After days of negotiations, David Cameron got the deal he was after: a seven year “emergency brake” on EU-area migrants claiming child benefits, an opt-out on “ever-closer union”, a recognition that Britain will keep the pound, and a “special status” for the United Kingdom.
Now, yes, if you look at the small print – and, indeed, the large print – the “deal” looks an awful lot like the status quo (unless you are an immigrant who has lived and worked in the United Kingdom for six years, of which, more below). “Ever-closer union” has the same status in the European Union today as the prayers at a wedding – most people recite it, few believe it. Britain now has the same status as the truculent athiest who stays quiet throughout – it may look different, but it’s just the same as the rest.
The chances that Britain would join the Euro – which is staving off collapse – or the Schengen area – which has collapsed already – were already below zero. But getting it written down – and crucially, with the promise of treaty change – is enough for Cameron to present it as a coup for Britain. (It is, unarguably, a bigger shift than that secured by Harold Wilson in his renegotiation.)
There is just one danger area for those who hoping that Britain votes to stay in the European Union – the seven-year “emergency brake”. The reality is that people move to Britain and within the European Union to work, not to claim – the number of European migrants on British benefits is vanisingly small. That, from 2020 onwards, new claimants will have their claims indexed to the economic conditions of their original country may mean that more families have a breadwinner in Britain and a family back home. But it does nothing to restrict or act as a “brake” on migration – and during the heat of a referendum campaign it may well unravel.
But for the forces of In, their greatest trump card is not the deal but the man who made it. As Cameron demonstrated in his press conference, he is still a polished performer and will attempt to revive the role he played so skillfully in the election campaign: him as the candidate of stability and security, his rivals as the choice of chaos and disarray. If Out is to have a chance, they need to find a politician who be as plausible a Prime Minister as Cameron. As Miliband found in May, that is harder than Cameron makes it seem.
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