Blow for Osborne as the deficit rises again

Borrowing so far this year is 10 per cent higher than in 2011.

Thanks to some dubious accounting, George Osborne was able to boast in his Autumn Statement that the deficit would be lower this year than last. But the actual figures (as opposed to the OBR's forecasts) show that it's still rising. Today's release from the Office for National Statistics reveals that borrowing was £17.5bn last month, £1.2bn higher than in November 2011. The deficit for the year to date is now £92.7bn, £8.3bn (9.9 per cent) higher than in the same period the previous year.

It was the anticipated £3.5bn windfall from the 4G spectrum auction that allowed Osborne to claim that the deficit would continue to fall in annual terms (it is 22.3 per cent lower than in 2009-10). Without that, the OBR's forecasts suggest that borrowing is set to come in at £123.8bn, £2.4bn higher than in 2011-12. So it's notable that the ONS release says that it "has yet to classify how the proceeds of the auction (or the initial deposits) should be treated under National Accounts rules and so how they will impact on the statistical measures in this bulletin." Should the ONS decide for any reason that the 4G receipts can't be counted toward deficit reduction, Osborne will be in trouble.

There was also bad news on growth as Q3 GDP was downgraded from 1 per cent to 0.9 per cent. This revision is statistically insignificant (the figures are constantly revised upwards and downwards) but it could be a prelude of worse things to come. There is a strong chance that the Q4 figures, which are released on 25 January, will show that the economy is shrinking again. The OBR has forecast a contraction of -0.1 per cent. Before the last growth figures were released, David Cameron memorably declared that "the good news will keep coming". He may soon have cause to reject those words.

Chancellor George Osborne leaves Number 11 Downing Street. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Theresa May’s stage-managed election campaign keeps the public at bay

Jeremy Corbyn’s approach may be chaotic, but at least it’s more authentic.

The worst part about running an election campaign for a politician? Having to meet the general public. Those ordinary folk can be a tricky lot, with their lack of regard for being on-message, and their pesky real-life concerns.

But it looks like Theresa May has decided to avoid this inconvenience altogether during this snap general election campaign, as it turns out her visit to Leeds last night was so stage-managed that she barely had to face the public.

Accusations have been whizzing around online that at a campaign event at the Shine building in Leeds, the Prime Minister spoke to a room full of guests invited by the party, rather than local people or people who work in the building’s office space.

The Telegraph’s Chris Hope tweeted a picture of the room in which May was addressing her audience yesterday evening a little before 7pm. He pointed out that, being in Leeds, she was in “Labour territory”:

But a few locals who spied this picture online claimed that the audience did not look like who you’d expect to see congregated at Shine – a grade II-listed Victorian school that has been renovated into a community project housing office space and meeting rooms.

“Ask why she didn’t meet any of the people at the business who work in that beautiful building. Everyone there was an invite-only Tory,” tweeted Rik Kendell, a Leeds-based developer and designer who says he works in the Shine building. “She didn’t arrive until we’d all left for the day. Everyone in the building past 6pm was invite-only . . . They seemed to seek out the most clinical corner for their PR photos. Such a beautiful building to work in.”

Other tweeters also found the snapshot jarring:

Shine’s founders have pointed out that they didn’t host or invite Theresa May – rather the party hired out the space for a private event: “All visitors pay for meeting space in Shine and we do not seek out, bid for, or otherwise host any political parties,” wrote managing director Dawn O'Keefe. The guestlist was not down to Shine, but to the Tory party.

The audience consisted of journalists and around 150 Tory activists, according to the Guardian. This was instead of employees from the 16 offices housed in the building. I have asked the Conservative Party for clarification of who was in the audience and whether it was invite-only and am awaiting its response.

Jeremy Corbyn accused May of “hiding from the public”, and local Labour MP Richard Burgon commented that, “like a medieval monarch, she simply briefly relocated her travelling court of admirers to town and then moved on without so much as a nod to the people she considers to be her lowly subjects”.

But it doesn’t look like the Tories’ painstaking stage-management is a fool-proof plan. Having uniform audiences of the party faithful on the campaign trail seems to be confusing the Prime Minister somewhat. During a visit to a (rather sparsely populated) factory in Clay Cross, Derbyshire, yesterday, she appeared to forget where exactly on the campaign trail she was:

The management of Corbyn’s campaign has also resulted in gaffes – but for opposite reasons. A slightly more chaotic approach has led to him facing the wrong way, with his back to the cameras.

Corbyn’s blunder is born out of his instinct to address the crowd rather than the cameras – May’s problem is the other way round. Both, however, seem far more comfortable talking to the party faithful, even if they are venturing out of safe seat territory.

Anoosh Chakelian is senior writer at the New Statesman.

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