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What if ... Scotland had won in 1978?

With the World Cup just a few months away, football-haters from Dubai to Dudley are braced for a summer of misery. But in one of the world's newer states, there is barely a bad word said about the planet's biggest sporting jamboree. "If we hadn't won the cup in Argentina back in 1978," says Scotland's prime minister, Alex Salmond, "the devolution vote in '79 might have gone very differently.
And after that - who knows?"

As every man, woman and child north of the border can tell you, the summer of 1978 was an orgy of tartan triumphalism. Cheered off to Argentina by a frenzied Hampden Park crowd, Sir Ally MacLeod's boys returned as conquering heroes. Scotland positively bubbled with patriotic pride and nobody was surprised when, a year later, the Scots voted overwhelmingly for their own parliament in Jim Callaghan's referendum. Of course, the Welsh were not far behind.

Devolution was one of the Labour government's final acts. That October, Callaghan gave way to Margaret Thatcher's minority government. It was a historic moment: even today, the Welsh Parliament in Cardiff is known locally as the Callaghan Building. The bonds of the United Kingdom were coming undone, and as the Thatcherite experiment ran into controversy, the last ties snapped. By the late 1980s, the question was not if Scotland would break away, but when.

The SNP played its cards brilliantly. Avoiding complicated economic arguments, it based its campaign around Scotland's heroes, the "Boys of Buenos Aires". Once independence was assured, Coach MacLeod became the first Scottish president. Again, where Scotland led, Wales followed. By 1997, the English were angry, bewildered and alone - a people defined by their peevish prime minister, the apparently indestructible John Major.

Almost 15 years on, however, the English may be having the last laugh. When Irn-Bru collapsed a few weeks ago, the Caledonian Tiger's plight was clear for all to see. England's economy may not be in great shape, but Major's decision to quit the EU means it escaped the fallout from the Welsh property meltdown. And while Sir Norman Fowler may not be the world's most glamorous leader, England's veteran PM retains the confidence of the Tory shires, enjoying a popularity that Salmond can only envy.

They would never admit it publicly - but deep down, the Scots must wonder whether winning the World Cup was such a blessing after all.

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