Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from this morning's papers.

1. Housing crisis is the scandal of our age (Daily Telegraph)

Rents must be brought down and investment shifted from welfare into building the homes that Britain needs so desperately, says Mary Riddell.

2. Out of Europe, Britain faces a weak future (Financial Times)

If the prime minister is to call a referendum, the only real choice is between being fully in or out altogether, says Jonathan Powell.

3. A betrayal of principle on same-sex marriage (Independent)

Cameron talked big; what he delivered is a cobbling together of compromise and cowardice of which he should be ashamed, says an Independent leader.

4. Culture wars are an unwelcome American import (Daily Telegraph)

By supporting gay marriage, David Cameron risks sowing division where none previously existed, argues a Telegraph editorial.

5. This lily-livered marriage bill must make room for all of us (Guardian)

Gay people are still being denied marriage, while straight people are deserting it in droves, writes Gaby Hinsliff. The institution itself is a mess.

6. Who should we back in this Sunni-Shia war? (Times) (£)

Syria is not a struggle between tyranny and freedom but a fight for dominance between two visions of Islam, writes Paddy Ashdown. 

7. Japan should scare the eurozone (Financial Times)

Japan’s two consecutive lost decades are precisely what Europe should not want to emulate, writes Sebastian Mallaby.

8. Northern Ireland is not at a crossroads it's stuck on a roundabout (Guardian)

The recurring violence of a minority in Northern Ireland reflects a wider lack of faith in its politics, says Peter Shirlow.

9. The rioters shouldn’t worry – Ulster is safe (Daily Telegraph)

As the census shows, a united Ireland has become an outdated nationalist fantasy, argues Ruth Dudley Edwards.

 

 

10. Sorry Mr Cameron, Television debates are not optional (Independent)

The PM's bid to weedle out of pre-election live debates in 2015 makes a handsome Christmas gift to Ed Miliband, says Matthew Norman.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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