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Close to the border

Published 25 October 2007

Observations on Turkey

Those wondering when Turkey will launch a military offensive against Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq should heed the old rhyme: "Remember, remember the fifth of November." Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish prime minister, is due to visit Washington that day. It is scarcely conceivable that he would order an incursion before that point.

To do so would involve sending troops from Nato's second-biggest army into a country controlled by Nato's largest army, and destabilising the only peaceful region of Iraq. Erdogan could expect a White House welcome several degrees below zero. Why, then, is he sounding so belligerent?

When I interviewed him for the Times this past weekend, he talked of a military operation as if it was inevitable. He pointed out that the Turkish parliament had voted 507-19 to authorise military action. He said that Turkey had repeatedly asked the governments of the US and Iraq to crack down on the separatist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), but they had done nothing, and that Turkish patience was exhausted. "Whatever is necessary will be done," he declared. "We don't have to get permission from anybody."

Such comments are designed to assuage the fury of Erdogan's intensely nationalistic countrymen following not only a rash of PKK attacks on Turkish soldiers, but a move by the US Congress to define the mass killing of Armenians in Ottoman Turkey during the First World War as genocide.

More importantly, Erdogan's belligerent rhetoric is intended to avert the very action he threatens. He is trying to generate such alarm in Washington and Baghdad that they tackle the PKK themselves.

Erdogan is no fool. He knows that the arguments against a Turkish incursion into northern Iraq far outweigh those in favour. Such a drastic move would cause a major breach with Washington, fuel opposition to Turkish membership of the EU, split Nato and compound the chaos in Iraq. It would reverse the progress Turkey has made towards integrating its own Kurdish minority.

And it would stand scant chance of success. The Turkish army has never been able to crush the PKK in its own territory, let alone in the rugged terrain across the border. Erdogan has acknowledged that 24 previous cross-border operations gained nothing. In all likelihood the 3,500 PKK guerrillas in northern Iraq would simply melt into the mountains or seek to destroy the pipelines carrying Iraqi oil into Turkey, while their comrades north of the border stepped up their attacks on Turkish targets.

So far Erdogan's strategy appears to be paying off. Washington did launch what the US State Department called a "diplomatic full-court press". President Bush, the secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice, and the defence secretary, Robert Gates, all begged their Turkish counterparts for restraint and promised US support. The Iraqi government pledged its full co-operation. Envoys shuttled frantically between capitals.

The outcome is still far from clear. Neither the US nor the Iraqi government has surplus troops to send to northern Iraq. They are instead pressuring Iraq's Kurdish leaders to curtail PKK activities in their semi-autonomous region, arguing that the relative security they have achieved since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein will be at risk if they alienate Turkey.

Is the regional government willing to crack down on fellow Kurds, stop their cross-border raids and arrest their commanders? Does it have the capability to do so? If the answers to those two key questions are "no" - and they may be - Erdogan's bluff will be called. His nation's anger will leave him with little choice but to follow through on his threat, whatever the cost.

Martin Fletcher is associate editor of the Times

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11 comments from readers

baristarim
25 October 2007 at 13:46

So what are you suggesting? That Turkey sits on its hand when its soldiers are ambushed and kidnapped by people crossing from ANOTHER country, trained in bases in ANOTHER country, getting logistical support in ANOTHER country?

Even the PKK leaders say that their bases and command structures are in Northern Iraq.

This is not a question of Erdogan "having his bluff called" - this is no friggin' bluff. Sometimes the worst kind of action is better than inaction.

Why no blame for people whose job it is to provide the security of Iraq? What kind of a "STABLE heaven" is this that there are terrorist camps, command centers and training grounds all over the place?

Oh, I see - since they cause problems not in Iraq that qualifies Northern Iraq as "heaven on earth".

One other thing: PKK widely uses anti-personnel mines whose production and use, even stockage, is expressly forbidden by the UNITED NATIONS.

That's a terrorist organization my friend - try to lame some blame on them too.

Turkey can have its "bluff" called, don't worry - just don't assume that we are "bluffind". That's what people used to say between 1964 and 1974 about Turkish threats for intervention in the face of mounting ethnic cleansing against the Turkish Cypriots by nationalist Greek Cypriots pushing for Enosis.

To you, I say: "Remember, remember Cyprus"...

photoline
25 October 2007 at 14:12

Turkey is not the fool it used to be. In the old days - we would go along with whatever our allies asked us to do. No more.

Armenians for many years pushed for opening the Turkish archives to prove a genocide happened. When Turkey said fine - let's jointly investigate - suddenly there is no interest...and the reason is it already proven by many historians....these are the same historians that live in countries that were at war with the Ottomans.....

A bluff is when there is a threat with no intention of follow through.....when Turkey threatens there is intention. It may not benefit Turkey - but in this scenario it will be more of a hell for the Kurds and the US.

SharifL
25 October 2007 at 16:20

The comments above show a lack of understanding on the Kurdish issue. They are not fighting for fun, but for freedom, which we should all look into and seek solution, other than killings. Turkey can offer the Kurds some sort of confederation acceptable to both sides? That might allow Turkey to expand at the expense of Iraq, Iran, and Syria while giving the Kurds enough autonomy and independence to satisfy them. I don't think the Kurds care much about their presence in international affairs and they must realize they can never play the role of a great nation. In time, given the right leaders and policies, true integration might take place. Talk to a Turkish guy and you will see violent they get to this suggestion.

someone
25 October 2007 at 20:03

Answer to SharifL: There are many obstacles for confederation. Besides being not acceptable to any Turk, it has its economical obstacles. Conferation should be able to stand on its feet with its own taxes and development. But the development in the region totally depends on the taxpayers living in the west coast. The most of the land in Southeast region of Turkey is owned by a handful of landlords, who are also Kurds. Conferation or whatever will not and cannot solve the poverty in the villages which are owned by the landlords. Unless there is no land reform (not conferation), which is BTW very difficult - tried and failed by PM Ecevit, no one can resolve the unemployment in Southeast region. I recommend you to read before contribute.

photoline
25 October 2007 at 20:33

Outsiders look at PKK and think they are some sort of freedom fighters. Well, having lived in Mardin and Kiziltepe, I can tell you they are not freedom fighters. They resort to illegal taxation, drug trafficking, and threats to fund themselves. In doing this, they'll kill Kurds, Turks, and any one who is in disagreement with them. They're used by foreign forces as a bargaining chip with Turkey. Even if you annex south east and give it to them, they will not stop. Keep in mind that Kurds are spread all over the country. Do you think you can force the Kurds in Istanbul and Izmir to move to the Southeast if they have a confederation? When I was working in Mardin, I received a hand written note signed from PKK saying that if I did not pay them tax, my family would be tortured and killed. This is when I was serving as a Doctor saving Kurdish lives. A teacher friend of mine and his family was butchered in his house because he did not agree with them...and he was Kurdish. PKK will only understand from brute force...which they will get. Westerners who are commenting here have no clue about Kurds or PKK.

Lazlee
26 October 2007 at 03:26

Your romantic notions of the PKK are beyond absurd.

Many, if not MOST, of the 35,000+ murdered by PKK terrorists are other unarmed civilian Kurds. Do you know a special practice of the PKK was to kill teachers in schools predominantly attended by Turkish-Kurd children?

What makes the situation particularly egregious is that the PKK is now crossing into Turkey's sovereign territory and killing Turkish civilians using weapons supplied by the U.S. Turks know this. That's one reason why public opinion of the U.S. in Turkey has sunk to a new lowest low.

Martin Fletcher, if you think Turks are bluffing, you are as foolish as the PKK and haven't learned from history.

redlobo
26 October 2007 at 04:59

Answer to whose concerned about the matter. Even if it is going to be a bloody end, and even if the independence of Turkey is going to be jeopardized; Turkey has the right to take any measures against so called "freedom fighters" in Northern Iraq; confederation?, or separate constitution? cannot be conidered as solutions. Even those solutions have been experimented in Spain, they hold no effect there, and they will make the situation worse in Turkei after 20 years.

Don't you dare to fool Turkei, even it is now managed by coward capitalist islamic government, Turkey holds no intention to give up this fight until Kurds leave the fake dream of "Big Kurdistan". They are even claiming sea-side cities of Turkei to be part of Kurdistan, pehh, they claim, we fight, cruel, maybe wrong and uncivilized but it is simple enough to drown these plans. Both nations suffered enough and they will suffer in the future, those lands belong to nobody, not even turks, armenians, greeks or kurds. Turks live there for now, right or not, only they will leave those lands in coffins.

SharifL
26 October 2007 at 08:44

AS I said in my previous post, Turks do not appreciate the desires of Kurds. I said: Talk to a Turkish guy and you will see violent they get to this suggestion want to point out that i am not a Kurd or a turk, just observing the situation. It appears freedom and human rights have no value with Turks, or for that matter with a vast majority of Muslims; may be that is why they are all ruled by the armies. Talk to them about Palestine, or Chechniia or Kashmir. Suddenly you see how much they lover to side with these 'unfortunate' people being slaved by the infidel Jews and Christians and so on. Give me a break. I also want freedom for these people, but I do not forget what we are doing to our minorities.Should Kosov belong to Serbia? I love to know from you.

graywolfyellow
26 October 2007 at 16:06

If you "Remember, remember Cyprus", then surely you must also remember Istanbul 1955 when the government -backed Turkish mob ethnically cleansed 150,000 Greeks from Istanbul. Turkey's own courts found the government guilty of this crime in 1963. Do you also remember Phocaea in 1914 when your "honorable" army slaughtered 3000 Greek civilians. The list goes on and on but many in Turkey have selective memories.

redlobo
26 October 2007 at 17:49

Oh come on, before the greek event in Istanbul the house of Ataturk in Salonika was sabotaged, as that event became agitator and sad events occured in Istanbul.

Phocaea event... You made me laugh, read the history from other sides sometimes. How easily you forget genocide of west trachia Turks in 1912-1913 by greek and bulgarian.

You r talking about the freedom and understanding, but Greeks do not accept the trachia minority as "Turks", according to them they are Muslim Greeks;and u are applying double standards on so-called freedom and just drown in your ignorance.

My homland, Turkey is now being ruled by a islamic, narrwominded, corrupt and capitalist slave governmnt. In any cases I prefer army rather then them, but this statemet has nothing to do about Kurds. In the fighting of PKK, Turkish army acted lots of faults ad has make most of things wrong, sipmly perceived the things in a wrong way. Personally, I do accept all separatist groups on the world as terrorists, and it has nothing about "freedom", it is the game of power on capitalism.

Your beloved minority Armenians formed a terrorist organisation in Europe back in 70s; ASALA, they were cruel on Turkey's bureocrates abroad (conculates, ambassadors,..) Family, I say it women and children were killed, and Europe only defined ASALA as terrorist organization when one of its airports were bombed by ASALA terrorists.

So please, dont try to give lessons about understanding of freedom, or humanity, or any "civilized manners" that ONLY you are "aware of"... By humiliating Turk, you dont place yourself ito a higher position. Because you simply cannot...

photoline
26 October 2007 at 18:58

Dear graywolfyellow,

Atrocoties happened on both sides, and it is not always the Turks. I was talking to my Greek friend's mother who use to live in Izmir - her first question was - "is Izmir built up again after the Greeks burned it down before their departure?"

On December 28, 1963 the Daily Express reported:‘We went tonight into the sealed off Turkish Cypriot Quarter of Nicosia in which 200 to 300 people had been slaughtered in the last five days. We were the first Western reporters there and we have seen sights too

frightful to be described in print. Horror so extreme that the people seemed stunned beyond tears.’ Many Turkish Cypriots escaped to Turkey, and the remainder

withdrew into defended enclaves and could no longer participate in the government of Cyprus.

Instead of taking action against the Greek Cypriots, the British, the Americans and the UN treated them as ‘the Government of Cyprus,’ and still do to this day.