Morning Call: pick of the papers

The ten must-read comment pieces from this morning's papers.

1. Why Europe is floundering (Guardian)

Its architects envisioned the EU as a model for the world, but current dogma will achieve the opposite, writes John Gray.

2. Why the Tories are ready to risk detonating the Brussels bomb (Daily Telegraph)

Withdrawal from the EU has changed from being a fringe view to mainstream opinion, writes Peter Oborne.

3. Behold, we have a new Sir Humphrey Appleby (Times) (£)

The Attorney-General’s specious reasons for not publishing Prince Charles’s letters are beyond parody, says David Aaronovitch.

4. The Prince of Wales must be free to give his opinions (Daily Telegraph)

Any minister will tell you that the confidence of the Crown is vital for the system to work, writes Jack Straw.

5. The Treasury doesn't know best (Guardian)

Labour rightly wants to reform over-mighty markets, writes David Miliband. But the state also needs to fundamentally change.

6. How much has austerity really cost? (Financial Times)

The contribution of severe deficit reduction is worthy of debate, says Chris Giles.

7. Banning teams is the way to tackle football racism (Independent)

Now is Uefa's chance to send an unequivocal message that there is no place for racism in football, says an Independent leader.

8. Watch out Westminster – council politics just got sexy (Guardian)

We may think we live in a centralised state, but decisions made by local authorities have real impact on our lives, says Zoe Williams.

9. This glimmer of hope could be far brighter (Daily Mail)

George Osborne should be doing far more to help firms seize the chances opening up to them, says a Daily Mail editorial.

10. Malala paid dearly for claiming her right (Financial Times)

Countries that fail to educate females cause themselves incalculable damage, writes David Pilling.

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Shock Wales YouGov poll shows that Labour's Ukip nightmare is coming true

The fear that voting Ukip would prove a gateway drug for Labour voters appears to be being borne out. 

An astonishing new poll for the Cardiff University Governance Centre and ITV Cymru shows a historic result: the Conservatives ending a 167-year wait for an election victory in Wales.

The numbers that matter:

Conservatives: 40 per cent

Labour: 30 per cent

Plaid Cymru: 13 per cent

Liberal Democrats: 8 per cent

Ukip: 6 per cent

Others: 3 per cent

And for context, here’s what happened in 2015:

Labour 36.9 per cent

Conservatives 27.2 per cent

Ukip 13.6 per cent

Plaid Cymru 12.1 per cent

Liberal Democrat 6.5 per cent

Others 2.6 per cent

There’s a lot to note here. If repeated at a general election, this would mean Labour losing an election in Wales for the first time since the First World War. In addition to losing the popular vote, they would shed ten seats to the Tories.

We're talking about a far more significant reverse than merely losing the next election. 

I don’t want to detract from how bad the Labour performance is in a vacuum – they have lost 6.9 per cent of their vote on 2015, in any case the worst election performance for Labour in Wales since the rout of 1983.  But the really terrifying thing for Labour is not what is happening to their own vote, though that is pretty terrifying.

It’s what’s happened to the Conservative vote – growing in almost every direction. There is some direct Labour to Tory slippage. But the big problem is the longtime fear of Labour MPs – that voting for Ukip would be a gateway drug to voting for the mainstream right – appears to be being realised. Don't forget that most of the Ukip vote in Wales is drawn from people who voted Labour in 2010. (The unnoticed shift of the 2010-5 parliament in a lot of places was a big chunk of the Labour 2010 vote went to Ukip, but was replaced by a chunk of the 2010 Liberal Democrat vote.) 

If repeated across the United Kingdom, the Tory landslide will be larger than the 114 majority suggested by the polls and a simple national swing.

As I’ve said before, polls are useful, but they are not the be-all and end-all. The bad news is that this very much supports the pattern at elections since the referendum – Labour falling back, the Tories losing some votes to the Liberal Democrats but more than making up the loss thanks to the collapse of Ukip.

The word from Welsh Labour is that these figures “look about right” at least as far as the drop in the Labour vote, though of course they have no idea what is going on with their opponents’ vote share. As for the Conservatives, their early experiences on the doorstep do show the Ukip vote collapsing to their benefit.

One Labour MP said to me a few days again that they knew their vote was holding up – what they didn’t know was what was happening to their opponents. That’s particularly significant if you have a “safe seat” but less than 50 per cent of the vote.

Wales has local elections throughout the country on 4 May. They should provide an early sign whether these world-shaking figures are really true. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.

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