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Ed’s in trouble with Leveson

There is growing wariness in Labour ranks about where the phone-hacking debate is heading.

Hugh Grant is starting to annoy people. “Who does the guy think he is?” one exasperated shadow cabinet member asked me. “Ed’s basically been out there, he’s taken a huge political gamble on hacking, and Grant is threatening all sorts if we don’t sign up to every dot and comma of Leveson.”

Another Labour MP expresses similar frustrations about Hacked Off, the actor’s anti-News International campaign vehicle. “When they were going out front with the Dowlers they had the public with them. Since they’ve started focusing on the celebrities, people are starting to switch off. It’s been a strategic mistake.”

There is growing wariness in Labour ranks about where the phone-hacking debate is heading. So far it has proved the making of Ed Miliband. It transformed perceptions of his leadership, unsettled David Cameron to the extent that questions were asked about his political survival and placed a series of judicial time bombs under the coalition.

Part of the concern for Labour is that the issue of a new regulatory regime for the British media is very clearly on Cameron’s radar. Recent months have brought a sudden stiffening of the Tories’ position on Lord Leveson and his inquiry. Even the Prime Minister has started making ambiguous noises when asked if he will implement the findings in full. “We don’t want heavy-handed state intervention,” he said last month. “We’ve got to have a free press; they’ve got to be free to uncover wrongdoing, to follow the evidence, to do the job in our democracy they need to do.”

Then there was the surprise promotion of Jeremy Hunt to Health Secretary in September’s cabinet reshuffle, a calculated V-sign to those who had claimed revelations of Hunt’s proximity to News International had ended his political career. And on Sunday, Eric Pickles, the Communities Secretary, made a well-timed intervention on Sky News. “We should be very, very, very reluctant to take on legislation,” he said. “It’s a balance and my view is that we should always balance in favour of a free press.”

There is alarm in the shadow cabinet that Labour is being forced down a cul-de-sac and has no strategic endgame. With the public interest in phone-hacking dissipating, the worry is that the Tories will outmanoeuvre Labour by signing up to parts of Leveson but stopping short of full statutory regulation.

That scenario does not just give Labour presentational problems: some MPs baulk at the prospect of fighting the next election with a manifesto commitment to introduce stiff regulation and therefore bringing the party into conflict with the press.

Red lines

Miliband is alive to the danger and has despatched Harriet Harman to open up a “one-on-one dialogue” with various newspaper editors to identify “red-line” areas. Harman is said to ensure that the discussions include a reminder that she once got prosecuted for leaking sensitive information to the media.

In truth, Miliband’s room for manoeuvre is limited. He has placed great store by his determination to bring a feral press pack to heel. His trusted lieutenant Tom Watson has informed him that he for one will entertain no backsliding from the party in this matter. And Hacked Off still has the leader’s ear.

When I spoke to members of the campaign shortly after they’d met Miliband at the Labour conference, they said he had left them confident he would implement Leveson in full.

Hugh Grant may well be starting to annoy people but he still has the capacity to influence them. And if the Tories are ushering Labour towards a Leveson-inspired cul-de-sac, Miliband appears to have little choice but to walk into it.

This article first appeared in the 05 November 2012 issue of the New Statesman, What if Romney wins?

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Q&A: What are tax credits and how do they work?

All you need to know about the government's plan to cut tax credits.

What are tax credits?

Tax credits are payments made regularly by the state into bank accounts to support families with children, or those who are in low-paid jobs. There are two types of tax credit: the working tax credit and the child tax credit.

What are they for?

To redistribute income to those less able to get by, or to provide for their children, on what they earn.

Are they similar to tax relief?

No. They don’t have much to do with tax. They’re more of a welfare thing. You don’t need to be a taxpayer to receive tax credits. It’s just that, unlike other benefits, they are based on the tax year and paid via the tax office.

Who is eligible?

Anyone aged over 16 (for child tax credits) and over 25 (for working tax credits) who normally lives in the UK can apply for them, depending on their income, the hours they work, whether they have a disability, and whether they pay for childcare.

What are their circumstances?

The more you earn, the less you are likely to receive. Single claimants must work at least 16 hours a week. Let’s take a full-time worker: if you work at least 30 hours a week, you are generally eligible for working tax credits if you earn less than £13,253 a year (if you’re single and don’t have children), or less than £18,023 (jointly as part of a couple without children but working at least 30 hours a week).

And for families?

A family with children and an income below about £32,200 can claim child tax credit. It used to be that the more children you have, the more you are eligible to receive – but George Osborne in his most recent Budget has limited child tax credit to two children.

How much money do you receive?

Again, this depends on your circumstances. The basic payment for a single claimant, or a joint claim by a couple, of working tax credits is £1,940 for the tax year. You can then receive extra, depending on your circumstances. For example, single parents can receive up to an additional £2,010, on top of the basic £1,940 payment; people who work more than 30 hours a week can receive up to an extra £810; and disabled workers up to £2,970. The average award of tax credit is £6,340 per year. Child tax credit claimants get £545 per year as a flat payment, plus £2,780 per child.

How many people claim tax credits?

About 4.5m people – the vast majority of these people (around 4m) have children.

How much does it cost the taxpayer?

The estimation is that they will cost the government £30bn in April 2015/16. That’s around 14 per cent of the £220bn welfare budget, which the Tories have pledged to cut by £12bn.

Who introduced this system?

New Labour. Gordon Brown, when he was Chancellor, developed tax credits in his first term. The system as we know it was established in April 2003.

Why did they do this?

To lift working people out of poverty, and to remove the disincentives to work believed to have been inculcated by welfare. The tax credit system made it more attractive for people depending on benefits to work, and gave those in low-paid jobs a helping hand.

Did it work?

Yes. Tax credits’ biggest achievement was lifting a record number of children out of poverty since the war. The proportion of children living below the poverty line fell from 35 per cent in 1998/9 to 19 per cent in 2012/13.

So what’s the problem?

Well, it’s a bit of a weird system in that it lets companies pay wages that are too low to live on without the state supplementing them. Many also criticise tax credits for allowing the minimum wage – also brought in by New Labour – to stagnate (ie. not keep up with the rate of inflation). David Cameron has called the system of taxing low earners and then handing them some money back via tax credits a “ridiculous merry-go-round”.

Then it’s a good thing to scrap them?

It would be fine if all those low earners and families struggling to get by would be given support in place of tax credits – a living wage, for example.

And that’s why the Tories are introducing a living wage...

That’s what they call it. But it’s not. The Chancellor announced in his most recent Budget a new minimum wage of £7.20 an hour for over-25s, rising to £9 by 2020. He called this the “national living wage” – it’s not, because the current living wage (which is calculated by the Living Wage Foundation, and currently non-compulsory) is already £9.15 in London and £7.85 in the rest of the country.

Will people be better off?

No. Quite the reverse. The IFS has said this slightly higher national minimum wage will not compensate working families who will be subjected to tax credit cuts; it is arithmetically impossible. The IFS director, Paul Johnson, commented: “Unequivocally, tax credit recipients in work will be made worse off by the measures in the Budget on average.” It has been calculated that 3.2m low-paid workers will have their pay packets cut by an average of £1,350 a year.

Could the government change its policy to avoid this?

The Prime Minister and his frontbenchers have been pretty stubborn about pushing on with the plan. In spite of criticism from all angles – the IFS, campaigners, Labour, The Sun – Cameron has ruled out a review of the policy in the Autumn Statement, which is on 25 November. But there is an alternative. The chair of parliament’s Work & Pensions Select Committee and Labour MP Frank Field has proposed what he calls a “cost neutral” tweak to the tax credit cuts.

How would this alternative work?

Currently, if your income is less than £6,420, you will receive the maximum amount of tax credits. That threshold is called the gross income threshold. Field wants to introduce a second gross income threshold of £13,100 (what you earn if you work 35 hours a week on minimum wage). Those earning a salary between those two thresholds would have their tax credits reduced at a slower rate on whatever they earn above £6,420 up to £13,100. The percentage of what you earn above the basic threshold that is deducted from your tax credits is called the taper rate, and it is currently at 41 per cent. In contrast to this plan, the Tories want to halve the income threshold to £3,850 a year and increase the taper rate to 48 per cent once you hit that threshold, which basically means you lose more tax credits, faster, the more you earn.

When will the tax credit cuts come in?

They will be imposed from April next year, barring a u-turn.

Anoosh Chakelian is deputy web editor at the New Statesman.