

 

6. Let us concentrate on real human rights (Daily Telegraph)

The European Court has drifted too far from its principles – and we want to put that right, says Chris Grayling.

 

7. The Leveson report is a charter for control freaks in policing (Guardian)

Lord Justice Leveson's proposals would silence whistleblowers and make the police even more secretive and less accountable, argues Vikram Dodd.

8. Can our leaders find their inner Hercules? (Times) (£)

Obama already embodies a narrative, but Cameron, Miliband and Clegg must find one to explain their actions, writes Rachel Sylvester.

9. Shadow of fear over public's right to know (Daily Mail)

The message sent out by the arrest of a police officer is that the public ought to have been kept in ignorance of Andrew Mitchell’s tirade, says a Daily Mail editorial.

10. A not-so-new dawn in Japan (Independent)

The patriotism that Abe is keen to nurture can easily develop into a dangerous nationalism, says an Independent leader.

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Who will win in Manchester Gorton?

Will Labour lose in Manchester Gorton?

The death of Gerald Kaufman will trigger a by-election in his Manchester Gorton seat, which has been Labour-held since 1935.

Coming so soon after the disappointing results in Copeland – where the seat was lost to the Tories – and Stoke – where the party lost vote share – some overly excitable commentators are talking up the possibility of an upset in the Manchester seat.

But Gorton is very different to Stoke-on-Trent and to Copeland. The Labour lead is 56 points, compared to 16.5 points in Stoke-on-Trent and 6.5 points in Copeland. (As I’ve written before and will doubtless write again, it’s much more instructive to talk about vote share rather than vote numbers in British elections. Most of the country tends to vote in the same way even if they vote at different volumes.)

That 47 per cent of the seat's residents come from a non-white background and that the Labour party holds every council seat in the constituency only adds to the party's strong position here. 

But that doesn’t mean that there is no interest to be had in the contest at all. That the seat voted heavily to remain in the European Union – around 65 per cent according to Chris Hanretty’s estimates – will provide a glimmer of hope to the Liberal Democrats that they can finish a strong second, as they did consistently from 1992 to 2010, before slumping to fifth in 2015.

How they do in second place will inform how jittery Labour MPs with smaller majorities and a history of Liberal Democrat activity are about Labour’s embrace of Brexit.

They also have a narrow chance of becoming competitive should Labour’s selection turn acrimonious. The seat has been in special measures since 2004, which means the selection will be run by the party’s national executive committee, though several local candidates are tipped to run, with Afzal Khan,  a local MEP, and Julie Reid, a local councillor, both expected to run for the vacant seats.

It’s highly unlikely but if the selection occurs in a way that irritates the local party or provokes serious local in-fighting, you can just about see how the Liberal Democrats give everyone a surprise. But it’s about as likely as the United States men landing on Mars any time soon – plausible, but far-fetched. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.