Morning Call: pick of the papers

Ten must-read pieces from this mornings papers.

1. Leveson report: This could spark a new Lib-Lab alliance (Sunday Telegraph)

Matthew D'Ancona sees a new strategic landscape emerging in different party leaders' responses to the idea legislation for press regulation.

2. Cameron discovers a principle as he fights for a free press (Independent on Sunday)

It was a mistake to launch an inquiry in the first place, says John Rentoul, but at least the Prime Minister looks like he believes in something now.

3. George revs up for a fuel duty freeze (Mail on Sunday)

James Forsyth is well briefed ahead of the Chancellor's Autumn Statement next week.

4. With politicians in deadlock, the ball bounces back to the press (Observer)

Andrew Rawnsley probes coalition divisions over Leveson and notes that the public are not minded to cut journalists much slack.

5. Only a free press is democratic (Independent on Sunday)

Leading article rejects state regulation, offers to get last round in last chance saloon.

6. The press must respond in a robust and reasoned manner (Observer)

Leading article takes issue with some of the detail of the Leveson report, recognises the thrust but stops short of accepting the need for legislation. 

7. America's carbon tax offers a lesson to the rest of the planet (Observer)

Henry Porter notes encouraging signs that even conservatives in the US are waking up to the threat of climate change.

8. Ukip may yet gatecrash this private party (Sunday Telegraph)

Nigel Farage's party will storm the cosy corridors of power, says Janet Daley, who, readers might recall, confidently predicted Mitt Romney would win the US election in similar terms.

9. Here endeth the PM's second lesson (Sunday Times)

Martin Ivens cannot resist joining the chorus of columnists celebrating Cameron's decision to oppose statutory press regulation.

10. We have travelled back to 1942. 70 years ago we had soup kitchens, now we have food banks. (Sunday Mirror)

Tristram Hunt marks the 70th anniversary of the Beveridge report.

  

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Who will win the Copeland by-election?

Labour face a tricky task in holding onto the seat. 

What’s the Copeland by-election about? That’s the question that will decide who wins it.

The Conservatives want it to be about the nuclear industry, which is the seat’s biggest employer, and Jeremy Corbyn’s long history of opposition to nuclear power.

Labour want it to be about the difficulties of the NHS in Cumbria in general and the future of West Cumberland Hospital in particular.

Who’s winning? Neither party is confident of victory but both sides think it will be close. That Theresa May has visited is a sign of the confidence in Conservative headquarters that, win or lose, Labour will not increase its majority from the six-point lead it held over the Conservatives in May 2015. (It’s always more instructive to talk about vote share rather than raw numbers, in by-elections in particular.)

But her visit may have been counterproductive. Yes, she is the most popular politician in Britain according to all the polls, but in visiting she has added fuel to the fire of Labour’s message that the Conservatives are keeping an anxious eye on the outcome.

Labour strategists feared that “the oxygen” would come out of the campaign if May used her visit to offer a guarantee about West Cumberland Hospital. Instead, she refused to answer, merely hyping up the issue further.

The party is nervous that opposition to Corbyn is going to supress turnout among their voters, but on the Conservative side, there is considerable irritation that May’s visit has made their task harder, too.

Voters know the difference between a by-election and a general election and my hunch is that people will get they can have a free hit on the health question without risking the future of the nuclear factory. That Corbyn has U-Turned on nuclear power only helps.

I said last week that if I knew what the local paper would look like between now and then I would be able to call the outcome. Today the West Cumbria News & Star leads with Downing Street’s refusal to answer questions about West Cumberland Hospital. All the signs favour Labour. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.