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Labour hit Cameron on debates - but the status quo favours Miliband

Labour have released a video attacking David Cameron for ducking out of the debates. But it may well be Ed Miliband who has the most to gain if they don't take place. 

Labour have released a video contrasting the David Cameron of 2009-10 - who thought televised debates were the best thing since sliced bread - with the David Cameron of 2014-5 - who has absolutely no intention in taking part in the debates. 

The party badly needs the issue to stay in the news if they're to have any hope of securing the debate that the Labour leadership believe will allow Ed Miliband to overcome the public's negative perceptions of him. But in the absence of a particularly striking third-day angle for the story, it seems likely that the Prime Minister will get away with sabotaging the debates.

That might not be as bad news for Labour as either Team Miliband or Downing Street suppose. Yes, some of the public opprobium towards Miliband is due to a hostile media. But the some of it is down to Miliband and his team. It wasn't the fault of the Sun that Miliband was unable to name the price of a weekly shop, something that, in the words of one Labour strategist: "I would never let even a council candidate leave the office without that information" or the malice of the Mail that caused Miliband to claim he "feels respect" when he sees a white van.  The danger for Labour in the debates is it is easy to imagine Miliband beating Cameron heavily - but it's equally plausible that he could self-destruct.

As for the Conservative campaign, yes, the messaging is disciplined and the campaign is slick. But the polls don't seem to be moving, their only plausible coalition partner is flatlining, they have realistic hopes of making Labour gains in just five seats, and will certainly lose at least twice that to Labour. A lot of the narrative around the Tory campaign is based on the idea, as I say on this week's podcast, that when the voters see the whites of Miliband's eyes, they will vote Conservative. If that doesn't happen, CCHQ's campaign will go down in history as a bore-a-thon that was too scared of Ed Miliband to take him on directly. 

Stephen Bush is editor of the Staggers, the New Statesman’s political blog.

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The Fire Brigades Union reaffiliates to Labour - what does it mean?

Any union rejoining Labour will be welcomed by most in the party - but the impact on the party's internal politics will be smaller than you think.

The Fire Brigades Union (FBU) has voted to reaffiliate to the Labour party, in what is seen as a boost to Jeremy Corbyn. What does it mean for Labour’s internal politics?

Firstly, technically, the FBU has never affliated before as they are notionally part of the civil service - however, following the firefighters' strike in 2004, they decisively broke with Labour.

The main impact will be felt on the floor of Labour party conference. Although the FBU’s membership – at around 38,000 – is too small to have a material effect on the outcome of votes themselves, it will change the tenor of the motions put before party conference.

The FBU’s leadership is not only to the left of most unions in the Trades Union Congress (TUC), it is more inclined to bring motions relating to foreign affairs than other unions with similar politics (it is more internationalist in focus than, say, the PCS, another union that may affiliate due to Corbyn’s leadership). Motions on Israel/Palestine, the nuclear deterrent, and other issues, will find more support from FBU delegates than it has from other affiliated trade unions.

In terms of the balance of power between the affiliated unions themselves, the FBU’s re-entry into Labour politics is unlikely to be much of a gamechanger. Trade union positions, elected by trade union delegates at conference, are unlikely to be moved leftwards by the reaffiliation of the FBU. Unite, the GMB, Unison and Usdaw are all large enough to all-but-guarantee themselves a seat around the NEC. Community, a small centrist union, has already lost its place on the NEC in favour of the bakers’ union, which is more aligned to Tom Watson than Jeremy Corbyn.

Matt Wrack, the FBU’s General Secretary, will be a genuine ally to Corbyn and John McDonnell. Len McCluskey and Dave Prentis were both bounced into endorsing Corbyn by their executives and did so less than wholeheartedly. Tim Roache, the newly-elected General Secretary of the GMB, has publicly supported Corbyn but is seen as a more moderate voice at the TUC. Only Dave Ward of the Communication Workers’ Union, who lent staff and resources to both Corbyn’s campaign team and to the parliamentary staff of Corbyn and McDonnell, is truly on side.

The impact of reaffiliation may be felt more keenly in local parties. The FBU’s membership looks small in real terms compared Unite and Unison have memberships of over a million, while the GMB and Usdaw are around the half-a-million mark, but is much more impressive when you consider that there are just 48,000 firefighters in Britain. This may make them more likely to participate in internal elections than other affiliated trade unionists, just 60,000 of whom voted in the Labour leadership election in 2015. However, it is worth noting that it is statistically unlikely most firefighters are Corbynites - those that are will mostly have already joined themselves. The affiliation, while a morale boost for many in the Labour party, is unlikely to prove as significant to the direction of the party as the outcome of Unison’s general secretary election or the struggle for power at the top of Unite in 2018. 

Stephen Bush is editor of the Staggers, the New Statesman’s political blog.