Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from this morning's papers.

1. Could Cameron be a bit frit about facing Miliband in TV debates? (Observer)

David Cameron's cold feet about televised leaders' debates suggest a new respect for his Labour opposite number, writes Andrew Rawnsley.

2. America: Too many guns, too little will to change (Independent on Sunday)

Newtown, Connecticut, joins a rollcall of towns whose names become synonymous with violent death, writes Rupert Cornwell. The President has a fight on his hands.

3. American fantasies that lead to massacre (Sunday Times) (£)

The ideal of guns as self-protection owes little to evidence and much to cultural fears, writes David Frum.

4. Where does Danny Boyle’s Britain go from here? (Sunday Telegraph)

We inhabit a pluralistic society – and identifying the common ground is the most pressing challenge for the 21st-century politician, says Matthew d'Ancona.

5. The coalition's in good cheer - so the hangover will be terrible (Mail on Sunday)

The subject on which Cameron and Clegg most disagree - Europe - cannot be avoided much longer, says James Forsyth.

6. Secular Britain is ruled by religious bureaucrats (Observer)

Why is the church still such a force in our society when most of us disregard its clerics' teachings, asks Nick Cohen.

7. Is Scotland in Europe? The SNP doesn’t even know (Sunday Telegraph)

The Scottish Nationalist Party is offering us a one-way ticket to a deeply uncertain future, says Alistair Darling.

8. Clegg has a mind-altering plan for power (Independent on Sunday)

The Liberal Democrat leader has to look for what he might call niche demographics – on an industrial scale, writes John Rentoul.

9. What a week that was for idiotic politics (Sunday Telegraph)

The commitment to gay marriage is seen as some sort of analogue with the Blairite renunciation of Labour’s Clause Four, writes Janet Daley.

10. Never has London seemed more like a city state apart (Observer)

The census suggests a huge gap between the lives and concerns of Londoners and their fellow Britons, says Catherine Bennett.

Jeremy Corbyn, Labour leader. Getty
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Will Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn become Prime Minister after the 2017 general election?

Can Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn win the 2017 general election? 

Jeremy Corbyn could be the next prime minister. Admittedly, it’s highly unlikely. After less than two years as Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn is leading the party into a snap general election. Labour behind in the latest general election polls and underperformed badly in the recent local elections. But since the election was called, Labour’s position in the polls has been improving. Can we trust the general election polls?

This isn’t the first vote of national significance since his election, however, since he was in office during the 2016 EU referendum. It’s also not Corbyn’s first serious challenge: after the Brexit vote, his MPs voted “no confidence” in him and Owen Smith challenged him for the leadership. Corbyn saw off that threat to his position convincingly, so can he pull out another electoral triumph and become prime minister? 

Can Jeremy Corbyn become prime minister after the general election 2017?

Do the polls predict a Labour victory?

Since May 2015, the Conservative Party has consistently led in the polls. The latest polls give Labour ratings in the mid 30s, while the Conservatives are on the mid-40s. Recent improvements in Labour’s standing still leave Jeremy Corbyn a long way from becoming prime minister.

But should we believe the general election polls? Glen O’Hara, professor of modern and contemporary history at Oxford Brookes University, points out that the polls have been wrong before, and could be overstating Labour’s collapse. However, a 20-point gap is far outside the margin of error. A Corbyn win would be an unprecedented upset.

What is Labour's record on elections?

At the 2016 local elections, Labour did not gain any councils and lost 18 seats and 4 per cent of the vote. James Schneider, the co-founder of Momentum who is now Corbyn’s head of strategic communications, said this showed Labour was on the right trajectory, but it’s a disappointment for an opposition to make no gains. And at the Copeland by-election this February, Labour lost the seat to the Tories – the first government gain in a by-election since 1982.

Can Jeremy Corbyn become prime minister? The verdict

Jeremy Corbyn’s path to power would be one of the greatest surprises in British politics. But unlikely doesn’t mean impossible. It would take some extraordinary events, but it could happen. Check out the latest odds to see how the markets rate his chances.

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