Ed Miliband. Photo: Getty
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The left must think big to win

Whatever happens in May, the only way forward for the centre-left is to raises it sights.

The mood of crisis that accompanied the global financial crash shows no sign of lifting seven years on. On the contrary, talk of a ‘lost decade’ has begun to seem more like a best-case scenario than a jeremiad. This is about much more than economic recovery and squeezed living standards. It is about the loss of purpose and self-confidence affecting societies that no longer feel sure of their capacity to change for the better. 
This sense of loss is reflected in the downbeat atmosphere of the general election campaign and a growing disaffection with conventional politics. If the country’s prospects were as rosy as the Conservatives now claim, they would already be contemplating a sizeable majority. But daily experience leaves voters profoundly sceptical that any of Britain’s deep structural problems have been addressed. Once again growth is driven by consumer debt and asset-price inflation instead of exports, rising real wages and new investment. The benefits, such as they are, have not fed through to the majority. Britain feels like it is stagnating, not recovering. 

This presents the left with its own challenge. In navigating the politics of hard times, it has always been difficult to contend with rising pessimism and the instinct to hunker down. This time many mainstream parties of the centre-left are also struggling to account for their own roles in building an economic system that has failed to deliver the promise of sustainable growth and social progress.  In many parts of continental Europe the established representatives of social democracy are no longer seen as credible agents of change and are losing ground to new populist movements of left and right. The collapse of Pasok in Greece is an extreme example of a wider trend.

In Britain, after thirteen years in power, Labour could list many achievements to its credit from the minimum wage to the reduction in child poverty. But the party could no longer claim either to have tamed global capitalism or ended boom and bust. An early decision was taken to leave the basic structure of the economy untouched and focus on distributing the proceeds of growth to achieve progressive social goals. Unfortunately, the capacities of government were insufficient to curb the widening power imbalances between the employee and employer and between the consumer and the global corporates.

Despite a willingness to promote social justice and a shift to a low carbon economy, public spending alone was unable to compensate for the maladies of an unregulated market. The state assumed expensive new liabilities as business retreated from its responsibilities to pay a living wage, provide workplace pensions and improve the national skills base. Yet even this heroic effort at redistribution failed to stop inequalities from widening and social mobility from collapsing. When a runaway market eventually crashed, the state was forced to pick up the bill for that as well. A crisis of the free market was thus transformed into a story about the folly of big government.

To restore its political fortunes, the mainstream left will have to do more than become better managers and enablers than the Conservatives. The promise of a more enlightened version of the status quo won’t work, either as an electoral strategy or as a programme for national recovery. The country’s problems are too big. Chief among them is the need to deal with the vast structural imbalances that led to the economic crisis and remain completely unresolved after five years of Conservative-led austerity. Creating a path for sustainable, long-term recovery means restoring balance between public and private, industry and finance, exports and imports, wage growth and consumer debt, North and South, the many and the few. Anything less than this would leave Britain treading water until the next crisis strikes.

Since markets are not self-correcting, and since the levers of public finance are much weaker today than they were in the Blair-Brown era, the only realistic route to reform involves grappling with the tough questions about the nature of British capitalism that New Labour shied away from in 1997. How can we reverse the financialisation of our economy? What should be done to make multinational companies and the super rich pay their fare share of tax? How do we replace a business culture based on short-term profit and financial engineering with one geared towards long-term success? What new forms of ownership and participation would help to spread wealth and democratise our economy? How do we restore the link between earnings and growth? What can be done to reduce inequalities between places and between generations?
Calls for radical change are often dismissed as idealistic, but recent experience would suggest that it is those still hoping to achieve better social outcomes within the existing economic settlement that are guilty of wishful thinking. The only practical strategy for change is one that envisages a significant alteration to the balance of wealth and power in society. Inevitably this means confronting the determined resistance of those who have profited most from an economic system that has failed the country. The centre-left needs to be strong enough to deal with the political consequences of standing up to these powerful vested interests because the alternative is one that leaves Britain locked in a cycle of crisis and stagnation. 

Strategies based on progressive minimalism and policy triangulation are now redundant. Retail politics still has its place, but the targeting of policy commitments at specific groups of voters will only convince if it illustrates a bigger reform project aimed at making Britain work in the interests of the majority. If it is intended to cover the absence of such a project, it will fail. In the absence of anything better, politics will become trapped between an inert centrism that says nothing much can change and a new populism (advanced in different ways by UKIP and the SNP) preaching false solutions based on a retreat behind national borders.
The only way forward for the centre-left is to raise its sights. This will remain true whatever happens on May 7. If a government of the centre-left assumes office, it is likely to do so with a hold on power that is fragile at first. It will only be able to build the momentum and legitimacy needed to strengthen its position by showing that it has the vision and the will to bring about deep and lasting change. If the centre-left loses, it will not restore it fortunes in opposition by becoming more conventional and cautious. Either way, realism will require radicalism.

Paul Hackett is director of the Smith Institute. David Clark is founder and editor of the blog site Shifting Grounds. The two organisations are working together to promote a new agenda for the British centre-left.

 

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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