View all newsletters
Sign up to our newsletters

Support 110 years of independent journalism.

  1. Politics
  2. The Staggers
16 November 2016

Meet Britain’s largest voter group – the authoritarian populists

When anti-immigration voters join forces, they are a formidable force. 

By Julia Rampen

If liberal lefties feel isolated, they are right to do so, according to analysis from YouGov, which paints a stark picture of voters’ priorities today. 

Back in the 1980s, when the term “authoritarian populist” first was termed, it was an academic construct. It described voters who share a desire for a hawkish foreign policy, a crackdown on immigration, disapproval of the European Union and cynicism for human rights laws.

By applying it to political data, YouGov and Professor David Sanders from the University of Essex found it was possible to divide voters into four tribes – the liberal left, the liberal centre-right, the centrist authoritarian populists, and the authoritarian populist right. 

The good news for the liberal left is that in most European countries, it tends to be the biggest tribe in politics. In the UK, 37 per cent of voters are so inclined. 

The bad news, though, is that when you put the moderate and more right-wing authoritarian populists together, roughly half (48 per cent) of British voters fall into that camp. 

Select and enter your email address Your weekly guide to the best writing on ideas, politics, books and culture every Saturday. The best way to sign up for The Saturday Read is via saturdayread.substack.com The New Statesman's quick and essential guide to the news and politics of the day. The best way to sign up for Morning Call is via morningcall.substack.com Our Thursday ideas newsletter, delving into philosophy, criticism, and intellectual history. The best way to sign up for The Salvo is via thesalvo.substack.com Stay up to date with NS events, subscription offers & updates. Weekly analysis of the shift to a new economy from the New Statesman's Spotlight on Policy team. The best way to sign up for The Green Transition is via spotlightonpolicy.substack.com
  • Administration / Office
  • Arts and Culture
  • Board Member
  • Business / Corporate Services
  • Client / Customer Services
  • Communications
  • Construction, Works, Engineering
  • Education, Curriculum and Teaching
  • Environment, Conservation and NRM
  • Facility / Grounds Management and Maintenance
  • Finance Management
  • Health - Medical and Nursing Management
  • HR, Training and Organisational Development
  • Information and Communications Technology
  • Information Services, Statistics, Records, Archives
  • Infrastructure Management - Transport, Utilities
  • Legal Officers and Practitioners
  • Librarians and Library Management
  • Management
  • Marketing
  • OH&S, Risk Management
  • Operations Management
  • Planning, Policy, Strategy
  • Printing, Design, Publishing, Web
  • Projects, Programs and Advisors
  • Property, Assets and Fleet Management
  • Public Relations and Media
  • Purchasing and Procurement
  • Quality Management
  • Science and Technical Research and Development
  • Security and Law Enforcement
  • Service Delivery
  • Sport and Recreation
  • Travel, Accommodation, Tourism
  • Wellbeing, Community / Social Services
Visit our privacy Policy for more information about our services, how New Statesman Media Group may use, process and share your personal data, including information on your rights in respect of your personal data and how you can unsubscribe from future marketing communications.
THANK YOU

Of those authoritarian populists, 19 per cent are classed as the right, and the remaining 29 per cent are classed as centrist. 

The smallest political tribe is that of the George Osbornes of this world, the liberal centre-right. Just 15 per cent of voters are in this camp. 

In other words, the only way the liberal left can gain power is by striking a deal with either the liberal right, or hoping the authoritarian populists sink into squabbles. 

“Although the liberal left tends to be the single largest group,” YouGov’s Joe Twyman told The Staggers, “Once you combine the authoritarian populists, it is larger.

“That’s important not just with Brexit and Donald Trump, but with France and Germany having elections next year.”

The YouGov study also highlights mainstream parties’ dilemma – 75 per cent of Labour voters are made up of the liberal left, with just 17 per cent belonging to the authoritarian populist centre and none to the right. 

By contrast, Ukip, which is gaining ground in traditional Labour heartlands, is almost entirely made up of authoritarian populists. 

Conservatives have the biggest coalition of voters, including 7 per cent on the liberal left, and surprisingly a slightly higher proportion of authoritarian populists than Ukip.

Authoritarian populists tend to be older – 35 per cent of centrist authoritarian populists are over 60, and 42 per cent of right-wing ones are, compared to just 24 per cent of the liberal left. They also tend to be less well-educated.

But liberal lefties should beware waiting for them to die off. “Because we don’t have historical data, we don’t know whether we have got an age effect, or a cohort effect,” Twyman said. 

“As young people get older, will they become more populist, or will the authoritarian populists die out? I imagine it is a bit of both.”

The research was produced for the annual YouGov-Cambridge Forum, a joint conference held by YouGov and the Cambridge Department of Politics and International Studies.

Content from our partners
The promise of prevention
How Labour hopes to make the UK a leader in green energy
Is now the time to rethink health and care for older people? With Age UK

Select and enter your email address Your weekly guide to the best writing on ideas, politics, books and culture every Saturday. The best way to sign up for The Saturday Read is via saturdayread.substack.com The New Statesman's quick and essential guide to the news and politics of the day. The best way to sign up for Morning Call is via morningcall.substack.com Our Thursday ideas newsletter, delving into philosophy, criticism, and intellectual history. The best way to sign up for The Salvo is via thesalvo.substack.com Stay up to date with NS events, subscription offers & updates. Weekly analysis of the shift to a new economy from the New Statesman's Spotlight on Policy team. The best way to sign up for The Green Transition is via spotlightonpolicy.substack.com
  • Administration / Office
  • Arts and Culture
  • Board Member
  • Business / Corporate Services
  • Client / Customer Services
  • Communications
  • Construction, Works, Engineering
  • Education, Curriculum and Teaching
  • Environment, Conservation and NRM
  • Facility / Grounds Management and Maintenance
  • Finance Management
  • Health - Medical and Nursing Management
  • HR, Training and Organisational Development
  • Information and Communications Technology
  • Information Services, Statistics, Records, Archives
  • Infrastructure Management - Transport, Utilities
  • Legal Officers and Practitioners
  • Librarians and Library Management
  • Management
  • Marketing
  • OH&S, Risk Management
  • Operations Management
  • Planning, Policy, Strategy
  • Printing, Design, Publishing, Web
  • Projects, Programs and Advisors
  • Property, Assets and Fleet Management
  • Public Relations and Media
  • Purchasing and Procurement
  • Quality Management
  • Science and Technical Research and Development
  • Security and Law Enforcement
  • Service Delivery
  • Sport and Recreation
  • Travel, Accommodation, Tourism
  • Wellbeing, Community / Social Services
Visit our privacy Policy for more information about our services, how New Statesman Media Group may use, process and share your personal data, including information on your rights in respect of your personal data and how you can unsubscribe from future marketing communications.
THANK YOU