Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from this morning's papers.

1. Economic crisis isn't over yet. This may not even be the beginning of the end (Guardian)

Statistically, the UK is out of recession – but it took an Olympian effort to achieve even this fragile upturn, writes Larry Elliott.

2. Gordon Brown’s secret army could defeat the coalition’s welfare and education reforms (Daily Telegraph)

Britain’s charities and quangos are now stuffed to the gunwales with Labour placemen, says Fraser Nelson.

3. There is no ‘unishambles’ in education (Independent)

The government's university reforms are putting a new focus on the student experience, promoting opportunity and helping reduce the public deficit, argues David Willetts.

4. Look out, wolves. The little pigs’ time is here (Times) (£)

Whether you’re Man Utd manager, Chief Whip or BBC boss, don’t expect deference any more, writes Gaby Hinsliff.

5. This withering assault on farm workers' wages is a race to the bottom (Guardian)

Farming is the last sector where pay rates have some level of protection, and now that is under threat, writes Polly Toynbee. Labour, take note.

6. Turkey stumbles on the road to Damascus (Financial Times)

Ankara has come to realise that it has been overtaken by events, writes Philip Stephens.

7. Good news for the economy at last... now can we cut taxes? (Daily Mail)

Osborne must recognise that high taxes are the enemy of enterprise and growth, says Alex Brummer.

8. Whether it’s the Hutton Report or Jimmy Savile, the BBC is hopeless in a crisis (Daily Telegraph)

Peter Rippon of Newsnight has been hung out to dry as his BBC bosses play the blame game, writes Andrew Gilligan.

9. The threat to local government's heroic, civilising role (Guardian)

Brutal cuts and the demands of core provision put services such as museums, parks and community halls at huge risk, says Tristram Hunt.

10. If the City of London loses the trust of the people it serves, whether home or abroad, it's finished (Independent)

Customers are not to be thought of as sales targets but as people with whom the institution aims to have a mutually profitable relationship, writes Andreas Whittam Smith.

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Why is Labour surging in Wales?

A new poll suggests Labour will not be going gently into that good night. 

Well where did that come from? The first two Welsh opinion polls of the general election campaign had given the Conservatives all-time high levels of support, and suggested that they were on course for an historic breakthrough in Wales. For Labour, in its strongest of all heartlands where it has won every general election from 1922 onwards, this year had looked like a desperate rear-guard action to defend as much of what they held as possible.

But today’s new Welsh Political Barometer poll has shaken things up a bit. It shows Labour support up nine percentage points in a fortnight, to 44 percent. The Conservatives are down seven points, to 34 per cent. Having been apparently on course for major losses, the new poll suggests that Labour may even be able to make ground in Wales: on a uniform swing these figures would project Labour to regain the Gower seat they narrowly lost two years ago.

There has been a clear trend towards Labour in the Britain-wide polls in recent days, while the upwards spike in Conservative support at the start of the campaign has also eroded. Nonetheless, the turnaround in fortunes in Wales appears particularly dramatic. After we had begun to consider the prospect of a genuinely historic election, this latest reading of the public mood suggests something much more in line with the last century of Welsh electoral politics.

What has happened to change things so dramatically? One possibility is always that this is simply an outlier – the "rogue poll" that basic sampling theory suggests will happen every now and then. As us psephologists are often required to say, "it’s just one poll". It may also be, as has been suggested by former party pollster James Morris, that Labour gains across Britain are more apparent than real: a function of a rise in the propensity of Labour supporters to respond to polls.

But if we assume that the direction of change shown by this poll is correct, even if the exact magnitude may not be, what might lie behind this resurgence in Labour’s fortunes in Wales?

One factor may simply be Rhodri Morgan. Sampling for the poll started on Thursday last week – less than a day after the announcement of the death of the much-loved former First Minister. Much of Welsh media coverage of politics in the days since has, understandably, focused on sympathetic accounts of Mr Morgan’s record and legacy. It would hardly be surprising if that had had some positive impact on the poll ratings of Rhodri Morgan’s party – which, we should note, are up significantly in this new poll not only for the general election but also in voting intentions for the Welsh Assembly. If this has played a role, such a sympathy factor is likely to be short-lived: by polling day, people’s minds will probably have refocussed on the electoral choice ahead of them.

But it could also be that Labour’s campaign in Wales is working. While Labour have been making modest ground across Britain, in Wales there has been a determined effort by the party to run a separate campaign from that of the UK-wide party, under the "Welsh Labour" brand that carried them to victory in last year’s devolved election and this year’s local council contests. Today saw the launch of the Welsh Labour manifesto. Unlike two years ago, when the party’s Welsh manifesto was only a modestly Welshed-up version of the UK-wide document, the 2017 Welsh Labour manifesto is a completely separate document. At the launch, First Minister Carwyn Jones – who, despite not being a candidate in this election is fronting the Welsh Labour campaign – did not even mention Jeremy Corbyn.

Carwyn Jones also represented Labour at last week’s ITV-Wales debate – in contrast to 2015, when Labour’s spokesperson was then Shadow Welsh Secretary Owen Smith. Jones gave an effective performance, being probably the best performer alongside Plaid Cymru’s Leanne Wood. In fact, Wood was also a participant in the peculiar, May-less and Corbyn-less, ITV debate in Manchester last Thursday, where she again performed capably. But her party have as yet been wholly unable to turn this public platform into support. The new Welsh poll shows Plaid Cymru down to merely nine percent. Nor are there any signs yet that the election campaign is helping the Liberal Democrats - their six percent support in the new Welsh poll puts them, almost unbelievably, at an even lower level than they secured in the disastrous election of two year ago.

This is only one poll. And the more general narrowing of the polls across Britain will likely lead to further intensification, by the Conservatives and their supporters in the press, of the idea of the election as a choice between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn as potential Prime Ministers. Even in Wales, this contrast does not play well for Labour. But parties do not dominate the politics of a nation for nearly a century, as Labour has done in Wales, just by accident. Under a strong Conservative challenge they certainly are, but Welsh Labour is not about to go gently into that good night.

Roger Scully is Professor of Political Science in the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University.

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