Is it just media hype?
Is it just media hype?
The Winklevii have announced they are going to venture out from under Zuckerberg’s lengthy shadow in an attempt to re-establish themselves as dotcom entrepreneurs.
In a headline grabbing announcement, which is as devoid of substance as it is full of Hollywood hype, the two brothers intend to set up Math-Based Asset Services LLC to sponsor a Bitcoin Trust.
This trust will float on the stock exchange, initially selling $20m worth of shares. There has yet to be an answer on whether an exchange will accept the offering and the trust that will hold the portfolio is yet to be set up.
Despite most news sites picking up on the story, there are no real financial details. If media attention was the goal here, that certainly seems to have been achieved.
The SEC filing comes with a raft of risks , many of which would be enough to deter any serious investor. This one I find especially chilling: "A decline in the popularity or acceptance of the Bitcoin Network would harm the price of the Shares."
In April the twins claimed in an interview with the New York Times that they owned 1 per cent of all Bitcoins in existence. That amounts to what was worth $11m when Bitcoin was at its peak in March but is now worth $8m.
As the SEC filling reminds us, that fall of $3m over just a period of a few months is a result of nothing more than a decline in popularity. Nothing else is keeping the Bitcoin boat afloat.
The risks don’t end there. The SEC filing warns that as "the sponsor and its management have no history of operating an investment vehicle like the Trust, their experience may be inadequate or unsuitable to manage the Trust".
The twins said in the New York Times interview their faith in Bitcoin was down to it being a finite currency, that when 2040 rolled around and the Bitcoin tap was turned off it would result in the price of Bitcoin rising ever higher.
Bitcoin, though is not as finite as people seem to think. The reason being, I can divide my Bitcoin as many times as I want. Unlike tradition currencies, which are tied to physical tender, I can very simply pay someone 00000000.1 Bitcoin.
Judging by the amount of interest Bitcoin received from amateur speculators, many of which have had little or no dealings with stocks, share or currency exchange, the Bitcoin Trust could engender a similar interest.
People should be very wary of investing in something that is buoyed along by media hype, popularity and remains an unknown quantity, beset by problems.