Campaigners arguing for action on tax avoidance yesterday. Photo: Getty.
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The scariest bit of the budget — the one graph you need to know

Today's headlines hide the most important, and least reassuring, fact in yesterday’s Budget.

Read this piece on our election site, May2015.com.

“Sun shines on savers”, “UK booming…Jobs at record high”, “The comeback king”, “End of tax on savings”. The four papers likely to back the Tories in May – the Mail, the Sun, the Times and the Telegraph – have delivered their verdict on the Budget, and they paint a pleasant picture.

But the headlines hide the most important, and least reassuring, fact in yesterday’s Budget: to eliminate the deficit, Osborne is going to cut spending more severely in the next two years than the coalition has in any year so far.

Here’s the key graph. It’s as trustworthy as they come. It was made by the Office for Budget Responsibility – an independent body that exists to analyse the public finances.

The Tories are planning to cut spending by 5.1 per cent in 2016-17 and 4.6 per cent in 2017-18. That’s greater than in any year since austerity began in 2010, and nearly twice as much as the average cut over the past five years (2.8 per cent).

The cuts scheduled for next year are more than four times greater than the cuts Britain is facing over the next twelve months.

Next year's cuts will be four times greater than those Britain is facing this year.

After two years of deep cuts (2016-17 and 2017-18), Osborne plans to return to this year’s more moderate levels of austerity in 2018-19, before increasing spending dramatically in 2019-20 (by 4.3 per cent). [1]

This is purely political. By cutting spending sharply at first, Osborne can deliver a final dose of medicine and then suddenly start spending just before the 2020 election.

There is no economic basis for this. As the FT put it, an “ever more annoyed” Robert Chote, chair of the OBR, tersely described Osborne’s plan as a “rollercoaster”. The Times, in contrast to their front-page, concurred, with a double page spread on how “Experts warn of a rollercoaster ride in row over public spending”.


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Instead of this “bonkers” approach (the Guardian’s Patrick Wintour), Osborne could balance the cuts across all four years. The austerity in each year would be lower than the average over the past five years, and far more manageable for the services set to be slashed.

Government spending isn’t abstract. Osborne can’t just take a few pennies of one year, add them back in the next, and easily replace the services he’s crippled.

[1] These figures are on p.129 of the report.

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Andy Burnham's full speech on attack: "Manchester is waking up to the most difficult of dawns"

"We are grieving today, but we are strong."

Following Monday night's terror attack on an Ariana Grande concert at the Manchester Arena, newly elected mayor of the city Andy Burnham, gave a speech outside Manchester Town Hall on Tuesday morning, the full text of which is below: 

After our darkest of nights, Manchester is today waking up to the most difficult of dawns. 

It’s hard to believe what has happened here in the last few hours and to put into words the shock, anger and hurt that we feel today.

These were children, young people and their families that those responsible chose to terrorise and kill.

This was an evil act. Our first thoughts are with the families of those killed and injured. And we will do whatever we can to support them.

We are grieving today, but we are strong. Today it will be business as usual as far as possible in our great city.

I want to thank the hundreds of police, fire and ambulance staff who worked throughout the night in the most difficult circumstances imaginable.

We have had messages of support from cities around the country and across the world, and we want to thank them for that.

But lastly I wanted to thank the people of Manchester. Even in the minute after the attack, they opened their doors to strangers and drove them away from danger.

They gave the best possible immediate response to those who seek to divide us and it will be that spirit of Manchester that will prevail and hold us together.

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