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The House of Lords must give EU citizens the right to remain

The government has used more than 3m UK residents as pawns. But the Lords could put a stop to it. 

Theresa May, David Davies and Boris Johnson like playing games. They are well versed in moving around a board, measuring their opponents and using pawns to lure them in.

It is a great relief, then, that the House of Lords are expected to put an end to the game the government is so desperate to play, and stop it from using people as pieces in a negotiation. 

It is my hope the Lords will do this by tabling an amendment to unilaterally secure the rights of EU nationals living in the UK, forcing the House of Commons to think once again.

It will be a welcome move by the Lords, with the country once again relying on an extra level of scrutiny to make sure the government's reckless actions do not risk ruining the lives of people who have lived here for decades.

And if the Lords do so, it will be to support the will of the people: an ICM poll after the referendum found some 84 per cent of British people support letting EU migrants stay, including 77 per cent of Leave voters. And a more recent Opinium poll found that only five per cent of Britons think EU nationals currently living in the UK should be asked to leave.

But those who lead us into the biggest negotiations of our time have said they simply cannot guarantee the rights of more than 3m EU citizens living in the UK until the rights of the 1.2m British citizens in the EU are reciprocated.

Constituents tell me they fear a situation where the government sits contemplating the different ways it can implement its policy of mass deportations.

Indeed, millions of people who are active in our communities and play a vital role in the economy are now worried about exactly that. My own constituents - and those of my colleagues in Westminster - are scared their lives will be torn apart if the government is not given a reciprocal gesture of goodwill.

Migrants make up 10.9 per cent of the workforce. These are people who have added to the sciences, to innovation, to the NHS and social care. These are people, not collateral.

Not only immoral, this approach seems fundamentally flawed. Would it not, as our Prime Minister said, be a good thing to approach the negotiations as friends with our European neighbours? Would it, therefore, not be the greatest gesture of friendship to afford EU citizens their right to reside in the UK at the soonest possible opportunity?

Already a leaked document has indicated the government’s approach making it difficult for EU nationals in the UK to acquire permanent residence is likely to mean British nationals living on the continent can expect a backlash of their own.

So, as the government prepares to quash any amendments proposed by the Lords to its bill, the onus will shift onto MPs on all sides of the house to accept this crucial amendment. 

Before the next vote Democratic Unionist Party and Conservative politicians must all ask themselves, are they happy to use people as “negotiating capital”?

Catherine West is the Labour MP for Hornsey and Wood Green. 

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Scotland's vast deficit remains an obstacle to independence

Though the country's financial position has improved, independence would still risk severe austerity. 

For the SNP, the annual Scottish public spending figures bring good and bad news. The good news, such as it is, is that Scotland's deficit fell by £1.3bn in 2016/17. The bad news is that it remains £13.3bn or 8.3 per cent of GDP – three times the UK figure of 2.4 per cent (£46.2bn) and vastly higher than the white paper's worst case scenario of £5.5bn. 

These figures, it's important to note, include Scotland's geographic share of North Sea oil and gas revenue. The "oil bonus" that the SNP once boasted of has withered since the collapse in commodity prices. Though revenue rose from £56m the previous year to £208m, this remains a fraction of the £8bn recorded in 2011/12. Total public sector revenue was £312 per person below the UK average, while expenditure was £1,437 higher. Though the SNP is playing down the figures as "a snapshot", the white paper unambiguously stated: "GERS [Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland] is the authoritative publication on Scotland’s public finances". 

As before, Nicola Sturgeon has warned of the threat posed by Brexit to the Scottish economy. But the country's black hole means the risks of independence remain immense. As a new state, Scotland would be forced to pay a premium on its debt, resulting in an even greater fiscal gap. Were it to use the pound without permission, with no independent central bank and no lender of last resort, borrowing costs would rise still further. To offset a Greek-style crisis, Scotland would be forced to impose dramatic austerity. 

Sturgeon is undoubtedly right to warn of the risks of Brexit (particularly of the "hard" variety). But for a large number of Scots, this is merely cause to avoid the added turmoil of independence. Though eventual EU membership would benefit Scotland, its UK trade is worth four times as much as that with Europe. 

Of course, for a true nationalist, economics is irrelevant. Independence is a good in itself and sovereignty always trumps prosperity (a point on which Scottish nationalists align with English Brexiteers). But if Scotland is to ever depart the UK, the SNP will need to win over pragmatists, too. In that quest, Scotland's deficit remains a vast obstacle. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.