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David Cameron and Alexis Tsipras forget the same thing: Germany has an electorate, too

Far from making David Cameron's prospects for a deal better, events in Greece show how poor the prospects for renegotiation are.

A charismatic and controversial politician is elected with 36 per cent of the vote promising European reform. Our country can't take anymore of this, he says. It's time for change, he says. 

Unfortunately, the other constituent nations of the European Union don't quite see it that way. They have their own problems: the German tabloids are all against a deal. The social democratic parties of the North are worried about political contagion and emboldening their own populist rivals. And Eastern Europe simply doesn't want to play ball. 

For Alexis Tspiras on Greek debt in 2015, read David Cameron on immigration in 2016?

Well, the comparison is potentially a little unfair: to Tspiras. No economist seriously disputes that Greece is not going to be able to pay back all of its debts -  no economist really believes that access to tax credits are the real reason why immigrants from Eastern Europe choose to come to Britain. It's the prospect of work, rather than in-work benefits, that makes Britain's labour market attractive. 

But broadly, the big miscalculation is there: forgetting that given a choice between short-term appeasement of their own electorates and long-term thinking, most politicians will choose the former. The one point in the last German election when Angela Merkel looked vulnerable was over the issue of further Greek bailouts. None of the beleagured social democratic parties - those few that remain in office, that is - want to provide any further signs that voting for a populist party to their left is a better bet. 

Even given the risk of crisis spreading throughout the Eurozone, the incentive for politicians in fiscally-hawkish Eastern Europe and Germany is still to hold out against a deal, although economic reality may force some form of climbdown. Britain's Prime Minister, however, lacks a carrot or a stick: he has nothing to offer the leaders of Latvia, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and the rest of "new Europe" in exchange for taking away tax credits from their own voters. (Taking away tax credits, Cameron may learn in short order, is not very popular with voters.) 

So, far from making "Europe" more willing to do a deal, the Greek crisis shows just how difficult Cameron's prospects are. He won't even have the IMF's research department on his side. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. He usually writes about politics. 

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The Prevent strategy needs a rethink, not a rebrand

A bad policy by any other name is still a bad policy.

Yesterday the Home Affairs Select Committee published its report on radicalization in the UK. While the focus of the coverage has been on its claim that social media companies like Facebook, Twitter and YouTube are “consciously failing” to combat the promotion of terrorism and extremism, it also reported on Prevent. The report rightly engages with criticism of Prevent, acknowledging how it has affected the Muslim community and calling for it to become more transparent:

“The concerns about Prevent amongst the communities most affected by it must be addressed. Otherwise it will continue to be viewed with suspicion by many, and by some as “toxic”… The government must be more transparent about what it is doing on the Prevent strategy, including by publicising its engagement activities, and providing updates on outcomes, through an easily accessible online portal.”

While this acknowledgement is good news, it is hard to see how real change will occur. As I have written previously, as Prevent has become more entrenched in British society, it has also become more secretive. For example, in August 2013, I lodged FOI requests to designated Prevent priority areas, asking for the most up-to-date Prevent funding information, including what projects received funding and details of any project engaging specifically with far-right extremism. I lodged almost identical requests between 2008 and 2009, all of which were successful. All but one of the 2013 requests were denied.

This denial is significant. Before the 2011 review, the Prevent strategy distributed money to help local authorities fight violent extremism and in doing so identified priority areas based solely on demographics. Any local authority with a Muslim population of at least five per cent was automatically given Prevent funding. The 2011 review pledged to end this. It further promised to expand Prevent to include far-right extremism and stop its use in community cohesion projects. Through these FOI requests I was trying to find out whether or not the 2011 pledges had been met. But with the blanket denial of information, I was left in the dark.

It is telling that the report’s concerns with Prevent are not new and have in fact been highlighted in several reports by the same Home Affairs Select Committee, as well as numerous reports by NGOs. But nothing has changed. In fact, the only change proposed by the report is to give Prevent a new name: Engage. But the problem was never the name. Prevent relies on the premise that terrorism and extremism are inherently connected with Islam, and until this is changed, it will continue to be at best counter-productive, and at worst, deeply discriminatory.

In his evidence to the committee, David Anderson, the independent ombudsman of terrorism legislation, has called for an independent review of the Prevent strategy. This would be a start. However, more is required. What is needed is a radical new approach to counter-terrorism and counter-extremism, one that targets all forms of extremism and that does not stigmatise or stereotype those affected.

Such an approach has been pioneered in the Danish town of Aarhus. Faced with increased numbers of youngsters leaving Aarhus for Syria, police officers made it clear that those who had travelled to Syria were welcome to come home, where they would receive help with going back to school, finding a place to live and whatever else was necessary for them to find their way back to Danish society.  Known as the ‘Aarhus model’, this approach focuses on inclusion, mentorship and non-criminalisation. It is the opposite of Prevent, which has from its very start framed British Muslims as a particularly deviant suspect community.

We need to change the narrative of counter-terrorism in the UK, but a narrative is not changed by a new title. Just as a rose by any other name would smell as sweet, a bad policy by any other name is still a bad policy. While the Home Affairs Select Committee concern about Prevent is welcomed, real action is needed. This will involve actually engaging with the Muslim community, listening to their concerns and not dismissing them as misunderstandings. It will require serious investigation of the damages caused by new Prevent statutory duty, something which the report does acknowledge as a concern.  Finally, real action on Prevent in particular, but extremism in general, will require developing a wide-ranging counter-extremism strategy that directly engages with far-right extremism. This has been notably absent from today’s report, even though far-right extremism is on the rise. After all, far-right extremists make up half of all counter-radicalization referrals in Yorkshire, and 30 per cent of the caseload in the east Midlands.

It will also require changing the way we think about those who are radicalized. The Aarhus model proves that such a change is possible. Radicalization is indeed a real problem, one imagines it will be even more so considering the country’s flagship counter-radicalization strategy remains problematic and ineffective. In the end, Prevent may be renamed a thousand times, but unless real effort is put in actually changing the strategy, it will remain toxic. 

Dr Maria Norris works at London School of Economics and Political Science. She tweets as @MariaWNorris.