Campaigners arguing for action on tax avoidance yesterday. Photo: Getty.
Show Hide image

The scariest bit of the budget — the one graph you need to know

Today's headlines hide the most important, and least reassuring, fact in yesterday’s Budget.

Read this piece on our election site, May2015.com.

“Sun shines on savers”, “UK booming…Jobs at record high”, “The comeback king”, “End of tax on savings”. The four papers likely to back the Tories in May – the Mail, the Sun, the Times and the Telegraph – have delivered their verdict on the Budget, and they paint a pleasant picture.

But the headlines hide the most important, and least reassuring, fact in yesterday’s Budget: to eliminate the deficit, Osborne is going to cut spending more severely in the next two years than the coalition has in any year so far.

Here’s the key graph. It’s as trustworthy as they come. It was made by the Office for Budget Responsibility – an independent body that exists to analyse the public finances.

The Tories are planning to cut spending by 5.1 per cent in 2016-17 and 4.6 per cent in 2017-18. That’s greater than in any year since austerity began in 2010, and nearly twice as much as the average cut over the past five years (2.8 per cent).

The cuts scheduled for next year are more than four times greater than the cuts Britain is facing over the next twelve months.

Next year's cuts will be four times greater than those Britain is facing this year.

After two years of deep cuts (2016-17 and 2017-18), Osborne plans to return to this year’s more moderate levels of austerity in 2018-19, before increasing spending dramatically in 2019-20 (by 4.3 per cent). [1]

This is purely political. By cutting spending sharply at first, Osborne can deliver a final dose of medicine and then suddenly start spending just before the 2020 election.

There is no economic basis for this. As the FT put it, an “ever more annoyed” Robert Chote, chair of the OBR, tersely described Osborne’s plan as a “rollercoaster”. The Times, in contrast to their front-page, concurred, with a double page spread on how “Experts warn of a rollercoaster ride in row over public spending”.


FullSizeRender (1)

Instead of this “bonkers” approach (the Guardian’s Patrick Wintour), Osborne could balance the cuts across all four years. The austerity in each year would be lower than the average over the past five years, and far more manageable for the services set to be slashed.

Government spending isn’t abstract. Osborne can’t just take a few pennies of one year, add them back in the next, and easily replace the services he’s crippled.

[1] These figures are on p.129 of the report.

Explore May2015.com.

May2015 is the New Statesman's new elections site. Explore it for data, interviews and ideas on the general election.

Steve Garry
Show Hide image

The footie is back. Three weeks in and what have we learned so far?

Barcleys, boots and big names... the Prem is back.

Another season, another reason for making whoopee cushions and giving them to Spurs fans to cheer them up during the long winter afternoons ahead. What have we learned so far?

Big names are vital. Just ask the manager of the Man United shop. The arrival of Schneiderlin and Schweinsteiger has done wonders for the sale of repro tops and they’ve run out of letters. Benedict Cumberbatch, please join Carlisle United. They’re desperate for some extra income.

Beards are still in. The whole Prem is bristling with them, the skinniest, weediest player convinced he’s Andrea Pirlo. Even my young friend and neighbour Ed Miliband has grown a beard, according to his holiday snaps. Sign him.

Boots Not always had my best specs on, but here and abroad I detect a new form of bootee creeping in – slightly higher on the ankle, not heavy-plated as in the old days but very light, probably made from the bums of newborn babies.

Barclays Still driving me mad. Now it’s screaming from the perimeter boards that it’s “Championing the true Spirit of the Game”. What the hell does that mean? Thank God this is its last season as proud sponsor of the Prem.

Pitches Some groundsmen have clearly been on the weeds. How else can you explain the Stoke pitch suddenly having concentric circles, while Southampton and Portsmouth have acquired tartan stripes? Go easy on the mowers, chaps. Footballers find it hard enough to pass in straight lines.

Strips Have you seen the Everton third kit top? Like a cheap market-stall T-shirt, but the colour, my dears, the colour is gorgeous – it’s Thames green. Yes, the very same we painted our front door back in the Seventies. The whole street copied, then le toot middle classes everywhere.

Scott Spedding Which international team do you think he plays for? I switched on the telly to find it was rugby, heard his name and thought, goodo, must be Scotland, come on, Scotland. Turned out to be the England-France game. Hmm, must be a member of that famous Cumbrian family, the Speddings from Mirehouse, where Tennyson imagined King Arthur’s Excalibur coming out the lake. Blow me, Scott Spedding turns out to be a Frenchman. Though he only acquired French citizenship last year, having been born and bred in South Africa. What’s in a name, eh?

Footballers are just so last season. Wayne Rooney and Harry Kane can’t score. The really good ones won’t come here – all we get is the crocks, the elderly, the bench-warmers, yet still we look to them to be our saviour. Oh my God, let’s hope we sign Falcao, he’s a genius, will make all the difference, so prayed all the Man United fans. Hold on: Chelsea fans. I’ve forgotten now where he went. They seek him here, they seek him there, is he alive or on the stairs, who feckin’ cares?

John Stones of Everton – brilliant season so far, now he is a genius, the solution to all of Chelsea’s problems, the heir to John Terry, captain of England for decades. Once he gets out of short trousers and learns to tie his own laces . . .

Managers are the real interest. So refreshing to have three young British managers in the Prem – Alex Neil at Norwich (34), Eddie Howe at Bournemouth (37) and that old hand at Swansea, Garry Monk, (36). Young Master Howe looks like a ball boy. Or a tea boy.

Mourinho is, of course, the main attraction. He has given us the best start to any of his seasons on this planet. Can you ever take your eyes off him? That handsome hooded look, that sarcastic sneer, the imperious hand in the air – and in his hair – all those languages, he’s so clearly brilliant, and yet, like many clever people, often lacking in common sense. How could he come down so heavily on Eva Carneiro, his Chelsea doctor? Just because you’re losing? Yes, José has been the best fun so far – plus Chelsea’s poor start. God, please don’t let him fall out with Abramovich. José, we need you.

Hunter Davies is a journalist, broadcaster and profilic author perhaps best known for writing about the Beatles. He is an ardent Tottenham fan and writes a regular column on football for the New Statesman.

This article first appeared in the 27 August 2015 issue of the New Statesman, Isis and the new barbarism