We are the masters now? Photo:Getty
Show Hide image

Here's why the Conservatives are banging on and on about the SNP

A new poll confirms what the Conservatives been saying privately, and bodes ill for Labour after the election.

A while back, I reported on private Conservative polling that showed that the fear of an SNP-Labour pact was putting the frighteners up swing voters in the marginals. The strategy also figures into the Liberal campaign message, such as it is.

Now ComRes have helpfully polled publicly what the Tories and the Liberal Democrats have been testing privately. A new poll for ITV on possible coalition partners finds that just 19 per cent of voters want the SNP to play a role in the next Westminster government, with 59 per cent opposed.

Happily for Labour, opposition to the SNP in government is significantly lower in London and Wales, where the party is hoping it will outperform the national swing, picking up seats like Ilford North, the Vale of Glamorgan, Battersea and Aberconwy to bolster its hopes of being the largest party, but it is still high, at 48% in Wales and 49% in London. But what will trouble Labour MPs and strategists is the level of opposition to any SNP presence in government in the East of England, the Midlands and the North West, in the areas where the election will be decided.

That said, while this poll confirms that the Tory campaign is based on more than wishful thinking – and Labour candidates in the marginals also report that voters are concerned about a Labour-SNP pact in the Commons – I’m still dubious about its utility as a campaign tactic. One Labour insider points out that many of the concerns about Ed Miliband palling up with Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond “are actually about Ed’s ratings and his ability to take tough decisions”. If Miliband is able to continue the positive air war he has enjoyed so far then the matter simply won’t arise. And if voters’ first preference is to have a Labour government free of SNP influence, their best bet in the Labour-Tory battles in England and Wales is still a vote for Labour, rather than the Conservatives.

But what should really trouble Labour isn’t if the Tory attack does damage in the campaign’s last 16 days, but what will happen to Labour’s vote in the Midlands and the North if the party, as now looks more likely than not, ends up in office thanks to the support of the Scottish Nationalists.

Stephen Bush is editor of the Staggers, the New Statesman’s political blog. He usually writes about politics. 

#Match4Lara
Show Hide image

#Match4Lara: Lara has found her match, but the search for mixed-race donors isn't over

A UK blood cancer charity has seen an "unprecedented spike" in donors from mixed race and ethnic minority backgrounds since the campaign started. 

Lara Casalotti, the 24-year-old known round the world for her family's race to find her a stem cell donor, has found her match. As long as all goes ahead as planned, she will undergo a transplant in March.

Casalotti was diagnosed with acute myeloid leukaemia in December, and doctors predicted that she would need a stem cell transplant by April. As I wrote a few weeks ago, her Thai-Italian heritage was a stumbling block, both thanks to biology (successful donors tend to fit your racial profile), and the fact that mixed-race people only make up around 3 per cent of international stem cell registries. The number of non-mixed minorities is also relatively low. 

That's why Casalotti's family launched a high profile campaign in the US, Thailand, Italy and the US to encourage more people - especially those from mixed or minority backgrounds - to register. It worked: the family estimates that upwards of 20,000 people have signed up through the campaign in less than a month.

Anthony Nolan, the blood cancer charity, also reported an "unprecedented spike" of donors from black, Asian, ethcnic minority or mixed race backgrounds. At certain points in the campaign over half of those signing up were from these groups, the highest proportion ever seen by the charity. 

Interestingly, it's not particularly likely that the campaign found Casalotti her match. Patient confidentiality regulations protect the nationality and identity of the donor, but Emily Rosselli from Anthony Nolan tells me that most patients don't find their donors through individual campaigns: 

 It’s usually unlikely that an individual finds their own match through their own campaign purely because there are tens of thousands of tissue types out there and hundreds of people around the world joining donor registers every day (which currently stand at 26 million).

Though we can't know for sure, it's more likely that Casalotti's campaign will help scores of people from these backgrounds in future, as it has (and may continue to) increased donations from much-needed groups. To that end, the Match4Lara campaign is continuing: the family has said that drives and events over the next few weeks will go ahead. 

You can sign up to the registry in your country via the Match4Lara website here.

Barbara Speed is a technology and digital culture writer at the New Statesman and a staff writer at CityMetric.