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Martin McGuinness resigns: What you need to know

An election looms in Northern Ireland as the deputy first minister quits over the Arlene Foster row.

Martin McGuinness, the deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland and peace process veteran, has resigned over the scandal engulfing Arlene Foster, the unionist First Minister.

McGuinness, who was Sinn Féin's chief negotiator in the Northern Ireland peace process, said in a letter to the Northern Ireland Assembly speaker that Foster's position "is not credible or tenable". 

He also demanded an election so that voters could "make their own judgement" on the political parties. 

Foster, from the Democratic Unionist Party, is implicated in the "cash for ash" affair, a badly-handled renewables project where public money appears to have been squandered.

McGuinness wrote that "over ten difficult and testing years" he had tried to make the power-sharing government work, but that Foster had refused to stand aside over the scandal.

He continued: "It is with deep regret and reluctance, that I am tendering my resignation as deputy First Minister with effect from 5pm on Monday, 9th January, 2017."

Sinn Féin will not be tendering another candidate for the role, which will put pressure on the government to hold an election, or place the basis of the power-sharing agreement in jeopardy.

So what does this mean for the stability of Northern Irish politics? Here are a couple of things to take into account:

"Cash for ash" is a public money scandal

Although there's nothing good about a botched energy scheme that may have cost taxpayers nearly £500m, "cash for ash" is at least fairly tame by Northern Irish standards, being a scandal that is about taxpayers, rather than sectarian violence.

The Renewable Heat Incentive scheme was designed to encourage more renewable energy use. However, a whistleblower claimed the scheme was a waste of money, with farmers being paid to heat empty sheds.

The minister in charge of the scheme was Arlene Foster, who became First Minister in January 2016. She has so far refused to resign, and has claimed that the criticism of her is misogynistic.

Some already expected Martin McGuinness to step down

McGuinness is one of the heavyweights of Northern Irish politics, having played a key role both in the peace process and in the post-Good Friday Agreement governments. McGuinness is known to be undergoing treatment for an illness, but his party has refused to give any more information about the subject. He missed a trade mission to China on "medical advice" and Sinn Féin president Gerry Adams seemed to suggest it was a challenge.

There are new pressures on the peace process

As Kevin Meagher wrote in The Staggers last week, after McGuinness and Adams step down, a new generation of republicans will have to navigate an increasingly militant fringe, plus a British Prime Minister who seems to have forgotten that abolishing the Human Rights Act would also knock away the foundations of the Good Friday Agreement. 

An election looms

McGuinness was clear in his letter that this is what he is demanding - and because of the unique power-sharing arrangements in Northern Ireland, he is likely to get it. The deputy First Minister is actually a joint office held with the First Minister, so McGuinness in theory at least is bringing Foster down with him. According to the rules: "One cannot be in position without the other."

Julia Rampen is the digital news editor of the New Statesman (previously editor of The Staggers, The New Statesman's online rolling politics blog). She has also been deputy editor at Mirror Money Online and has worked as a financial journalist for several trade magazines. 

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Labour is launching a stealthy Scottish comeback - thanks to Jeremy Corbyn and the Daily Mail

The Scottish Labour strategy is paying off - and hard evidence that it works may be more plentiful come 8 June 2017

When I suggested to a senior Scottish Labour figure earlier this year that the party was a car crash, he rejected my assertion.

“We’re past that,” he said gloomily. “Now we’re the burnt-out wreck in a field that no-one even notices anymore.”

And yet, just as the election campaign has seen Jeremy Corbyn transformed from an outdated jalopy into Chitty Chitty Bang Bang magically soaring in the polls, Scottish Labour is beginning to look roadworthy again.

And it’s all down to two apparently contradictory forces – Corbyn and The Daily Mail.

Kezia Dugdale’s decision to hire Alan Roden, then the Scottish Daily Mail’s political editor, as her spin doctor in chief last summer was said to have lost her some party members. It may win her some new members of parliament just nine months later.

Roden’s undoubted nose for a story and nous in driving the news agenda, learned in his years at the Mail, has seen Nicola Sturgeon repeatedly forced to defend her government record on health and education in recent weeks, even though her Holyrood administration is not up for election next month.

On ITV’s leaders debate she confessed that, despite 10 years in power, the Scottish education system is in need of some attention. And a few days later she was taken to task during a BBC debate involving the Scottish leaders by a nurse who told her she had to visit a food bank to get by. The subsequent SNP attempt to smear that nurse was a pathetic mis-step by the party that suggested their media operation had gone awry.

It’s not the Tories putting Sturgeon on the defence. They, like the SNP, are happy to contend the general election on constitutional issues in the hope of corralling the unionist vote or even just the votes of those that don’t yet want a second independence referendum. It is Labour who are spotting the opportunities and maximising them.

However, that would not be enough alone. For although folk like Dugdale as a person – as evidenced in Lord Ashcroft’s latest polling - she lacks the policy chops to build on that. Witness her dopey proposal ahead of the last Holyrood election to raise income tax.

Dugdale may be a self-confessed Blairite but what’s powering Scottish Labour just now is Jeremy Corbyn’s more left-wing policy platform.

For as Brexit has dropped down the agenda at this election, and bread and butter stuff like health and education has moved centre stage, Scots are seeing that for all the SNP’s left wing rhetoric, after 10 years in power in Holyrood, there’s not a lot of progressive policy to show for it.

Corbyn’s manifesto, even though huge chunks of it won’t apply in Scotland, is progressive. The evidence is anecdotal at the moment, but it seems some Scots voters find it more attractive than the timid managerialism of the SNP. This is particularly the case with another independence referendum looking very unlikely before the 2020s, on either the nationalists' or the Conservatives' timetable.

Evidence that the Scottish Labour strategy has worked may be more plentiful come 8 June 2017. The polls, albeit with small sample sizes so best approached with caution, have Ian Murray streets ahead in the battle to defend Edinburgh South. There’s a lot of optimism in East Lothian where Labour won the council earlier in May and MSP Iain Gray increased his majority at the Scottish election last year. Labour have chosen their local candidate well in local teacher Martin Whitfield, and if the unionist vote swings behind him he could overhaul sitting MP George Kerevan’s 7,000 majority. (As we learned in 2015, apparently safe majorities mean nothing in the face of larger electoral forces). In East Renfrewshire, Labour's Blair McDougall, the man who led Better Together in 2014, can out-unionist the Tory candidate.

But, while in April, it was suggested that these three seats would be the sole focus of the Scottish Labour campaign, that attitude has changed after the local elections. Labour lost Glasgow but did not implode. In chunks of their former west of Scotland heartlands there was signs of life.

Mhairi Black’s a media darling, but her reputation as a local MP rather than a local celebrity is not great. Labour would love to unseat her, in what would be a huge upset, or perhaps more realistically go after Gavin Newlands in the neighbouring Paisley seat.

They are also sniffing Glasgow East. With Natalie McGarry’s stint as MP ending in tears – a police investigation, voting in her wedding dress and fainting in the chamber sums up her two years in Westminster – Labour ought to be in with a chance in the deprived neighbourhoods of Glasgow’s east end.

Labour in Scotland doesn’t feel like such a wreck anymore. Alan Roden’s Daily Mail-honed media nous has grabbed attention. Corbyn’s progressive policies have put fuel in the tank.

After polling day, the party will be able to fit all its Scottish MPs comfortably in a small hatchback, compared to the double decker bus necessary just a few years back.

But this general election could give the party the necessary shove to get on to the long road back.

James Millar is a political journalist and founder of the Political Yeti's Politics Podcast. He is co-author of The Gender Agenda, which will be published July 21 by Jessica Kingsley Publishing.

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