Is this his moment? Photo: Getty
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Have Labour pulled ahead? It's complicated

The first post-debate poll has good news for Labour. But don't get too excited. 

Labour are in good spirits this morning after the first post-debate poll showed the party taking a four-point lead, and putting the party a point ahead in our rolling poll.

It’s worth remembering that it’s only one poll. David Cameron will surely not be so underwhelming in the next debate, this Thursday on ITV – in the Sunday Times, Tim Shipman and James Lyons report that the Prime Minister is studying the performance of Hilary Clinton and Mitt Romney in their multi-candidate debates to learn what to do and not do.

Remember too – spoiler alert for those of you who haven’t yet watched Coalition, the new drama about the last election – that in the first post-debate polling last time, the Liberal Democrats surged to 30 per cent in the polls, only to end up on 23 per cent on the day itself.

And it’s worth noting that YouGov seem more vulnerable than other pollsters to differential response rates – they picked up a bigger swing towards Yes in the last days of that campaign, detected a mini-Tory bounce after David Cameron’s conference speech, and are now showing a debate boost for Ed Miliband. Beneath the headline figures, government approval is basically unchanged, at minus 11 percent compared to minus 12 per cent before the debates. But the Labour leader’s ratings on general approval and economic competence are greatly improved.

On the other hand, Labour’s campaign appears to be finding some rhythm while the Conservatives are beginning to get the jitters. Tory MPs were being told last year that they would overhaul Labour in January, then February, then the Easter Weekend.  Labour’s “40 in 40” plan – each day from now until polling day will be defined by a different policy – should keep everyone on the same hymn sheet while giving the party’s big beasts enough moments in the sun to keep everyone happy.

So what we do know is that Miliband’s performance in the debates has put a spring in the step of his activists and parliamentary candidates. It’s not yet clear whether that feelgood factor has spread any further than that.

Update 30/03/15: The latest ComRes poll for the Daily Mail has the Conservatives ahead by four points on 36 per cent to 32 per cent. I wouldn't read any more into it than the YouGov poll showing a Labour lead.

 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.

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Donald Trump vs Barack Obama: How the inauguration speeches compared

We compared the two presidents on trade, foreign affairs and climate change – so you (really, really) don't have to.

After watching Donald Trump's inaugural address, what better way to get rid of the last few dregs of hope than by comparing what he said with Barack Obama's address from 2009? 

Both thanked the previous President, with Trump calling the Obamas "magnificent", and pledged to reform Washington, but the comparison ended there. 

Here is what each of them said: 

On American jobs

Obama:

The state of our economy calls for action, bold and swift.  And we will act, not only to create new jobs, but to lay a new foundation for growth.  We will build the roads and bridges, the electric grids and digital lines that feed our commerce and bind us together.  We'll restore science to its rightful place, and wield technology's wonders to raise health care's quality and lower its cost.  We will harness the sun and the winds and the soil to fuel our cars and run our factories.  And we will transform our schools and colleges and universities to meet the demands of a new age.

Trump:

For many decades we've enriched foreign industry at the expense of American industry, subsidized the armies of other countries while allowing for the very sad depletion of our military.

One by one, the factories shuttered and left our shores with not even a thought about the millions and millions of American workers that were left behind.

Obama had a plan for growth. Trump just blames the rest of the world...

On global warming

Obama:

With old friends and former foes, we'll work tirelessly to lessen the nuclear threat, and roll back the specter of a warming planet.

Trump:

On the Middle East:

Obama:

To the Muslim world, we seek a new way forward, based on mutual interest and mutual respect. To those leaders around the globe who seek to sow conflict, or blame their society's ills on the West, know that your people will judge you on what you can build, not what you destroy. 

Trump:

We will re-enforce old alliances and form new ones and unite the civilized world against radical Islamic terrorism, which we will eradicate completely from the face of the earth.

On “greatness”

Obama:

In reaffirming the greatness of our nation we understand that greatness is never a given. It must be earned.

Trump:

America will start winning again, winning like never before.

 

On trade

Obama:

This is the journey we continue today.  We remain the most prosperous, powerful nation on Earth.  Our workers are no less productive than when this crisis began.  Our minds are no less inventive, our goods and services no less needed than they were last week, or last month, or last year.  Our capacity remains undiminished.  

Trump:

We must protect our borders from the ravages of other countries making our product, stealing our companies and destroying our jobs.

Protection will lead to great prosperity and strength. I will fight for you with every breath in my body, and I will never ever let you down.

Stephanie Boland is digital assistant at the New Statesman. She tweets at @stephanieboland