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Commons Confidential: When Nigel met Rupert

Farage still harbours hopes of securing the Sun King's blessing.

To adapt the opening sentence of the Communist Manifesto: “A spectre is haunting Europe – the spectre of Ukipism.” The pinstriped, one-time Tory City broker Nigel Farage is on a media roll. Invitations to dinner with the supergrass Rupert Murdoch aren’t what they were, now that his media empire is busy shopping sources and hacks to the cops. Yet Farage still harbours hopes of securing the fading Sun King’s blessing at elections for the European Parliament in June next year and – who knows? – the May 2015 general election, too. And he may be on the brink of a breakthrough in his campaign to be treated as an equal of David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg on TV. Sky News will invite all four for a live debate ahead of the Euro elections. Farage, I gather, has already been approached. The other three must decide whether to confront him head-on or put their party leaders in the European Parliament on the box. They’re aware that if they lock horns next year with Farage, it would strengthen his case to be included in any general election debates. If two’s company and three’s a crowd, four’s a nightmare for the established troika.

Security at the recent cockroaches’ convention in Brighton was eccentric, even by Liberal Democrat standards. As my snout was sauntering into the Metropole Hotel, he was stopped by a steward. Was the chap searching for sharp objects or firearms? “Any leaflets in your bag, sir?” asked the steward. Assured that there were none, the snout was waved on his way. Ideas and dissenting views are what Clegg fears most.

Bit of a bust-up in Westminster between Welsh Labour MPs and the First Minister in Cardiff, Carwyn “the Job” Jones. He’s agitating for judicial powers to be devolved to Wales, arguing that it would outflank Plaid Cymru. MPs, who would have fewer Welsh laws to vote on in parliament, disagree. One sceptic muttered that if the Job wanted to outwit Plaid, he should go the whole hog and demand independence for Wales.

Jim Murphy’s “lazy Labour” warning in last week’s New Statesman prompted one of his colleagues to challenge the shadow trooper’s Stakhanovism. Murphy was one of the few Labour MPs, he said, not to campaign for John O’Farrell in the Eastleigh by-election. Things can only get bitter.

The conspiracy theorist turned- transport minister Norman “Barking” Baker doesn’t like to travel these days. He sent a video message to a meeting of passenger transport sorts from Britain’s metropolitan areas, apologising that he couldn’t get to their gathering. The soirée was in the pavilion tent on the terrace of the Mock-Gothic Fun Palace, which is less than half a mile from Baker’s lair. There was a time when Barking would have sniffed a conspiracy in a no-show.

Kevin Maguire is associate editor (politics) of the Daily Mirror

Kevin Maguire is Associate Editor (Politics) on the Daily Mirror and author of our Commons Confidential column on the high politics and low life in Westminster. An award-winning journalist, he is in frequent demand on television and radio and co-authored a book on great parliamentary scandals. He was formerly Chief Reporter on the Guardian and Labour Correspondent on the Daily Telegraph.

This article first appeared in the 18 March 2013 issue of the New Statesman, The German Problem

David Young
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The Tories are the zombie party: with an ageing, falling membership, still they stagger on to victory

One Labour MP in Brighton spotted a baby in a red Babygro and said to me: “There’s our next [Labour] prime minister.”

All football clubs have “ultras” – and, increasingly, political parties do, too: although, in the case of political parties, their loudest and angriest supporters are mostly found on the internet. The SNP got there first: in the early days of email, journalists at the Scotsman used to receive bilious missives complaining about its coverage – or, on occasion, lack of coverage – of what the Scottish National Party was up to. The rest soon followed, with Ukip, the Labour Party and even the crushed Liberal Democrats now boasting a furious electronic horde.

The exception is the Conservative Party. Britain’s table-topping team might have its first majority in 18 years and is widely expected in Westminster to remain in power for another decade. But it doesn’t have any fans. The party’s conference in Manchester, like Labour’s in Brighton, will be full to bursting. But where the Labour shindig is chock-full of members, trade unionists and hangers-on from the charitable sector, the Conservative gathering is a more corporate affair: at the fringes I attended last year, lobbyists outnumbered members by four to one. At one, the journalist Peter Oborne demanded to know how many people in the room were party members. It was standing room only – but just four people put their hands up.

During Grant Shapps’s stint at Conservative headquarters, serious attempts were made to revive membership. Shapps, a figure who is underrated because of his online blunders, and his co-chair Andrew Feldman were able to reverse some of the decline, but they were running just to stand still. Some of the biggest increases in membership came in urban centres where the Tories are not in contention to win a seat.

All this made the 2015 election win the triumph of a husk. A party with a membership in long-term and perhaps irreversible decline, which in many seats had no activists at all, delivered crushing defeats to its opponents across England and Wales.

Like José Mourinho’s sides, which, he once boasted, won “without the ball”, the Conservatives won without members. In Cumbria the party had no ground campaign and two paper candidates. But letters written by the Defence Secretary, Michael Fallon, were posted to every household where someone was employed making Trident submarines, warning that their jobs would be under threat under a Labour government. This helped the Tories come close to taking out both Labour MPs, John Woodcock in Barrow and Furness and Jamie Reed in Copeland. It was no small feat: Labour has held Barrow since 1992 and has won Copeland at every election it has fought.

The Tories have become the zombies of British politics: still moving though dead from the neck down. And not only moving, but thriving. One Labour MP in Brighton spotted a baby in a red Babygro and said to me: “There’s our next [Labour] prime minister.” His Conservative counterparts also believe that their rivals are out of power for at least a decade.

Yet there are more threats to the zombie Tories than commonly believed. The European referendum will cause endless trouble for their whips over the coming years. And for all there’s a spring in the Conservative step at the moment, the party has a majority of only 12 in the Commons. Parliamentary defeats could easily become commonplace. But now that Labour has elected Jeremy Corbyn – either a more consensual or a more chaotic leader than his predecessors, depending on your perspective – division within parties will become a feature, rather than a quirk, at Westminster. There will be “splits” aplenty on both sides of the House.

The bigger threat to Tory hegemony is the spending cuts to come, and the still vulnerable state of the British economy. In the last parliament, George Osborne’s cuts fell predominantly on the poorest and those working in the public sector. They were accompanied by an extravagant outlay to affluent retirees. As my colleague Helen Lewis wrote last week, over the next five years, cuts will fall on the sharp-elbowed middle classes, not just the vulnerable. Reductions in tax credits, so popular among voters in the abstract, may prove just as toxic as the poll tax and the abolition of the 10p bottom income-tax rate – both of which were popular until they were actually implemented.

Added to that, the British economy has what the economist Stephen King calls “the Titanic problem”: a surplus of icebergs, a deficit of lifeboats. Many of the levers used by Gordon Brown and Mervyn King in the last recession are not available to David Cameron and the chief of the Bank of England, Mark Carney: debt-funded fiscal stimulus is off the table because the public finances are already in the red. Interest rates are already at rock bottom.

Yet against that grim backdrop, the Conservatives retain the two trump cards that allowed them to win in May: questions about Labour’s economic competence, and the personal allure of David Cameron. The public is still convinced that the cuts are the result of “the mess” left by Labour, however unfair that charge may be. If a second crisis strikes, it could still be the Tories who feel the benefit, if they can convince voters that the poor state of the finances is still the result of New Labour excess rather than Cameroon failure.

As for Cameron, in 2015 it was his lead over Ed Miliband as Britons’ preferred prime minister that helped the Conservatives over the line. This time, it is his withdrawal from politics which could hand the Tories a victory even if the economy tanks or cuts become widely unpopular. He could absorb the hatred for the failures and the U-turns, and then hand over to a fresher face. Nicky Morgan or a Sajid Javid, say, could yet repeat John Major’s trick in 1992, breathing life into a seemingly doomed Conservative project. For Labour, the Tory zombie remains frustratingly lively. 

Stephen Bush is editor of the Staggers, the New Statesman’s political blog.

This article first appeared in the 01 October 2015 issue of the New Statesman, The Tory tide