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The NHS needs to change - but how?

When the NHS was founded, chronic illnesses and long-term care were non-issues. Adapting to the new reality means big changes are needed.

The backlash from NHS staff culminating #ImInWorkJeremy shows how carefully politicians need to tread when advocating reform of the NHS. But the pressing and urgent need for reform is going to intensify as this Parliament wears on.

Even with the extra £8bn of funding announced in George Osborne’s Budget earlier this month, the task facing Simon Stevens, Chief Executive of the NHS, is huge. The health service must find £22bn of efficiency savings over the next five years, an unprecedented target not just in terms of the NHS, but for any western health service.

Reform will have to sit at the heart of any plan to achieve this. Indeed, Stevens’ NHS Five Year Forward View sets out a range of reforms which will help us get there including the integration of health and social care and better use of new technologies. But crucial to the success of the Forward View will be the NHS’s ability to empower patients.

Patient empowerment has been an aim of the system for over fifteen years. But as more and more people suffer from complex long-term conditions the majority of care will occur not in the hospital or GP‘s surgery, but at home. By 2025 the number of people with complex long-term conditions will be more than 18 million. Patients and their family taking on the carers role will be the ones making the difficult decisions. If these decisions are good ones, demand on the service will go down. Get them wrong and it will increase. Indeed, the evidence suggests that around one in five emergency admissions to hospital are potentially preventable.

Existing empowerment initiatives – which Stevens’ NHS Five Year Forward View focus on – such as ‘voice’ and ‘choice’ won’t change this. They empower people only after or as they are entering the health service. New empowerment models being pioneered across the country create good health, rather than respond to ill health. These initiatives include giving doctors the ability to prescribe social rather than just medical treatments (cooking classes, gym memberships and community social groups), creating peer networks among those with similar chronic conditions, and working with patients to set technology enabled care plans, which help patients make decisions remotely and allow more flexible contact with healthcare professionals.  

The challenge now for the NHS is how to ensure that every patient who could benefit from these empowerment initiatives can have access to them. IPPR is recommending a transformation fund for the NHS – something backed up by recent work by the Health Foundation and the Kings Fund. This would help spread reform and prevent extra funding being used for steady-state or business as usual.

More money should also be passed over to patients directly in the form of personalised budgets, with patients holding the purse strings. At the moment, less than half a million people benefit from personal budgets but by 2020, IPPR argues that all patients with a long-term condition should be offered one.

And finally, more money and finance should be devolved to the local level. ‘Devo-Manc’ is a good start, but the government promised ‘devolution on demand’ and demand there is. Notably, the ten core cities - Birmingham, Bristol, Liverpool, Leeds, Manchester, Newcastle, Nottingham and Sheffield, Cardiff and Glasgow – recently published ‘A Modern Charter for Local Freedom’ which expressed an interest in following suit. NHS England should start thinking about when and how it will meet this demand now: devolution of this kind can make care more responsive to local populations and should galvanise empowerment focussed reform.

These changes won’t be easy; but they are absolutely necessary. As Alan Milburn’s argues: “Tinkering with change will not save the NHS. It must stop treating patients as passive by-standers and instead enlist them as active agents of change.”

 

Harry Quilter-Pinner, co-author of Powerful Patients published by IPPR.

 

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Can Philip Hammond save the Conservatives from public anger at their DUP deal?

The Chancellor has the wriggle room to get close to the DUP's spending increase – but emotion matters more than facts in politics.

The magic money tree exists, and it is growing in Northern Ireland. That’s the attack line that Labour will throw at Theresa May in the wake of her £1bn deal with the DUP to keep her party in office.

It’s worth noting that while £1bn is a big deal in terms of Northern Ireland’s budget – just a touch under £10bn in 2016/17 – as far as the total expenditure of the British government goes, it’s peanuts.

The British government spent £778bn last year – we’re talking about spending an amount of money in Northern Ireland over the course of two years that the NHS loses in pen theft over the course of one in England. To match the increase in relative terms, you’d be looking at a £35bn increase in spending.

But, of course, political arguments are about gut instinct rather than actual numbers. The perception that the streets of Antrim are being paved by gold while the public realm in England, Scotland and Wales falls into disrepair is a real danger to the Conservatives.

But the good news for them is that last year Philip Hammond tweaked his targets to give himself greater headroom in case of a Brexit shock. Now the Tories have experienced a shock of a different kind – a Corbyn shock. That shock was partly due to the Labour leader’s good campaign and May’s bad campaign, but it was also powered by anger at cuts to schools and anger among NHS workers at Jeremy Hunt’s stewardship of the NHS. Conservative MPs have already made it clear to May that the party must not go to the country again while defending cuts to school spending.

Hammond can get to slightly under that £35bn and still stick to his targets. That will mean that the DUP still get to rave about their higher-than-average increase, while avoiding another election in which cuts to schools are front-and-centre. But whether that deprives Labour of their “cuts for you, but not for them” attack line is another question entirely. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to domestic and global politics.

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