Morning Call: pick of the papers

Ten must-read pieces from this mornings papers.

1. Leveson report: This could spark a new Lib-Lab alliance (Sunday Telegraph)

Matthew D'Ancona sees a new strategic landscape emerging in different party leaders' responses to the idea legislation for press regulation.

2. Cameron discovers a principle as he fights for a free press (Independent on Sunday)

It was a mistake to launch an inquiry in the first place, says John Rentoul, but at least the Prime Minister looks like he believes in something now.

3. George revs up for a fuel duty freeze (Mail on Sunday)

James Forsyth is well briefed ahead of the Chancellor's Autumn Statement next week.

4. With politicians in deadlock, the ball bounces back to the press (Observer)

Andrew Rawnsley probes coalition divisions over Leveson and notes that the public are not minded to cut journalists much slack.

5. Only a free press is democratic (Independent on Sunday)

Leading article rejects state regulation, offers to get last round in last chance saloon.

6. The press must respond in a robust and reasoned manner (Observer)

Leading article takes issue with some of the detail of the Leveson report, recognises the thrust but stops short of accepting the need for legislation. 

7. America's carbon tax offers a lesson to the rest of the planet (Observer)

Henry Porter notes encouraging signs that even conservatives in the US are waking up to the threat of climate change.

8. Ukip may yet gatecrash this private party (Sunday Telegraph)

Nigel Farage's party will storm the cosy corridors of power, says Janet Daley, who, readers might recall, confidently predicted Mitt Romney would win the US election in similar terms.

9. Here endeth the PM's second lesson (Sunday Times)

Martin Ivens cannot resist joining the chorus of columnists celebrating Cameron's decision to oppose statutory press regulation.

10. We have travelled back to 1942. 70 years ago we had soup kitchens, now we have food banks. (Sunday Mirror)

Tristram Hunt marks the 70th anniversary of the Beveridge report.

  

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Leader: The unresolved Eurozone crisis

The continent that once aspired to be a rival superpower to the US is now a byword for decline, and ethnic nationalism and right-wing populism are thriving.

The eurozone crisis was never resolved. It was merely conveniently forgotten. The vote for Brexit, the terrible war in Syria and Donald Trump’s election as US president all distracted from the single currency’s woes. Yet its contradictions endure, a permanent threat to continental European stability and the future cohesion of the European Union.

The resignation of the Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi, following defeat in a constitutional referendum on 4 December, was the moment at which some believed that Europe would be overwhelmed. Among the champions of the No campaign were the anti-euro Five Star Movement (which has led in some recent opinion polls) and the separatist Lega Nord. Opponents of the EU, such as Nigel Farage, hailed the result as a rejection of the single currency.

An Italian exit, if not unthinkable, is far from inevitable, however. The No campaign comprised not only Eurosceptics but pro-Europeans such as the former prime minister Mario Monti and members of Mr Renzi’s liberal-centrist Democratic Party. Few voters treated the referendum as a judgement on the monetary union.

To achieve withdrawal from the euro, the populist Five Star Movement would need first to form a government (no easy task under Italy’s complex multiparty system), then amend the constitution to allow a public vote on Italy’s membership of the currency. Opinion polls continue to show a majority opposed to the return of the lira.

But Europe faces far more immediate dangers. Italy’s fragile banking system has been imperilled by the referendum result and the accompanying fall in investor confidence. In the absence of state aid, the Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, the world’s oldest bank, could soon face ruin. Italy’s national debt stands at 132 per cent of GDP, severely limiting its firepower, and its financial sector has amassed $360bn of bad loans. The risk is of a new financial crisis that spreads across the eurozone.

EU leaders’ record to date does not encourage optimism. Seven years after the Greek crisis began, the German government is continuing to advocate the failed path of austerity. On 4 December, Germany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, declared that Greece must choose between unpopular “structural reforms” (a euphemism for austerity) or withdrawal from the euro. He insisted that debt relief “would not help” the immiserated country.

Yet the argument that austerity is unsustainable is now heard far beyond the Syriza government. The International Monetary Fund is among those that have demanded “unconditional” debt relief. Under the current bailout terms, Greece’s interest payments on its debt (roughly €330bn) will continually rise, consuming 60 per cent of its budget by 2060. The IMF has rightly proposed an extended repayment period and a fixed interest rate of 1.5 per cent. Faced with German intransigence, it is refusing to provide further funding.

Ever since the European Central Bank president, Mario Draghi, declared in 2012 that he was prepared to do “whatever it takes” to preserve the single currency, EU member states have relied on monetary policy to contain the crisis. This complacent approach could unravel. From the euro’s inception, economists have warned of the dangers of a monetary union that is unmatched by fiscal and political union. The UK, partly for these reasons, wisely rejected membership, but other states have been condemned to stagnation. As Felix Martin writes on page 15, “Italy today is worse off than it was not just in 2007, but in 1997. National output per head has stagnated for 20 years – an astonishing . . . statistic.”

Germany’s refusal to support demand (having benefited from a fixed exchange rate) undermined the principles of European solidarity and shared prosperity. German unemployment has fallen to 4.1 per cent, the lowest level since 1981, but joblessness is at 23.4 per cent in Greece, 19 per cent in Spain and 11.6 per cent in Italy. The youngest have suffered most. Youth unemployment is 46.5 per cent in Greece, 42.6 per cent in Spain and 36.4 per cent in Italy. No social model should tolerate such waste.

“If the euro fails, then Europe fails,” the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, has often asserted. Yet it does not follow that Europe will succeed if the euro survives. The continent that once aspired to be a rival superpower to the US is now a byword for decline, and ethnic nationalism and right-wing populism are thriving. In these circumstances, the surprise has been not voters’ intemperance, but their patience.

This article first appeared in the 08 December 2016 issue of the New Statesman, Brexit to Trump