View all newsletters
Sign up to our newsletters

Support 110 years of independent journalism.

  1. Politics
7 July 2017

How excited should Labour be about its 8-point poll lead?

It's well in excess of what the party needs to be in minority or even narrow majority territory.

By Stephen Bush

The latest Times/YouGov poll has Labour stretching its lead to eight points over the Conservatives, with 46 per cent to 38 per cent. It means that the month following the election is Labour’s best in the polls since before the invasion of Iraq.

Labour just needs a one-point swing to gain 30 seats from the Conservatives, and with that form a comfortable if not commanding minority government – the Conservatives need just a one point swing from Labour to gain 29 seats and a majority in the Commons.  Labour’s eight-point lead is well in excess of what the party needs to be in minority or even narrow majority territory.

There are numerous reasons for the state of the polls – Grenfell, both in terms of what it symbolised and in Theresa May’s leaden-footed response, the public divisions in the Cabinet, the relative unity of the Labour party – but part of the reason is surely revealed in the latest round of ONS data: household disposable income is falling at its fastest rate since 2011.

The blunt truth is that the fall in the value of sterling since the Brexit vote has made almost everyone in the United Kingdom poorer. As far as the politics goes, there are now ten DUP-shaped holes in the government’s case for spending restraint.

All of which increases the chances that, for as long as the government’s majority holds, and whoever leads it, the gravitational pull on the Conservative side is for the parliament to run long, in the hope that something – an economic recovery, a softer Brexit, a free trade bonanza following a harder Brexit, a new leader, an interim leader, it depends which Conservative MP you talk to – turns up. (Don’t forget that thanks to the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, the government’s capacity to shrug off defeats is that much greater than it was in 1974-79, when the government was, in any case, able to cobble together working arrangements to stay in office even after it lost its tiny majority.)

Select and enter your email address Your weekly guide to the best writing on ideas, politics, books and culture every Saturday. The best way to sign up for The Saturday Read is via saturdayread.substack.com The New Statesman's quick and essential guide to the news and politics of the day. The best way to sign up for Morning Call is via morningcall.substack.com Our Thursday ideas newsletter, delving into philosophy, criticism, and intellectual history. The best way to sign up for The Salvo is via thesalvo.substack.com Stay up to date with NS events, subscription offers & updates. Weekly analysis of the shift to a new economy from the New Statesman's Spotlight on Policy team. The best way to sign up for The Green Transition is via spotlightonpolicy.substack.com
  • Administration / Office
  • Arts and Culture
  • Board Member
  • Business / Corporate Services
  • Client / Customer Services
  • Communications
  • Construction, Works, Engineering
  • Education, Curriculum and Teaching
  • Environment, Conservation and NRM
  • Facility / Grounds Management and Maintenance
  • Finance Management
  • Health - Medical and Nursing Management
  • HR, Training and Organisational Development
  • Information and Communications Technology
  • Information Services, Statistics, Records, Archives
  • Infrastructure Management - Transport, Utilities
  • Legal Officers and Practitioners
  • Librarians and Library Management
  • Management
  • Marketing
  • OH&S, Risk Management
  • Operations Management
  • Planning, Policy, Strategy
  • Printing, Design, Publishing, Web
  • Projects, Programs and Advisors
  • Property, Assets and Fleet Management
  • Public Relations and Media
  • Purchasing and Procurement
  • Quality Management
  • Science and Technical Research and Development
  • Security and Law Enforcement
  • Service Delivery
  • Sport and Recreation
  • Travel, Accommodation, Tourism
  • Wellbeing, Community / Social Services
Visit our privacy Policy for more information about our services, how New Statesman Media Group may use, process and share your personal data, including information on your rights in respect of your personal data and how you can unsubscribe from future marketing communications.
THANK YOU

Which for optimistic Conservatives will summon up memories of 1992, when they held on through years of recession and Labour poll leads to win unexpectedly, thanks to a new – ish – leader in the shape of John Major. But Labour’s hope is that the parliament they are re-running is not 1987-1992, but 1992-7. 

Content from our partners
The promise of prevention
How Labour hopes to make the UK a leader in green energy
Is now the time to rethink health and care for older people? With Age UK

Select and enter your email address Your weekly guide to the best writing on ideas, politics, books and culture every Saturday. The best way to sign up for The Saturday Read is via saturdayread.substack.com The New Statesman's quick and essential guide to the news and politics of the day. The best way to sign up for Morning Call is via morningcall.substack.com Our Thursday ideas newsletter, delving into philosophy, criticism, and intellectual history. The best way to sign up for The Salvo is via thesalvo.substack.com Stay up to date with NS events, subscription offers & updates. Weekly analysis of the shift to a new economy from the New Statesman's Spotlight on Policy team. The best way to sign up for The Green Transition is via spotlightonpolicy.substack.com
  • Administration / Office
  • Arts and Culture
  • Board Member
  • Business / Corporate Services
  • Client / Customer Services
  • Communications
  • Construction, Works, Engineering
  • Education, Curriculum and Teaching
  • Environment, Conservation and NRM
  • Facility / Grounds Management and Maintenance
  • Finance Management
  • Health - Medical and Nursing Management
  • HR, Training and Organisational Development
  • Information and Communications Technology
  • Information Services, Statistics, Records, Archives
  • Infrastructure Management - Transport, Utilities
  • Legal Officers and Practitioners
  • Librarians and Library Management
  • Management
  • Marketing
  • OH&S, Risk Management
  • Operations Management
  • Planning, Policy, Strategy
  • Printing, Design, Publishing, Web
  • Projects, Programs and Advisors
  • Property, Assets and Fleet Management
  • Public Relations and Media
  • Purchasing and Procurement
  • Quality Management
  • Science and Technical Research and Development
  • Security and Law Enforcement
  • Service Delivery
  • Sport and Recreation
  • Travel, Accommodation, Tourism
  • Wellbeing, Community / Social Services
Visit our privacy Policy for more information about our services, how New Statesman Media Group may use, process and share your personal data, including information on your rights in respect of your personal data and how you can unsubscribe from future marketing communications.
THANK YOU